yzerman is god

Hoss & the Red Wing Raiders

2009-07-01T12:09:00.000-07:00

Chicago has a very simple player acquisition strategy: raid the Red Wings. First Jason Williams, then Robert Lang and Brent Sopel, now a pair of Slovak wingers (albeit at opposite ends of the "who gives a shit" spectrum) Marian Hossa and Tomas Kopecky. I don't say this to put down the Blackhawks; it's a good strategy. Anyone qualified to be anywhere on the depth chart of the Detroit Red Wings, the deepest franchise in hockey, is qualified to be on your team, and is probably an improvement. I mean look at Kyle Quincey. If I was Dave Tallon I'd be looking at Mikael Sammuelsson too, and either Brett Lebda or Derek Meech, whichever one gets inevitably dumped to make room for Jonathon Ericsson. Anyone Ken Holland touches turns to gold.

As for Hossa, he made about the best move he could have. He learned his lesson the hard way with the Wings: even though he made the best possible guess as to which team could take him to the Stanley Cup, he still lost, and in fact lost in the worst possible way; game 7 against his former club. Going forward he probably had two priorities balanced: winning (which as we know is very important to him) and getting appropriate value for his skill (which is only fair). Dave Tallon took a page out of Kenny Holland's playbook by giving him a Franzen-type deal, just a slightly higher price tag; ultra-long term, front-loaded. Hossa has a great chance to win a Cup. It's almost impossible to imagine Chicago not getting a championship (or two) in the next decade. They've assembled a great team and the only questions now are, can they get the goaltending? and, when will the wonder twins mature to the level necessary to grab the chalice? The Wings and the Pens will be around a long, long time, but this past year showed no Dynasty can win them all, not these days anyway, and every team has a shot.

I hope Wings fans don't boo Hossa, who surely would have stayed if Holland could have offered him anything even remotely close to market value. He didn't just ask Hossa for a discount, he asked him for a blowout bonanza. I'll say to Hossa (and Kopecky) what I said to Cheli (although not with the same degree of emotion): thanks for the memories, good luck with your new team, no hard feelings.

Thanks for the memories, Cheli

2009-06-22T20:05:00.000-07:00

Simply a legend, classy to the end, instrumental to the success of the Dynasty over the last decade.

it wouldn't be so good when they win

2009-06-12T23:17:00.000-07:00

if it weren't so motherfucking awful when the lose.

that's all i got.

Osgood for Conn

2009-05-31T20:59:00.000-07:00

So the excitement of the Western Conference Final may have proved a little too much for me, since about 5 hours after I was heading to the ER with some heart issues. Fortunately I was released on Friday, in plenty of time to catch Game 1 on a nice CBC feed and not the NBC crap I would have had to have watched at the University of Chicago Medical Center. Not that the gap in posting that resulted was noticeable at all compared to my usual Lang-like absences.

Anyway. Osgood for Conn. Can it be anyone else at this point? Two fluky goals last night. Two fluky goals tonight. This team has not been as dominant, not nearly as much, as last year's team. I don't know what it is. The Hangover, the Lack of Hunger, the Lack of Datsyuk, Draper, the injuries to the Perfect Human. This team just isn't firing on all cylinders like last year.

Except one is firing, like, motherfucking double time. Lidstrom said it best: it's the best Ozzy has played. Period. It feels good. It feels quite good to finally be THAT team. You know, the team the Wings have so often lost, or nearly lost to in the playoffs -- that team that is just clearly inferior, but gets by on the strength of their netminder.

Now I'm not saying the Wings are inferior to these Pens. But let's face it, they're not routing them to the tune of 6-2 over two games. The guy who's made sure that's the goals ratio? Osgood. It feels so wonderful to have an elite goaltender. Have the Wings ever relied on one before? Sure Hasek was great in '02 but it's not like those Wings needed a goalie like that. This year we've depended on Ozzie though. And he's come through huge.

Goddam it's going to fill me with uncontrollable mirth when Little Gary calls his name for the Conn.

mrrrrr

2009-05-24T11:41:00.000-07:00

Posting has been sparse as stress has increased. I feel okay about today's game. I feel okay about maybe not having Datsyuk or maybe having him at half-power. I feel okay The Anthem and the mighty Kane & Toews. Serious anxiety relating to our next opponent is growing, however.

Chief is right. We need Dats, at close to 100%, to derail Crosby and Malkin. It's not that I'm that scared about the Pens, it's just... okay, okay, need to stop thinking about next round. That's a jinx waiting to happen. This round.

Khabibulin, Huet, doesn't matter. Neither is superhero. All we need them to be is less-than-perfect. The penalty shitstorm was an idiosyncracy, the Kronwall call patently ridiculous. I'm not going to say Kronner hasn't thrown a borderline illegal hit or two in his career, but that was so not even close to one, as Babcock said, it's not even funny.

If anything this plays to the Wings advantage today. If Chicago wants "retribution", again Babcock put it best: we'd love to have a powerplay. The Wings' O is rolling. I don't know if Holmstrom has a point yet or not this series but his work in front of the net has won the Wings a couple of huge goals. When is the league going to start keeping track of screens? You get one for screening the goalie on a goal. Sounds like a legit stat to me. I mean, they track takeaways.

Not sure what else to say. The stress make me no talk good. make words go bad bad. tongue turn glue. expressions become... infelicitous.

go wings.

Fuck the Ducks

2009-05-13T11:33:00.001-07:00

The Wings didn't put in the game they needed to. That doesn't excuse the shitty end of game behavior from the Ducks.

Does this mean anything? Anything? Colin Campbell? Bueller?

Backfire

2009-05-11T20:43:00.000-07:00

I was steadily getting giddier and giddier watching the Hawks/Canucks series, as Chicago proved Luongo to be human again and again. The thought of playing against a team with no skill and a less-than-immortal goaltender thrilled me. Of course, my joy has turned to ashes in my mouth, as the Blackhawks and their shockingly potent offense are destined to be our Round 3 opponents. The thing that scares me about them is that they are too young and dumb to know how overmatched they are, or to remember how badly we spanked them in the regular season. And Byfuglien (that's pronounced buh-FUG-lee-ehn) looks like Pronger junior. Or, Sasquatchito, as they say south of the border.

All that remains is for the ~~Griffs~~ Wings to finish the deal.

And as for the round after? It's gotta be Ovechkin. Won't be as satisfying any other way.

Nobody's Off The Hook

2009-05-06T19:28:00.000-07:00

Nobody. Not the refs, the Ducks, the Wings.

I'm not even that pissed about the no-goal. Well okay I'm seething angry, but the Wings should not have let it get that far. One goal in 59 minutes doesn't cut it. They need to play 60 minutes.

That said, I am super pissed about that fucking punk Chris Pronger, and his fucking punk teammates Getzlaf and Perry. God I fucking hate them so much. At the end of the game, after the whistle, after the Ducks had won, Pronger makes a beeline for Datsyuk and starts throwing punches. The douches on Versus said something like "veteran move by Pronger there." You know what, the douches are right. It was a veteran move. Because apparently that shit is allowed! Apparently you can just go up to the other team, after you won the fucking game, and maul their best player. That's totally cool apparently. Somebody should tell Jonathon Ericsson that. I bet he will be treated the same as Chris Pronger by the league. Yep, I bet he will.

We need another Dan Cleary-on-Dion Phaneuf, or Stuart-on-Commodore type hit. Or a McCarty-style beatdown. Or a Ducks-like spear/elbow/knee/headbutt after the whistle. Someone needs to hurt. Besides Wisniewski.

In other news. Helm: I love him. He's like an eight-year old with ADD, all jacked up on Mountain Dew. He's just constantly running around, coming at you like a spider monkey. Speaking of Griff-Wings, how about Leino? The Wings are having trouble putting it in the net, and he's got some offensive game. The only trouble is, who do you take out? Kopecky, Maltby? They're playing well, and bringing much needed violence to the Ducks. Kopecky especially is wreaking havoc in front of the net, something sorely needed.

One last thing. I noticed ESPN use the word "indefatigable" in a headline.

Normally I have nothing but contempt for ESPN, but I've got to say: nice word, guys. Solid.

YOU GOTTA BE FUCKING KIDDING ME

2009-05-05T22:17:00.001-07:00

OMGWTF

The Only Question Is

2009-05-05T14:32:00.000-07:00

How long 'til Hank and Pav get reunited? Down after 2? Down after 1? Wouldn't hurt Hossa to get put with Mule, and Hudler or Wally.

Lot of hatin' out there for Chelios. Eh. I'd say he did alright. He can't really be blamed for the high stick. When it comes to Cheli vs. Meech, both guys are rusty. I'll take Chelios's experience over Meech's speed when it comes to the 6th guy eating 7 minutes. But what about Brett Lebda? Seems like he was out there a lot in OT, or maybe it's just that my ears perk up especially when I hear Brett Lebda's name uttered when the game is on the line. Lot of faith coming from Babcock.

Which leads to the only question worth asking 5 hours before the biggest game of the Wings' season thus far: what's the blueline gonna look like next year?

No way Ericsson gets sent down. I mean come the fuck on. No way. So who goes, assuming Lilja fully recovers from this concussion shit? Liljahammer was pretty fucking solid for us all year so I'm loathe to say it should be him. That leaves... Lebda. Maybe the Wings trade or waive Meech (where he would undoubtedly go on to become a Top 4 threat playing 25 minutes a night for the Islanders or somebody) and Lebda gets bumped down to #7 on the depth chart. Not likely Brett would be happy about that.

Yeah, I know, I know, wrong time to be wondering about 09-10. Just a thought.

