Tuesday, June 26, 2007

Hasek and His Effect

Ansar Khan seems to think the Wings are going to sign Hasek for a base salary of 2.5M. That's about 1M more than I expected, and from the sound of it, about 1M more than Holland expected. Anyway, whatever it takes to get Dom back, so let's look at where it leaves the Wings.

With both salary-cap scenarios I assume Dom gets 2.5/1yr, and that we trade Lilja (my reasoning; in short, saves a little salary, makes room for the kids, his value is high after the playoffs, and he'll leave next summer). The Wings can either keep Schneider and Bert, or keep Markov and grab Smyth. Here's the math:

Bert, Schneids in, Markov out

Holland has said 5.25M is the max for Schneider, but as you can see they can fit him at 6M, which I believe is his value and which I believe he will certainly get on the open market (maybe from the Ducks... blech). The only problem is that Schneider probably wants more than one year, but the Wings must sign him (or Markov) to a 1-yr deal to maintain flexibility for the impending Lidstrom FA and Zetterberg extension in 08.

Schneider out, Markov, Smyth in

If the Wings go with Markov they have room for Smyth, who I estimate at 6M. They must give Markov only a 1-yr deal, however. With Markov's, Draper's, and Hasek's contracts expiring in 08, it frees up 7.63M to extend Zetterberg, potentially give Lidstrom a raise (I doubt it but they have to be ready to do so if needed), and also re-sign Dan Cleary who will be a FA.

This all also assumes a 48.5M cap, so if it is closer to 51M, that's just more emergency money and makes things easier next summer for extending Zetterberg.

If I had to pick one of these, it would be Schneider/Bertuzzi, although I don't know if it will happen because of what Holland has said. If it doesn't, Markov/Smyth doesn't look bad at all.