Disturbing

2009-05-04T17:14:00.000-07:00

That's the only word you need to describe Pavel Datsyuk's absence (and Hossa and Zetterberg's too). I'm battling the pig flu over here, maybe that's what the big guns got? Or some secret injury. It's almost silly to even say it, because it's quite obvious; the secret to the Wings' success is really, really easy: the Big 3 have got to start producing. The secondary scoring is there, the goaltending is there (very much so), the hitting, yep, relative health (although the loss of Rafalski is pretty huge). It's all there. Just need Pavs and Hank and Mars to get rolling.

Because Hiller is beatable. As discussed elsewhere, he's no stud. There's only one thing, really, that can cause a dramatically inferior team like the Ducks to beat a team like Detroit, and that's a crazy hot goalie. But Hiller is not one. The Wings' primary offense just needs to get rolling. The Wings have basically played two crappy games and came out of it at .500. That's pretty good for a team chugging along at half-capacity. When the Wings get rolling, they'll crush the Poultry. If.

Let's think positive. What do I like about the team through two?

1. Hudler. He made the increasingly irrelevant Scott Niedermayer look like an idiot and take a penalty to boot in OT. Could have been the game right there. Happy is doing what he always does: playing like a guy twice his size.

2. Helm. Holy shit. Tell me this kid is not going to play in Grand Rapids next season. It was cruel this past season, it would be downright criminal to do it after this.

3. Ericsson. It's really wierd and incredibly cool to watch a guy go from green bottom dweller to stud top defenseman in the course of a playoffs. Seriously, Ericsson was leading the Wings in IT much of the game. Leading. And with good reason. He looks entirely at home in the top pair. It's sick. The only question for next season is: Norris, or just Calder? (assuming he's still eligible for the latter... I think he is)

4. Lidstrom. Lest we forget, he is still Norris Nick. Played a great game as usual.

5. Osgood. Stellar. I think the last goal was tipped. Far outplayed Hiller. No concerns about goaltending.

I'm feeling okay after this loss. Like I said, it's as simple as the Big 3 needing to get going. What will turn me crazy is if it becomes clear that something is deeply wrong with all (or any) of them. And Raffy not getting healthy really fucking quick.

Let the Feathers Fly

2009-04-28T11:57:00.000-07:00

Once again, we tangle with our avian nemeses. They have orange extremities, we have wheels. They are peaceful denizens of the sea, we are soulless mechanized cyborgs with no brains or heart, just wings and wheel, steel and fury. I suppose they may have us beat in a naval battle, but then again, we've got octopi.

Umm... sorry, I stroked out for a second there. Anyway, I was rooting for the Ducks to finish the Sharks off as soon as it became apparent that the usual playoff-Ducks had shown up, and the usual playoff-Sharks had too (sorry McClellan. Babcock you ain't. Or I guess maybe you are. Same start.) Why was I rooting for the Ducks? Well...

I am downright giddy to see Johnny Ericsson punch Chris Pronger's ugly fucking face in. Holy shit am I excited that the Wings have a guy who can match sasquatch inch-for-inch (not that that stopped Danny Cleary). And he's not just big, he's willing. I was saddened, no, crestfallen, to see the linesmen break up JMFE's nascent fight with whatever BJ that was in Game 4.

And Cory Perry? God I hate Cory Perry. Ohhh man do I hate him. I am literally shaking with anger as I type this. We need someone to cave his face in too. Ericsson can't handle all the fighting duties. How about... Kopecky? No, seriously. He can throw down.

Or maybe.... maybe the best way for the Wings to get revenge for 46.7 is not to literally beat down the Ducks, to take them on at what is admittedly their best facet, but rather, to totally fucking school them. Your top line is Ryan-Getzlaf-Perry? Seriously? And Niedermayer? What a punk. I get sick whenever he's compared to Lidstrom. Offense, yes. But defensively not in Nick's league. Remember Wally skating around Scotty like he was a fucking pylon? Yeah me too.

Yeah, I think that would be a lot more satisfying. Let Pronger scream in unintelligible gibberish, unable to form cogent sentences, while the Hossa blows past him. Let him wail mindlessly as Holmstrom asses in another goal while he sits in the box for some dumbassed act of aggression. Let Niedermayer frown in confusion while the Wings skate circles around him.

Forget circles. The Wings are gonna skate squares around him. Who can skate in a square? Pavel Datsyuk can. I saw it. In a dream. He did it. Backwards, blindfolded. Mike Babcock was wearing a cowboy hat and giggling with mirth in the background.

Um, anyway. Wings in 6.

All I Have To Say Is

2009-04-23T20:24:00.001-07:00

...alright, that's not all I have to say.

Ericsson didn't do anything outrageous, but another all around, level-headed performance from the rook. A real shame the linesmen had to prevent him from pummeling that BJ. I'm excited beyond all belief for this kid.
Lidstrom deserves the Norris. End of motherfucking story.
ESPN says Datsyuk only played 16 minutes. Did I miss something? Tell me it'll all be alright, Pavel...
Speaking of Dats, I'm waiting for him to blow up. It's gonna happen. And it's going to be truly thrilling when it does. Of course, he didn't do much offensively in the Pens series last year, sticking mostly to defensive dominance and unexpected beat-downs. But I think he's a got a dangle or two in his pocket he has yet to deploy.
Too bad about those BJs. They deserve a good hockey team in Columbus. They'll be back if Mason isn't a flash-in-the-pan.

Bring on the motherfucking poultry.

Draper's Scare-Quote Injury Unscare-Quote

2009-04-20T19:09:00.000-07:00

The Macomb Daily, via Snapshots, had this to say about Drapes on Saturday:

Kris Draper (upper-body injury) continued skating with the team Friday, but won't be available for Game 2 tonight. He returns to the doctor Monday for another checkup."

The frustrating thing on my part is I can practice, go out and take warm-ups, but I'm not in the situation to go out there and play right now," Draper said. "I guess that's the best way to say it.

"It's a weird thing," Draper added. "It's not easy to sit here and talk about it and keep everyone in the dark, but that's the nature of the situation. It's just best for me to do that."

The thing this reminds me of that no one has mentioned is the Franzen thing last year. Unexplained injury keeps Mule off the ice for an absurdly long time, leading to everyone from fans to Mike Babcock getting all antsy about where he was. Of course, I'm not getting too antsy, not with the way Helmer's playing, but there is some antsiness. I think. Somewhere.... We have to wonder what Drapes could possibly have that's keeping him out. Given that he's actually practicing, a potentially life-threatening bruise on his brain is unlikely. But something's up here.

Of course, some are intimating that this is actually just Babcock keeping Drapes out with some lame excuse. The quote above doesn't really make one think that, but George Malik is using scare-quotes around the term upper-body injury. Drapes doesn't strike me as the kind of guy Babcock is anxious to get on the bench, but then again Chelios was a regular all of last season and then got the bench in the playoffs. So who knows.

This reminds me of something. One time I was playing NHL '99 or something -- it was like the first day I had gotten it -- and Kris Draper went down with an injury. The virtual trainers came out and walked the virtual Draper to the bench. Then a little text box came up and said: "Kris Draper - Lacerated Scrotum".

Ohhhh man. Just typing that makes me feel... deeply sad inside.

Not Dead

2009-04-14T16:23:00.000-07:00

Yes, I know, I suck, I suck so hard. I should be shot.

What's that? You didn't notice I hadn't posted for months? Ahh, yes, well. Fair enough.

I've said it all before: my time has become extremely scant. Only catching 1 of every 2 or 3... or 4 games is not enough for me to go off of. I spout a lot of uninformed nonsense on this thing -- it would be nice if I at least saw the games.

That being said I'm going to try to get things back into gear for the playoffs. If I can't find the time to watch the Wings during the playoffs, I may as well pack it in, eh? Here are a few thoughts:

- Datsyuk: MVP and Selke. Nick: Norris. No question.

- Ericsson: Next year's Calder. Unless Leino beats him to it. Are they even still eligible?

- Goaltending: I am still regretting the Ty Conklin acquisition. The team is clearly committed to Osgood as the starter; if that's what you're going to do, why not get Howard NHL ready? You're never really going to know if he's gonna turn out until you drop him in the NHL and see what happens. Yes, Conklin was good insurance against an injury and if Ozzie goes down or breaks down in the playoffs Conklin is as good a backup as you'll find in the NHL. But next year Howard is out of options and has to make the team. If Osgood's off-year wasn't really an off-year, but instead the beginning of a decline? We can only imagaine Osgood will be the same or worse next year. And that means we'll be worse off than if we had gone with Howard this year. We're just delaying and making things worse on ourselves. Ugh. Hopefully, of course, Osgood will rebound next year, but whether he does or not the Wings need to get Howard in 30 games at least. If he flames out, no biggie, Larsson and McCollum are grade-A prospects.

- Cap: I have not updated my salary cap chart in a while. I have no idea what Hossa would have to take at this point to stay, and what the ramifications would be. But I do know I've read/heard people saying things like "the Wings might be able to keep Hossa and Hudler", which makes my head hurt. In the end, I just decide not to think about it, and trust/thank Kenny for his magical, magical cap-powers.

- Youngins: Similar to what I said about Howard: if Ericsson, Leino, and Helm are not all on the team next year I may flip out. I love Kenny and I love the "keep them in the minors until they're ready, then keep them in the minors a little while longer, and then keep them in the minors some more" strategy, but at some point you risk the continuity of your team when you stunt players' development by leaving them in a league they've more than adjusted to in lieu of players who are not giving you what the kids could be giving you.

- BJs: Wings in 5. I only say 5 becasue predicting sweeps never works. Mason scares me, but Columbus is going to be so glad just to have made it, the Wings will overpower them. You could not ask for two more polar opposites in terms of playoff experience.

So About That Blog Thing

2008-10-27T16:29:00.001-07:00

Yeah yeah, it's been like a million years since I've posted. Lots of reasons.

Pretty depressing to see all those talented youngsters get sent to Grand Rapids for another year, or more. Who knows what a year will bring in their development. You've got Jimmy Howard and Daniel Larsson eating into each other's minutes, you've got Jonathon Ericsson and Ville Leino, both legit Calder candidates if they were here, toiling in Western Michigan. All the while, Lilja and Samuelsson remain. I wept.
Haven't been able to see many games. Various feeds of varying quality are all I've got at the moment. It remains to be seen if I'll pony up for NHL Center Ice. Actually no, I won't.
I know this becoming a mantra around here, but grad school, as it turns out, is a bit of a commitment. On the other hand, did you know 'muzungu' is Lugandan for 'white person'?

But all this having been said, here's my take on the Wings lately.

So, uh, what the fuck is up with the defense? I told you we should have traded Lebda and Lilja. I haven't seen enough games to determine if they're the problem, but I'm going to assume they are, because that makes me feel the best.
Not sold on the Conkblock. He's been solid at times and all over the place at others. At least one weak goal against St. Louis.
Franzenstein down again. WTF. Couple of silver linings though: one, we might get to see Ville Leino alongside Val Filppula. Two, at the rate Franzen and Mars Hossa are scoring, there is no way we will be able to keep them both. None. And, if this cap goes down, as I read was possible on some Snapshots-linked article, it's not a guarantee we keep either. So this may sound awful, but the bright side is that the injury will diminish Mule's numbers. Yeah basically awful.
Holmstrom is leading the Wings in goals. Hossa is leading in points. The Wings' best player? The guy in between. 8 assists, +7, working magic as always. He is the proverbial straw that stirs the proverbial drink. I read the ESPN award predictions a while ago and as for the Selke there were a few votes for Hank, a few for other people. None for Dats. Uhh. Easily the most underrated player in the league. I'm thinking about changing this blog to Datsyuk Is God.

That's all for now. Should catch the Kings game and I'll see if I can shirk responsibility long enough to lend you all my thoughts.

Ericsson, Leino Still Here

2008-10-07T08:41:00.000-07:00

Khan: Ericsson and Leino are both practicing with the team. No reason for that if they aren't making the squad, since there are no pre-season games left. Quincey, Helm, and Downey are not on the ice, perhaps indicators that they will be/have been waived or possibly in Quincey's case, traded. I still find it hard to believe the Wings could get anything more than a last-round draft pick for Quincey, but on the other hand he has that Red Wings pedigree so Holland might be able to get more for him.

Back to Leino and Ericsson - Ville might be practicing just to fill in for Holmstrom, and if Homer's injury keeps him out of action on Thursday Leino is the obvious fill-in. So it may just be a "call-up" and not a sign Leino has made the permanent roster. Ericsson, however, has no business still being on the team if the Wings are sure Lilja and Lebda are the final pair.

Might be I'm just clinging to the hope that the Wings will dump Lilja and go with Ericsson, which, I must repeat, makes so much sense. Might be I'm just procrastinating doing my homework. But whatever, this team's winning the Cup regardless of its 5/6 pair, and homework is only like, 20% of the grade.

Edit: Okay, just saw MacLeod, Helm and Downey have been waived (Downey must clear). Either a) McCarty won the final spot and Leino is here until Homer is healthy, b) Leino won the final spot, McCarty is here until he's healthy sign you can't waive injured players (I doubt it since his injury is very minor I think) or c) the Wings will not carry a 13th forward, and both are still here for the aforementioned reasons.

But since the Wings have made the very tough move of assigning Helm (sorry Helmer...) it makes no sense that they would not also do the same for Ericsson. Yes, I'm very sure now, they're got more than just moving Quincey in the works. That is my ardent hope anyway.

And Now, The Waiting Game.

2008-10-06T15:17:00.000-07:00

Okay, so I said I would get back to regular posting, and then went like a week without posting. Whatever. It's still preseason, technically. I think.

BLUELINE CLUSTERFUCK

In the recurring segment, "Blueline Clusterfuck", I like to talk about the logjam (that's polite-talk for "clusterfuck") the Wings are currently experiencing on defense. Familiarize yourself with the situation by perusing the ever excellent Bruce MacLeod's take. Chris Chelios did his best to ease the problem by going and getting his leg broken, buying the Wings' about a month's time on making a roster decision. Always a team player, that Cheli.

Now if you've been reading Ansar Khan you might think the whole situation is totally resolved. After all, Khan and MacLeod both reported Babcock's praise of Lilja a little while ago, and more recently Khan quotes Babcock, saying Lilja and Lebda are set as the 5-6 pair. However, a few things are important to understand. First of all, Babcock is a lying liar, especially when speaking to Ansar Khan. This is well-known.

Second of all, Jonathon Ericsson is still, at the moment, on the team despite the Wings' preseason schedule being over. The Wings have no more games to evaluate him, and if Lilja and Lebda are set as the 5-6 pair, Ericsson's demotion to Grand Rapids is a no-brainer since the Wings will categorically refuse to put him on the roster in a non-playing role. It's very possible the Wings are trying to work out a deal to trade Kyle Quincey, but trading Quincey doesn't effect Ericsson. The only reason Ericsson could still be on the roster is if the Wings are trying to trade a top six defenseman. Cough. Lilja. Cough.

Trading Lilja makes the most sense given literally any metric. From a player development standpoint. From a financial standpoint (he costs the most). From a, uh, putting the best team on the ice standpoint. You're really gonna tell me Lilja's better than Ericsson? More experienced, yes. Worse in ever other category, however. Here's my conspiracy theory: Babcock is trying to play up Lilja's value to prepare for a trade. Yes he's more experienced, but Babcock is not one to reward experience over skill (see: Brett Lebda, 2006). Sure, Kenny Holland will ride a horse until it is dead in the ground (see: Kirk Maltby) but if Babcock wants Ericsson, Holland will jettison Lilja. I mean, he even admitted the possibility immediately after signing the guy, which is, you know, not usually the time when you discuss a guy's possible trade from the team.

I'm guessing Lilja goes, possibly Lebda too although that may be a pipe-dream for me. Given Kyle Quincey's uninspiring performance the Wings are probably more likely to waive him at this point (I think chances are decent he would make through) or trade him (they would probably get basically nothing in return), leaving no need to trade Lebda, certainly not before Chris Chelios returns, anyway.

THE RACE FOR, UH, PROBABLY NOTHING
The Race For, Uh, Probably Nothing is a little segment where we talk about the forward competition. So, uh, how about that fucking Ville Leino? I really thought I was kidding myself when I projected him on the third line over the summer, figured he was Grand Rapids bound. But holy shit. Holland has said he will not trade a forward but maybe that was before he really realized how good Leino is (and how excellent Helm has been playing). Maybe Babcock can convince him. Is there yet hope for Samuelsson being traded? Pleeeeease God let it happen.

The Wings have until 3 pm EST Wednesday to get under the cap and under the 23 man roster limit.

And, We're Back

2008-09-28T22:46:00.000-07:00

The preseason is upon us, and in fact has been for a while now. Given the rather intense roster-drama surrounding every position, you might think I would have made my return earlier, but things were... hectic, let's say. Anyway, I plan to be posting daily for the rest of the preseason despite not having any access to the games themselves! Let's hear it for second-hand analysis!

Throughout the preseason I'll be focusing on four major issues, each one meriting its own sensationally-titled recurring segment. They are:

RACE FOR THE CREASE 2008: The competition for backup goaltender has gone from practically sewed up to basically in the bag for Ty Conklin. Does that make sense? I was pretty offended before training camp to hear most people presuming Conklin would win the job with little difficulty, and predicted Jimmy Howard would storm the position. As it turns out, Conklin seems to be winning the job with little difficulty. Well. Shuddup.

HOSSAWATCH08: Marian Hossa is obviously the Wings' most exciting new commodity and will merit much attention. The real fun won't start until the regular season when he, Homer, and Pavs are hitting on all cylinders and actually have something to play for. Until then the preseason is mostly all about kids fighting for jobs.

THE BLUELINE CLUSTERFUCK: 5 dudes, 3 slots. Roster slots. Er, what I'm trying to say is, it's an intense competition. Lids, Raffy, Kronner, Stu, and the immortal Chris Chelios have 5 of 8 jobs locked up, leaving as many as two starting gigs and at least one enviable "season-long benchwarming" role. Lilja and Lebda have the most significant advantages, being experienced and entrenched. Kyle Quincey and Jonathon Ericsson represent the paths of least resistance: Ericsson can be sent to GR without clearing waivers, and at this rate I think Quincey will also be waived since he struggled badly last year and has done nothing to distinguish himself now. I'm guessing he wouldn't bring much if anything in a trade, and he might actually squeak through waivers at this point.

THE RACE FOR... NOTHING, PROBABLY: Darren Helm, highly touted young speedster. Aaron Downey, fan favorite pugilist. Justin Abdelkader, hometown hero. Darren McCarty, living Detroit legend. Ville Leino, Finn. The five of them are squaring off for the coveted 13th forward position... which, uh, may not exist, per Khan:

The club appears set with its top 12 forwards and will carry eight defensemen. Even after trading a defenseman, the Red Wings might not have the salary cap space to accommodate an extra forward, at least at the start of the regular season.

Ouch. Here's the really disappointing bit (bold is mine):

Red Wings general manager Ken Holland said he has talked with a couple teams but wants to see more preseason games before making a trade.

He said he would deal one defenseman to get under the $56.7 million cap and would not move a forward. He said it was possible the team could start the season with 22 players (12 forwards, eight defensemen, two goalies), one fewer than the maximum.

Aaaauuuugh. He won't move a forward. That means another year of Samuelsson. I go back and forth on him. It's not that I don't like him, it's just that he's a glorified checker and the Wings aren't in need of that. I'd rather see Kopecky get more time with some playmakers, or Leino, or Mac, or Helm, or anybody. And I certainly hope Sammy's days on the point are done.

Like I said, I'll be floating between these topics over the next few days, spreading things out to artificially boost my productivity. Enjoy!

Ill-Advised Discussion

2008-09-04T01:03:00.000-07:00

I may be drunk, and high, but it's also worth noting, that under the influence, I am an excellent typist. This past month or so, I must say, my notice of hockey as been... non-existent. School, boredness, and fantasy literature have kept my interest much more than a sport which is at its nadir. But those familiar feelings, of cold ice beneath the skates, charming accents of the blistery north of Europe, the adulation when a goal long-desired is finally netted, they come back to me now, when seeing the news of lines combinations from Babcock's own mouth. Ansar has them, of course -who else?

Split-up, that's how Babcock sees the Circus come season's start. Me, I would have guessed them together, and supposed Mule-Fil-Mars for the second line. But you can't argue with spreading the two best centers in the Western Conference across two lines, not when such wingers as Holmstrom, Hossa, and Franzen abound. Babs mentions Pavs and Homer will stick together, as they have for two good years straight now, with the God of War adjoined duly to the best playmaker the Wings have to offer. That leaves Z with countryman Mule, and... Huds, yes, the Oompa Loompa on his wing. Not Samuelsson. Glad to hear it from Babcock. God I hope Sammy's traded. I'll say it again: he's a highly competent checker, who can occasionally go on an offensive streak - but this team is heavy on scorers and Sammy's worth is greater in a trade than on the ice.

And not Fil either. It leaves Wally to wallow on the third line, which I was hoping for all along. The Finn is a center, and needs to learn to drive a line, and the Wings have the offensive depth to roll three. Put him with his countryman, Leino, if Ville earns it, if not, with Samuelsson, and Cleary or Kopecky to go to the net and muck things up. Leaves Drapes, Malts, and one of the others for a damn solid fourth line. Papa like. Helm in Grand Rapids, undeservedly, but what can you do when you've got this kind of depth.

Oh, oh yes, and Chelios is back. Unlike many doubters and bitch-asses out there, I am not surprised. I have said it before: Chris Chelios is Highlander; he will never die, only walk off into the sunset with Scotty Bowman one day (all the more likely now that the latter is in Chicago.) You might peg him this season for a benchwarmer and a practice-leader, but my guess is a healthy Cheli regains the sixth slot on the blueline, alongside a young Jonathon Ericsson. Lilja is dealt for obvious reasons. Lebda... young, cheap, fast -yes; but that's why his trade value is so high -he's maxed out on his potential, whereas Ericsson can have an impact right away, starting with pummeling that bitch-ass Pronger and making use of his 100mph slap shot on the point (replacing Sammy) - if not him, Meech, who proved highly competent there. Quincey even could become a Lilja-esque PK workhorse, hopefully not adopting the Swede's propensity for puckhandling slip-ups. Lebda and Lilja, while a serviceable last-pair for a Stanley Cup team, should give way to more exciting, more dynamic talent.

Lilja, Leba, and Samuelsson all traded for middling draft-picks, oh and Conklin too, if my boy, Jimmy Howard, wins the spot in training camp as I predict he will? That a team could trade that much talent at season's start and still win Stanley's sweepstakes? I daresay it would set me up for ever. As for the rambling prose? Been reading too much Jane Austen lately. But my Darcy will always be Datsyuk; hockey season can't come soon enough.

Let There Be No Comparison

2008-08-06T20:57:00.000-07:00

I can't say a lot of bad things about Brett Favre, who was traded to the New York Jets tonight. Being a Lions fan from birth, I have healthy dislike for #4. But there's little doubt the man's a machine, a monument to football cut from stone, his longevity and success a tribute to his dedication and ability.

But for man often praised for his leadership, let there never be any comparison between his legend and that of Steve Yzerman. Yzerman never scoffed at the idea of helping to develop the players who would one day replace him. Yzerman never made ultimatums or demands of his team. He never toyed with his front office or the hearts of his adoring faithful by taking an unreasonable amount of time to decide on his career choice ever summer. He knew when the time was right to retire, he made that decision and never looked back.

And most of all, when his career was far from over, a lot of money-making years ahead of him, he promised he wouldn't play for another team, that if traded he would retire immediately. Then on, Yzerman took less and less from the Red Wings, eventually going year to year on one year contracts, never causing the Wings any concern, only concerned about making sure Ken Holland was able to find the room for the other pieces the Wings needed to win the Cup. He set an example, one of many, that persists today and is so much of why this franchise is the closest thing to a Dynasty since the 1980's, and was instantly assumed into the front office, which had already begun consulting him long before his playing days were over.

Brett Favre? He's a bitch. His legacy is tarnished. The sight of him in a New York Jets jersey will disgust me, not because I like him or so desperately wanted to see him retire a lifetime Packer (technically he started out as a Falcon but meh), but because he had the talent, the success, and the longevity - he had the opportunity to be to the Packers what Yzerman was and is to the Wings: a living legend, a megalith, a paradigm which defines a Dynasty whose success is so entirely predicated upon the example, on and off the ice, set by the greatest leader in its sport. A man of such loyalty and humility in an age driven by salaries and pride. Favre could have exited gracefully, accepted a smaller role, eased a transition, and ensured the future success of his franchise. Instead he has stunted his team's quarterback's growth and left them with little. And left himself with less.

Favre is a great player, he's done great things, he absolutely has the right to change his mind, to go where he wishes, and to do what he wants.

But let there be no comparison.

Wally Won't Wander

2008-07-30T13:17:00.001-07:00

God I love alliteration. A little too much perhaps.

Anyway, you've all seen it, and I'm a little late getting to this story. I was worried about this right up until Holland said he had two- and five-year deals on the table and was confident it would get done before arbitration. That was all I needed. And Holland is a man of his word, not only reeling in Wally, but for the preferred long-term deal.

3M is a little much and the Wings will definitely make moves to shed salary, and A2Y's got Kenny confirming it (Lilja? Samuelsson? Plz?) and you have to wonder about Chelios who is still unsigned. (It will probably get done, I'm guessing.) But for Wally the term is far more important than the value right now. By the end of this contract (hell, possibly by the end of this year) Fil will be underpaid.

Yes he only netted 36 points this year, below a lot of the other RFA forwards, but remember this guy is a monster defensively (which is what earned him a role on the team in the first place) and also note that his offensive totals are diminished by the fact that he gets zero PP time behind the Circus, and the #2 unit of Buckets/Mule/Huds. Wally is a beast and I would take him over any Wings' forward except the Eurotwins (yes, even Hossa, due to the age factor).

Which wingers will Wally wind up with as winter waxes? There's a strong possibility he'll be on the wing if the Babcock split up the Circus, and if not very likely he'll be centering the #2 line with Mule and Hossa. However, if the Wings do split the Circus I'd love to see him center the #3 line. The Wings have the offensive depth to roll three lines and Wally should be playing at center where he belongs. I could see Hossa/Dats/Homer, Mule/Z/Huds, Cleary/Fil/Leino? Depends on how Leino turns out, but you've got the Finnish connection there. Potentially lethal offense. Like I said before, take those nine guys, throw in Kopecky and Samuelsson if he's still here, jumble them in a big bag before every game, and pick your lines at random. We will still win the West.

WWWD? Win with the Wings. Wbitches.

Why So Serious?

2008-07-16T22:02:00.000-07:00

I don't really understand the consternation coming out of les Montagnards over at A2Y over the now official January 1 game between the Hawks and Wings at Wrigley. Granted I live in Chicago and am going to the game, so I may be a bit biased. But. I don't really see why this is such a bad thing.

Chicago is a team on the rise. They have our number, or at least they did last season. They're the underdogs and there's a good chance they'll win. We're the defending champs. It's a good storyline. I keep reading about the conflict with bowl games on Jan 1. Uh, yes, that's what we all said last year. And then, uh, it turned out pretty well. Even ESPN, whom I despise to an unfathomable degree, covered the game pretty well despite the deluge of football. People are saying, well, now the game is in Big Ten country. Mmm, don't worry Wolverine fans, you're not going to be playing on January 1, or any similar date. If at all, your date will be in mid-December, likely at the whateverthefuck.com Bowl. I think we're safe.

And Chicago? No problems there. Northwestern? Haha. Perhaps my own proud institution, the University of Chicago, will being playing on New Year's? It's true, we helped found the Big 10 and the inaugural Heisman trophy was won by one of our boys, but we're not much of a threat these days in Div III. People in Chicago like hockey, actually. They just, for so long, toiled under an awful owner. Those days are gone. They will be out in force, as well as rooting hard in their homes.

Yes I would have liked Wings and Leafs at the Big House. And I'm guessing it will happen, some day down the road, when the league decides it wants to smash the NHL attendance record forever and ever. But if they're smart the NHL will wait until they're on the ropes to play that card. When Bettman's taken a serious beating and the salary cap goes down and Scott Van Pelt is ignoring hockey as hard as he possibly goddamn can, then they'll announce it.

In the meantime I'm happy with Wings at Wrigley. Yes there's no New Year's Eve game. Last New Years Eve I missed it because I was getting trashed and sick at the same time. In 1996 there was no New Years Eve game because there was a rock concert at the Joe. I would say this is a slightly better reason to skip it.

Plus I'm going. Bitches.

Roster Coming into Focus

2008-07-07T22:10:00.001-07:00

Every once and a while, when I'm alone with my thoughts or zoning out during an exam, I just smile. He's ours, I think to myself. Holy fucking shit.

Wally's all but assured to return. There's that little matter of agreeing on an amount, and I suppose we're not out of the woods yet since the arbitrator could give him some ridiculously unreasonable award. But Holland sounds confident in getting to an agreement beforehand. (God I've gotten lackadaisical about linking sources. I read it somewhere. Trust me.) And we can at least be sure no dumbassed GM throws an offer sheet at him.

Speaking of which, it's a good frigging thing I was on vacation when the rumors surfaced of Mike Gillis "preparing" a sheet for Wally. I don't know what I would have done with myself between hearing about that and the news that Fil filed for arbitration coming down. It likely would have involved keeping matches nearby at all times, however.

There's not much left. Chelios, Mac, Downey. Official word on Drake, the number for Fil. Nothing else til TC, we can be pretty sure. But when Traverse City rolls around? Oh, I'll probably be looking like a genius, on two, well, one and a half counts. First of all Babcock talks here about Jonathon Ericsson as if he's a lock to make the club next season. Well color me excited. I'll pretend I was going on knowledge of Babcock's inner mind and not wanton speculation based on my own excitable imagination.

And an even juicier tidbit, this time from Holland? We may have indeed seen the last of Andreas Lilja, just as we hoped as he lifted the Cup in June. Dave at GC mentioned this one, and with Babcock himself saying that Ericsson is basically assured a spot, Lilja is basically assured to be gone (and even then, the Wings will still have nine and need to deal/waive another D, so Lebda may yet be traded as I suggested).

I didn't expect Lilja to be dealt because the Wings just signed him, but on the other hand, if Lilja knew the score, as you have to think he did, he knows his chances of winning a Top 6 job in Detroit is going to be very tough. He watched Meech and Ericsson excel with big minutes during the injury shitstorm, and he watched them get bigger minutes than him as well. So he signs with Detroit on the hope he can win himself a job, and worst case scenario he gets dealt. Likely to a contender - I doubt a rebuilding team is going to spend draft picks to get a 30 something veteran who doesn't provide offense. More likely an EC contender looking to add a cheap, experienced minute eater. And as much shit as we give Lilja, I can't think of a team in the hunt who wouldn't mind adding him for a 4th rounder.

I'm pretty much going to be winding things down for the summer once I run out of things to say, which should be, I donno, tomorrow or so. Not ruling out random thoughts over the summer, but things should be pretty quiet pretty soon.

Fiesta Redwingcana Continues: Onomastics, Numerology, and More

2008-07-02T21:10:00.000-07:00

First of all, Matt at On The Wings has a frigging dissertation up on Hossa and the impact on the roster. He nails it and I agree with almost everything he says (except for a slight Kopecky dig - I love Kopy). His quote of the day is also spot on. Was going to do that myself but he beat me to it. Strong work Matt. Gorilla Crouch, Behind the Jersey, and Abel to Yzerman are all over this shit. The A2Y 19 are buzzing and coming up with some real gems.

So much time, so little to discuss! Strike that, reverse it.

First things first: I'm reading a lot about how much of a genius Holland is. Make no mistake, I think Holland is a genius and I will never say a bad thing about him (maybe I shouldn't say that kind of thing in the Google era...). But let's be real about who made this entire thing happen: it was Marian Hossa. Holland thought Hossa was too rich for the Wings' blood and went to bed. Hossa called him the next morning and offered a one year deal.

Hossa wanted a certain number. Holland was uncomfortable with giving him more than Nick. Hossa bent over backwards to get to Nick's salary. Hossa wanted to come here. That's why I love him. That's why before ever seeing him lace it up, I love him to death. He wanted to be here so bad he practically had to convince Holland to let him come. Undoubtedly he had to put a gun to Rich Winter's head with the amount of money he left on the table.

Moving on. I'm a number afficionado. I love them. I love discussing them. Couldn't tell you why. But I do. Hossa's likely going to be #81, as many around the blogodrome have supposed. Could be some other possibilities - #8, #78, #17, #36. Ugh, though - I hate goalie numbers for skaters. I'm looking at you Samuelsson. (Gotten too used to Draper's #33 to care.) But I would love #81. That's a great number for Hossa. Big numbers can be sort of blocky looking, but big numbers ending in 1 are sleeker and more fitting for skilled players. #91, #71, #61, #51... good company. As Malik said somewhere, it would also be cool to see Slovaks with consecutive numbers. (btw, I also love #82 for Kopecky - big numbers are great for big/physical players. Holmstrom and Franzen are further examples.)

Moving on to onomastics - the study of names and nomenclature. God, the Wings blogotron is dorky and I love that. BehindTheName is a great resource and I'm astounded to find others enjoy it as much as me. Baroque's onomastic etymological research must be credited with two fantastic nicknames for Hossa: Mars, and God of War. "Mars Hossa" just rolls of the tongue. I love it as much as Wally (which is catching on, as Baroque notes! Strong work, YIG commenters!) Certainly better than Fiesta Redwingcana, which is a mouthful and also stolen (or shall we say, adapted).

Back to Holland. While we can't credit him too much for signing Hossa, we can credit him for fitting everyone under the cap... once it happens. On his radio interview at The Fan 590, he sounded confident and at ease about Wally, though he just mentioned him briefly. Bruce MacLeod (who btw also has a great bit about Hossa as a person) has made it seem like Wally's no big deal. Maybe I've been overestimating his dollar-value. But then again I'm a respected GM in the NHL. I successfully piloted the Red Wings to consecutive Stanley Cup Championships in NHL 95 for the Sega Genesis. Also, look at this goalie I drew!

Moving on. Sundin. Make no mistake about it: Hossa's better. I was talking about Sundin as the ideal for the Wings because I, like many, didn't even think of Hossa as a remote possibility. Hossa, if he's at his very best, is a bigger offensive contributor than Sundin, and is better defensively, less likely to break down or have an injury, and he can possibly come back long term. That's maybe the best thing about it. Holland wants to try to keep Hossa long term. At first I thought this was just a full year rental (I was still very happy) but Holland has said he's going to try to make it happen. Now let's not get our hopes up because even before Hossa it was looking tough for the Wings to keep it together in 09-10. But now Hossa gives you a bargaining chip when you go to Z and Mule. Dynasty indeed. Shit, my hopes are already up. Dammit.

Lines. Some people are happy because Hossa's a winger and that lets you keep Fil at center. Personally, I would have preferred a center, because the Wings have the offensive depth to roll three lines. I was dreaming of Z, Sundin, and Fil down the middle. But I'll live. Here's my first guess, with Samulesson on the team:

Circus
Mule-Wally-Mars
Hudler-Kopecky-Cleary
Sammy-Draper-Malts

Kopy's a natural center and Babcock likes him there. He started last year centering the fourth line. He had a bad start but his confidence grew, with injuries he saw time at net-front on the Wings' PP and acquitted himself well. So I like him there. If you trade Sammy then maybe you put Kopy on the 4th line and put Leino at center there. Not sure if he's ready, but you can try. Cleary is actually a natural center so you could do that too. See why I wanted a center? Kopy and Cleary maybe aren't thought of as offensive players but they've got it in them.

Okay, how about this craziness:

Circus
Hudler-Kopy-Hossa
Cleary-Wally-Mule

I don't mean to say the Wally line is the third line, that's just the order I wrote them in. Hossa + Kopy gives you the Slovak connection. Hudler is Czech, so it's like old school Czechoslovakia. Czech and Slovak are mutually intelligible languages, so it works. Also the line has a good mix - playmaker, banger, scorer. Then the Wally-Mule line is a big physical line, very solid defensively. And then you have the Circus. It's like you have a #1 line, a #1a line, and a #1b line. Spread the wealth. Okay, okay, maybe you spread the wealth too thin with that one. But actually I really like that lineup.

Line possibilities are endless. Basically write down the nine names up there, throw in Sammy and Leino, jumble them in bag. Babcock could do that 15 minutes before every game and we'll run away with the west.

Summary
-I am freaking out
-WE GOT HOSSA
-since this is better than Sundin... do I have to light myself on fire?
-all the credit for this must go to Hossa. He wanted to be a Wing, and bad.
-I like #81 for Mars.
-it's time to man up, pete. light yourself on fire, dammit.
-golly, the consternation at PensBlog is hilarious.
-there's a word i'm looking for, starts with an 's' ends with 'tunned'. it's on the tip of my tongue.
-HOLY SHIT
-it's not every day you win two cups in one summer.

Fiesta Redwingcana!?!?

2008-07-02T10:53:00.000-07:00

I don't know what to say. Whoa. I'm resisting the urge to type in all caps.

Sources tell TSN that free agent Hossa has signed a one-year, $7.4 million deal with the Red Wings.

The $7.4 million that Hossa will earn next season, is the most Detroit would pay anyone - even an unrestricted free agent. The Red Wings were insistent that no one earn more money than six-time Norris Trophy winner Nicklas Lidstrom.

The biggest question is, what does this do to Wally. But that shit is depressing. Let's focus on the lines the Wings can roll right now.

Zetterberg-Datsyuk-Holmstrom
Franzen-Filppula-Hossa (!!!)
Hudler-Leino-Cleary
Kopecky-Draper-Maltby

Trade Samuelsson. 1.2M off the cap. Trading Lebda drops another .6. There's 2M in breathing room right there. Before I wanted to trade these guys to make way for the kids. Now I'm thinking only about keeping Wally. Waive or trade Quincey if it comes to it.

But holy shit.

Holy shit.

We got Hossa.

Who's got matches?

Okay, So, Maybe Not

2008-07-01T11:49:00.000-07:00

TSN:

Sources tell TSN as many as four teams have tablde offers for the 37 year old, including one undisclosed team - believed to be the Vancouver Canucks - that has offered a whopping $10 million per year on a multi-year contract.

Uh. So, Rolston, yeah?

Except that now with Stuart's 3.75 over the next four years, probably somewhere around 3 million over the next couple for Filppula... I can't see how the Wings can give Rolston more than a year. Not that a one-year deal is outside the realm of possibility. But at 35 he could easily get a two or three year deal, especially for a guy as injury-free and dependable as him. Check out MacLeod:

It's interesting that general manager Ken Holland specified that he's looking for a forward to sign "short-term." I'm wondering if that means that someone like Brian Rolston isn't coming to Detroit then because he'd be someone who signs for multiple years.

....

Reports are that Rolston had narrowed his choices to Detroit and the Rangers, but it's likely he's looking for and will get a multiple-year deal.

Seems more and more like the Wings are basically done with FA. I'll turn my attention now to Naslund. But the Wings have plenty of forwards stomping at the bit, not really any different from their blueline.

And what I said about trading Lebda earlier goes double now. Even after assigning Ericsson, the Wings have nine D:

Lidstrom-Rafalski
Kronwall-Stuart
Lilja-Chelios
Lebda-Meech
Quincey

I don't think Lilja or Chelios get moved - why sign them? Quincey neither, he could develop into a very solid defensive d-man. I think Lebda is the easiest to trade and the least valuable at this point. Meech can potentially be a PP specialist for them, Lebda will never be an offensive producer. Yes he is fast, I understand that. Kris Draper is also fast, despite which he is an offensive black hole (chin notwithstanding). MacLeod is talking about Quincey being in GR next year but Quincey needs to clear waivers and the Wings aren't a team that likes to give talent away. Yes they lost Matt Ellis on waivers but that was only after giving him a shot in the NHL.

If I come across as disappointed with the Stuart signing, I'm not - rather, I've been assuming we wouldn't sign him, and now that we have, I wonder - why Lilja? Chelios gives you the veteran stopgap and you can go with Ericsson and Meech on a rotation. I guess I shouldn't be surprised, though. The Wings strategy is and always has been: bring them back, bring them all back, forever, until they die. We've seen it with Maltby, Draper, Osgood, Hasek, Chelios, now Lilja. The Wings like their veteran depth and I must say I feel a bit silly for thinking they'd go in a different direction.

The biggest question now is: Where's Wally!?

Stunned: Stuart Back... with NTC

2008-07-01T08:59:00.000-07:00

Wow. I did not expect this at all.

3.75M, 4 years.

Okay, so, have fun in Grand Rapids next year, Jonathon Ericsson.

Edit: If my mental math is correct this leaves the Wings with about 5.5M to play with. May be too little for Sundin, but then again he made 5.5 last year, so maybe not. Also surprised that Kenny thinks 3.75 over 4 years won't make life difficult when it comes to re-signing Hank and Mule. But then again, he's the best GM in the NHL, and who the fuck am I.

Edit: Wow, and this:

The deal also included a no-trade clause in the first two season and a limited no-trade clause in the last two years of the contract.

Did not see that coming.

Road to Repeat: Christmas Eve

2008-06-30T20:36:00.000-07:00

...or Nothing Eve, depending. Okay, Kenny, here it is. This is your Stanley Cup winning roster:

Datsyuk-Zetterberg-Holmstrom
Franzen-Sundin-Cleary
Hudler-Filppula-Samuelsson
Maltby-Draper-Kopecky
McCarty

Lidstrom-Rafalski
Kronwall-Ericsson/Lilja
Meech-Ericsson/Lilja
Quincey-Chelios

Osgood
Howard

Look at those three frigging scoring lines. Holy shit. How can that team not win a cup. Well, injuries, that's how. But that's true any year.

The more I think about Rolston the more I like him. Wasn't interested in Minnesota, despite being a great hockey environment. And he seems determined to hit UFA despite what must be piles and piles of cash being thrown at him by Tampa right now. It almost seems like he has someone in mind. Someone guaranteed to give him his best shot at winning. Also it's his hometown. Have you figured it out yet?

That Rolston would want to come here doesn't make me like him better as player, but it does make me think he'll be more willing to take less than Sundin. Er, more willing than Sundin, that is. Mats is still my favorite at this point. But you can't go wrong. Hmm, if Rolston takes a cut... could you imagine? Maybe... 3.5 for Rolston and 5 for Sundin? Maaaybe? In a strange, terrible world? Okay, okay, I'll just take one.

Notice your boy Mikael Samuelsson still has a spot on my dream roster. This is before we trade him to make room for Leino/Helm. I'm not banking on that because Babcock is enamored with him, strangely. My problem with Samuelsson is similar to Lebda - he's not bad, he's not a liability the way Lang and Williams were and Lilja is (sometimes). It's just that he is a checking line player who is put in a scoring line situation. Yes he has the ability to break out from time to time but it's time to stop thinking of him as "a streaky player" and start thinking of him as a checking line guy who very occasionally pots a couple. Unfortunately he had one of those streaks the instant he got here, and Babcock hasn't been able to shake the notion of him as a scorer since.

The logic for trading him works the same as Lebda as well - his value couldn't be higher and you make room for the kids. Remember the last time an NHL team repeated? I believe you know the team. I believe you also are familiar with a trade they made the offseason between. It was their starting goalie in fact, also Conn Smythe winner. I am not talking about dismantling a Cup winning team. I'm not even talking about dealing Zetterberg or Osgood. Lebda and Sammy are fringe players, and the Wings should capitalize on their value given the kids they have in the system. Last time I'll say it. Well, no, it's not, but let's pretend it is.

Let's get back to Sundin. I don't know if I've made this clear: sign him. Do it. Hey Kenny, I have advice for you: sign Sundin dammit. Here's what you should do: instead of signing not Sundin, you know who you should sign? Sundin. That's who. Let me repeat: sign Sundin.

Get Lidstrom on a plane. Z and Kronner too. Hell, the whole Swedish contingent. On second thought, leave Lilja and Samuelsson home. Try not to bring them up. Send the Captain and Gordie while you're at it.

This is how it should go down: July 1, 12:00PM, Yzerman and Lidstrom ring Sundin's doorbell (it may be the middle of the night in Sweden or something - this doesn't matter). Yzerman just says "Six point five million." Then, he and Lidstrom raise their ring-laden right hands, point to them with their lefts, raise their eyebrows suggestively and nod. I can't imagine that this wouldn't be enough to seal the deal. Additionally, Emma Andersson may need to be brought in. I don't know how Z will feel about that, but look Hank - it's all about the team.

Hey Kenny, here's something else, in addition: sign Sundin. Do it. DO IT.

Sign him. Have I made this clear? I'm not sure I have. What I want you to do is sign Mats Sundin. Big, bald, 200+ pound Swede, 70 points a year guaranteed, normally wears 13 but that's going to change. I'm thinking 15 or 17 maybe. 8 wouldn't look too bad. Hey Kenny: fucking sign Sundin. Do it.

What about Wally? I've backed off the ledge concerning our Finnish friend. There are few things that support a non-suicidal position. First of all, there are a number of RFAs ahead of Filppula in terms of point totals last year, so even if the top one or two RFAs (point-wise) get offer sheets, Wally shouldn't be touched.

And if he is? A scenario occurred to me that didn't before: say he gets something ridiculous like 4.5 or 5 over 5 or 6 years. The Wings can't afford to have Fil at that salary and re-sign Z and Franzen, it's just a fact. But they might match anyway. The Wings have this one-year window and especially if their offseason acquisition is Rolston they'll have the room for Wally - this year. The year after they'll be up against the cap, but then you can trade somebody, or maybe someone will suddenly suck and you buy them out. But there's no rule that says the Wings can't get themselves into a little trouble as long as they're sure they can extricate themselves. And as a bonus possibility, the cap goes up wildly again and it all fits after all.

Hey Kenny: you know what I'm gonna say.

Summary
-Do I need to recap this? Sign Sundin.
-Samuelsson is a very good checking line player. Too bad we have plenty of those. Need scoring depth. Sorry Sammy. Peace.
-Wally is still my biggest concern, but I am no longer tortured by nightmares worse than staring into the black heart of the devil collapsing in on itself while the four horsemen of the apocalypse fornicate on the plains of Armageddon. What I'm trying to say is, I'm not that worried any more.
-DO IT

Road to Repeat: Making Room on the Blueline

2008-06-29T14:40:00.001-07:00

Helene St. James is a pretty smart writer. Her Free Agency Preview over at the Freep assures us that indeed, Sundin is the Wings' number one target, the ideal if they can get him, although that's far from a certainty. She also points out that the Wings are willing to go ahead with what they've got on the blueline, as I think they should.

...the Wings are well set on defense. Nicklas Lidstrom, Brian Rafalski and Kronwall are under contract, as are Derek Meech and Brett Lebda. Unrestricted free agents Chris Chelios and Andreas Lilja both are expected to be re-signed, as are restricted free agents Jonathan Ericsson and Kyle Quincey. If the Wings sign everyone they want to on defense, they'd have to move one guy just to get down to eight bodies.

Move one guy indeed. And who moves? The "easy" guy to move is Jonathon Ericsson, and by move I mean send to Grand Rapids. It's easy in the sense that he doesn't have to clear waivers and you don't give up any commodities that way. It's really not easy in the sense that Ericsson may be the most talented defenseman outside of the Big 3 on the Wings' roster, if not the most polished or experienced.

I fully expect the Wings to go to camp with 9 D, ten if Stuart signs (more unlikely every day, imho - if he makes it to July 1, some Brian-Campbell-Sweepstakes-Loser is going to overpay for him). There's no sense in making any moves now, now when everybody thinks they can go out and fill their holes on FA. And if the Wings do go to camp, there's a possibility that Ericsson isn't one of the six best D in camp, in which case it is indeed easy to send him down.

But I expect Ericsson to win a job on the final pair in camp, and eventually work his way up to the #4 slot (the Wings will probably start out with Lilja at #4 - not exciting, but not terrible either). That leaves the Wings with one too many D as St. James points out. So who goes?

It's not Lilja or Chelios - the Wings value veteran depth way too much and it would be mind-boggling to trade a guy who you just re-signed. And obviously it's not one of the Top 3. So that leaves Lebda, Meech, and Quincey.

Another possibility is to waive Quincey, who had the worst season of any of them least year. However, I think it was a down-year for Quincey and there's no sense in getting rid of a player when his value is lowest. He will not make it through waivers - at this point, very few teams wouldn't take a flier on a Red Wing cast-off.

I think the answer is to trade Brett Lebda. There are two reasons: one, his trade value is highest among those three; and two, his value to the club in future years is lowest of the three. I'll start with the second one. Lebda is a UFA in two years and what are the odds he returns? Not good with this depth. Furthermore, although some people think of Lebda as an offensive defenseman, he really isn't. He's just small and fast. He's not capable of manning the point on the PP as he has proved. And while his speed does occasionally open up things and lead to the odd goal, a quick look at his stats will tell you that doesn't happen too often.

And he's not a bruiser either. He's competent along the boards and certainly he is sound positionally. He's not bad in any sense - he just doesn't offer anything. He doesn't scare anyone the way Kronwall scares opposing forwards or Lidstrom scares opposing D. He's a solid #6 NHL D-man, but the Wings are used to having what we call depth - Hall of Famers riding the bench, could-be superstars on second and third lines.

And direct comparison to Derek Meech should seal the deal. Meech is basically a Lebda clone except that he's not as fast, but can actually move the puck and handle the PP quite well. When Meech was playing regularly due to the injury plague, he, not Lebda or Lilja or Ericsson, was the Wings' #1 D, playing in all situations. After Babcock saw what he could do, Meech was working the PP every time he was on the roster, even when he was playing forward at even strength. And I think it's time to give the kid a shot.

So you deal Lebda. What do you get back? I couldn't say what his value is but I know it's higher now than it's likely ever to be. He's young and cheap - perfect for any rebuilding team, but relative to his youth he's got a ton of experience. Not only has he played a lot of games and a lot of playoff games, but he's been tutored by Chris Chelios, one of the greatest to ever lace them up. He's got that Red Wing pedigree that ought to have any team interested. And any team, especially in the east, has got to look at his speed and maybe hold out the hope that he could develop into more of an offensive threat. I don't think it's likely, but it is possible.

Meech and Quincey are way too unproven to draw much in return. Lebda, however, fresh off of a Cup, could bring in (relatively) a lot right now. Well, not right now, actually, but rather in training camp. Like I said above, every team thinks they have a shot at Brian Campbell or whoever and isn't going to offer anything for Lebda. But in training camp? Right around the time Jonathon Ericsson is earning a job, and the Wings are realizing they have more depth than they can handle, a number of team around the league are going to realize they have way, way too little. That's when you strike. I can see it now, whether it's Cliff Fletcher, Don Waddell, Jay Feaster, or whoever.

Kenny won't put Lebda on the block, no no, he'll talk about sending Ericsson down despite his fantastic training camp. "We like to have a potential Calder-winner in the AHL at every position," he'll say. "We're thinking about sending Filppula down too. Just to get some seasoning."

His phone will be ringing off the hook.

FLETCHER: Listen Kenny, you gotta help me out. I need to rebuild, but without actually rebuilding. My money's all tied up in bought out contracts. I need someone cheap, someone young, but someone who's got experience, and speed to boot.

HOLLAND: Well I suppose we have Brett Lebda, if that's what you're looking for.

FLETCHER: That is exactly what I'm looking for.

HOLLAND: I don't know... we were planning on having him as our waterboy. We like depth, you see.

FLETCHER: Kenny, this isn't fair. You have 17 NHL defensemen. I've got 3. My number four guy is forward, my number five guy is the backup goalie, my number six was the A/V coordinator for the Manitoba Moose last season. You gotta help me out.

HOLLAND: Weeeell, I'll see what I can do...

The one potential downside is it leaves the Wings a little green on the blueline, but hey, that's what the deadline is for. Whatever draft pick(s) you get for Lebda (I'm thinking he's worth a 4th maybe?) you can immediately turn around and deal for veteran help in February. Someone like Brad Stuart. Hell, maybe Brad Stuart himself. It worked pretty well the first time. He could just split his time every year, spending the fall and winter in Cali with his family, then come aboard every spring for a playoff run. I could get used to that.

Summary
-Brett Lebda is a solid NHL defenseman, by no means a liability
-however, his trade value is high and he has little future with Red Wings
-I have stopped making threats of violence against others/myself. Positive!
-hey kenny: sign sundin. do it fucker.
-Derek Meech is ready for a full-time job, and should be the Wings #4 D on the PP
-Quincey will likely ride the pines all year like Meech did this past season
-fuck the leafs

Road to Repeat: Keep Wally

2008-06-27T18:33:00.000-07:00

Commenter Andrew at A2Y made a novel insight in the comments to the Chief's insane sign-Tucker post: Valtteri is Finnish for Walter. Flip, Fil, Val - they're all solid nicknames for Filppula and I endorse them. Me, I'm going with Wally from here on out. Don't try to stop me.

We've all got our eye on a UFA. I've got Sundin, Dave at GC's going for Rolston, the Chief as mentioned above is disturbingly in favor of Tucker. But let's get our priorities straight here. Acquiring a UFA forward is gravy at this point - this team is already Stanley Cup capable. You know what would make it significantly less Cup-capable? Losing a major cog like Wally. The, uh, YIG 6 beat me to the chase on that one. They're a pretty savvy group.

Having Wally poached by Kevin Lowe or whatever other douchebag would be a serious blow to the Wings, and to my mental health. It would be the 34.7 of Free Agency. Especially if it came on the heels of some pick-up like Sundin or Rolston that had us thinking repeat. BAM. 4.5M, 5 years. Unmatchable. Yes, Kenny has said he will match anything. But I agree with commenter Stytzer when he said that was more likely for scaring off potential poachers than true, in the comments of the Sundin post.

The fact is the Wings have their limits. Zetterberg and Franzen demand that. Yes Z has said he's not looking to break the bank and is willing to take a pay cut. He has said he wants to retire a Wing. But we don't know that about Franzen and even with a pay cut Z is going to command tremendous dollarage. I suggested 2.5M for Fil, that's a lowball estimate. Some of you said you thought it would be closer to 3M. I think that's warmer. And if Kenny can convince Wally to take his hair cut then it could be right in Dan Cleary's area.

But we don't know Wally is available for a hometown discount. Holland wanted to wrap him up during the season, but Wally's agent said no negotiations until the end of the year. Hardball. Well the season ended a a couple weeks ago and we've still heard nothing about an extension. Mike Richards just got 5M/year from Philly, a comparable player who put up 53 pts. Wally put up 36, so let's say that sets his value at 3.5M. How inconceivable is it that some team that's desperate for young talent and attention and is insanely reckless (Tampa Bay? Cough?) overpays for Wally by a measley million dollars? I don't think the Wings could match 4.5.

And Wally may not just not want a pay cut - he may want out. There's nothing to indicate that of course, I'm just going with reckless speculation at this point. But he's won his Cup. What is there left for him to do? Make mad money and be the stud on his own team, that's what. And how soon do you think either of those is going to happen in Detroit, with Wally stuck behind Z and Dats? Not for a while, I'd wager.

What if it happened? What if the unthinkable occurred? The bright side is the Wings would be up a bucketload of draft picks, which they could immediately turn around and trade for help. If the Wings did sign Sundin that would ease the pain. Rolston would make even more sense at that point since the Wings would have more room for a long-term contract without Wally's. Conceivably, without Flip's salary, the Wings could bring both in. Haven't done the math, just guessing at this point.

Ville Leino might also help ease the pain. I'm actually not expecting the Finnish C/RW to make the team due to the Wings' outstanding depth. In which case he'll go back to Finland and try his luck with a different squad next year, I'd guess. But without Filppula there'd be a need for a scorer like him.

But Leino may also give us a hint that we shouldn't be too worried - Wally was key in signing the Finn in the first place. As a countryman, Val sat down with Leino and told him to put on the Winged Wheel. That tells me Wally wasn't thinking of bolting. But I'm not convinced. Minds change, especially with money. And if we actually make it to July 1 without locking up Wally-o? I'll be under my bed until it's over. And if he's poached? I will fucking puke blood. Draft picks or no.

Summary
-Wally is the best name, like, ever
-I have turned to wanton fear-mongering
-hey Kenny: LOCK UP FILPPULA. SOON. LIKE, NOW.
-i'm scared. someone hold me
-GMs who are potentially thinking of poaching Wally: I will murder your family.
-did anybody see that discovery channel commercial? boom de yada, boom de yada... it cheers me up in an otherwise grim time.
-pleeeeeeease come back Wally

Fifty-Six Point Seven

2008-06-26T11:56:00.000-07:00

Make that 8.5M we can offer for Sundin. TSN has it.

If you're not interested in reading the comments on the TSN page, let me distill them for you:

Why the fuck was there a lockout?

Road to Repeat: Sign Sundin

2008-06-24T10:24:00.000-07:00

There is no move the Wings could make that would better nail down a Stanley Cup victory than bringing Mats Sundin aboard. Dave at Gorilla Crouch has talked about this, and he rightly suggests that Sundin would be the ideal pick-up. Not only is Sundin probably looking for a one-year deal (given that he considers retirement after every season these days) but he is right in the Wings' price range. Actually, everyone is the Wings' price range. I keep reading all over the place about how the Wings could only spend ~5M on Sundin. I don't think that's true, at least if the Wings don't re-sign Brad Stuart and go with Jimmy Howard as the #2 netminder, which I think are both probable.

To sort it all out, let's consult the handy cap graph. Here is the Wings' current cap situation, assuming, as has been widely reported, a 56M cap, and taking a reasonable guess at what Ville Leino's salary would be if he makes the big club.

(full size chart)

Notice the Wings have a whopping $15M+ to work with. This is for a couple of reasons; one, the Wings were already under the cap by a significant amount. Two, Kris Draper and Nick Lidstrom's salaries went down while Zetterberg and Franzen continue to be dramatically underpaid. Finally the cap apparently will jump nearly 6M this season (it was 50.3M this past year.) Now, around the middle of the season I heard 53M (some article linked at Slapshots, don't recall which), then at the end of the year everyone started saying 56. So, I don't know how trustworthy 56 really is, but everyone is saying it. So if we assume that...

... and we assume a few other things: measly salaries for Chris Chelios, Andreas Lilja, and Darren McCarty, who figure to be part-time/role players, and peanuts as well for Kyle Quincey and Jimmy Howard, who are unproven. I also assume the Wings will at least start the season with Helm, Leino, and Ericsson in Grand Rapids (I don't think they will necessarily, but in order to have any of them on the big club, trades will have to be made, and I want to just paint a relatively simple picture here.) Finally, I have assumed below that Val Filppula will get 2.5M, which is maybe a little high but I'm playing it safe by assuming the upper bound on what he might get paid.

So how much does that leave for Mats Sundin, assuming the Wings want a 2M cushion as usual? It leaves eight million frigging dollars.

(full size chart)

I don't think Sundin deserves, or that any team will give him, 7.972M, I'm just proving a point. Look at the bottom - the Wings have 2M to spare still. I don't think any of the numbers for the other guys are lowballed, at least not by much. Now, to be fair, I am assuming the Wings don't bring back Stuart or sign a FA goalie. But really, what goalie is out there for much more than 900K who the Wings would be seriously interested in? Kolzig had a bad year by all accounts and wouldn't merit more than 2M, at the very most. And Stuart is a goner in my opinion. The Wings just simply can't devote any money to 09-10 and beyond without knowing how much the cap will go up that year. The cap's huge jump this year has been predicated on the strength of the Canadian dollar versus the American. Will it stay that way? I'm no economist, and I don't think Ken Holland is either.

So my point here is if the Wings make Sundin their only FA acquisition they can spend as much as I think any other team would be willing to. Sundin made 5.5M and I doubt he'll be looking for much of a raise at his age. The Wings could easily give him, say, 6M and 1M in playoff bonuses (which could potentially be deferred to next year if it's needed). I doubt any team could boast that kind of pay as well as a good shot to win the Stanley Cup. Throw in Little Sweden and the chance to not play against the team he has been so loyal to, and I don't see how Detroit isn't the best bet for Sundin.

And again, Sundin is the best bet for Detroit. He's probably the only player of his caliber looking for just a one-year deal right now. And he doesn't just give the Wings one more good offensive player, he makes them capable of rolling three scoring lines. Check it out:

Z-Dats-Homer
Franzen-Sundin-Cleary
Hudler-Filppula-Samuelsson(/Leino?)
Maltby-Draper-Kopecky
McCarty

If Sammy goes through one of his cold streaks, or gets traded as I hope, Leino could step in, or Kopecky could, playing Holmstrom to Fil's Zetterberg and Huds's Datsyuk. Now you have arguably the best line in hockey as your #1, a potential #1 line as your #2, and a potential #2 line as your #3, with a darn good checking line for your #4. And that's not even all Sundin brings. To me, the biggest thing he offers is this: hunger.

The Wings have just won a Cup and the hardest two things about repeating are: keeping a great team together given the cap (see: Pittsburgh's apparent loss of Malone, Roberts, and Hossa) and keeping players hungry. The Wings have no problem with the former, but will suffer with the latter. Gone is the Dallas-Drake-has-never-won-it story. Gone is the starvation for that first Cup among many of the young stars like Zetterberg, Kronwall, Filppula, Cleary, and Franzen.

Now, the Wings are a veteran team and so I like their odds of staying motivated. A this-could-be-Cheli's-last-season storyline would help as well, not that I'm hoping for that. But nothing would help more than bringing aboard a Hall of Famer who is late in his career and has never won. Not only will Sundin be individually motivated-as-hell (see: Drake's playoffs), but the team can rally around him.

Given all of this, I'm going to go out on a sensationalist limb here and say barring an injury shitstorm from hell, if Sundin signs here, the Wings will absolutely win the Cup and demolish everyone in their path.

Summary
-I think people are selling the Wings' cap space short
-the Wings can definitely afford to pay Sundin, unless he's looking for a HUGE raise, which would be undeserved by anyone's standard
-Sundin would keep the Wings from dreaded complacency
-wow, Pittsburgh is getting shit on by its UFAs, eh?
-if Sundin signs, I will be so happy I will light myself on fire

Wrapping Up the YIG Awards

2008-06-23T18:56:00.000-07:00

I want to start talking about free agency and trades and shit, but I haven't finished those playoffs awards I started a while back. So let's just wrap those up real quick.

WTF!? Award
Goes to player who cowboyed up the most in the postseason, relative to their regular season performance. Nominees: Dallas Drake, Jiri Hudler, Val Filppula.

Winner: Hudler
Filppula had a strong regular season, but at times was electric in the playoffs (much like last year). To boot, he did it all on a pretty seriously banged up knee. The complaint about Fil though is that he didn't really show up when he was most needed, namely Johan Franzen's absence. Drake is a very close second, as he went from a fourth line minute eater to a third line energy guy extraordinaire, gaining notoriety especially for his vicious hits. Mike Babcock's infamous quote said it best: "Dally loves running defensemen and I love watching him run defensemen." But I've got to give it to Hudler.

The Oompa Loompa had a disappointing start to the season when he was paired mostly with Fil and Sammy or with Z and Sammy. After putting up fantastic numbers in extremely limited time last season, Hoodlum was expected to jump up the second line and completely failed to do so. As the season went on Babcock moved him to the third and fourth lines, although importantly kept him on the second power play unit. When the playoffs arrived, Hudler stayed right there, but his production jacked up - he was the catalyst on the Wings' potent second PP unit (Franzen got a lot of credit, but he was more of a finisher rather than starter) and maybe more importantly, he was the playmaker on the Wings' critical fourth line. His puck control led to goals small in number but huge in clutchness, as well as keeping the Wings deep in the opposing zone while teamed with Mac and Helmer. Strong work Jiri.

Baddest Ass Beard Award
Self explanatory. Nominees: Dan Cleary, Kris Draper, Henrik Zetterberg.

Winner: Draper
Z had a strong showing but didn't really compare to Cleary and Draper's pirate beards. If I had handed this one out last year it would have gone to Buckets for his red monstrosity, but this year his jaw surgery clearly had him playing catch-up. Furthermore, Kris "Chuck Norris" Draper (not to be confused with Norris Nick) sealed the deal by actually scoring a goal with his beard, and also refusing to shave it off when his chin required stitches. Truly, a god amongst beards. Pavel Datsyuk deserves honorable mention for actually managing to pull off a decent goatee for the first time.

Manliest Motherfucker Award
Goes to the motherfucker who went most balls out in the playoffs. Nominees: Dallas Drake, Val Filppula, Pavel Datsyuk. Popular choice nominee: Johan Franzen.

Winner: Tomas Holmstrom
I know I didn't nominate Holmstrom, but a dude can change his mind, alright? Filppula deserves mad credit for playing on a bum knee and Drake does as well for the viciousness of his hits (as does Kronner). I was originally going to give the award to mah boy Datsyuk for the way he totally blew up physically and manhandled the opposition (particularly the renowned bitch-ass, Gary Roberts. What would he do, anyway? Be a bitch, that's what.) Commenters demanded Johan Franzen, and indeed, playing with a brain injury is pretty frigging balls out. I didn't originally think of Mule because he actually didn't play once they found out about the injury, and he was kept out for a very long time (not that it was his fault). But in retrospect, even after his subdural hematoma had healed it takes serious balls to put your noggin out there again. Just ask Jason Williams, who completely wilted after taking a concussion early last year. The Wings ended up trading him because he became so averse to physical play even after recovering.

But then I found out Tomas Holmstrom, who on an average day takes a vicious beating, did his usual job while suffering from not only knee and hamstring issues but also a frigging sports hernia that he got before the playoffs even began. The abuse Homer takes in front of the net ought to merit him at least a nomination in this category anyway, although I'm ashamed to admit I didn't even think of it. Holmstrom is kind of like Nick Lidstrom (this is the only time the two will ever be compared, ever) in that he does his job so regularly and completely and so rarely falters that you just expect it and forget to praise him for it.

But then add the injuries he was dealing with already? Bingo. There's your Manliest Motherfucker. Would have won the award last year too, btw, had I handed it out. Remember 13 stitches, and then back the next period? Honorable mention goes to Ryan Malone, who was a frigging warrior for going out there with twenty broken noses or whatever. It's shitty that the Wings will probably be playing him 8 times a season next year with the BJs, but then again it will be fun to watching Pavs upend his ass 8 times a year.

Be Cool, Stay In School

2008-06-21T10:23:00.000-07:00

Well the second day of the draft is well underway and a trend is developing among Wings' Day 2 picks: collegians. College players get four years to develop meaning they can be stashed longer than junior players or Europeans (well, except Russians, who can be kept indefinitely as of right now, but that's a whole other can of worms). The Wings organization is loaded and they have no immediate needs either on their pro-roster or in terms of near-to-pro prospects. Furthermore, they're very near the 50-man roster limit so keeping kids in college 4 years before signing them and thus adding them to the roster gives the Wings some breathing room and time to sort out their prospects. The Wings took Max Nicastro, D, Boston U. (3rd round); Gustav Nyquist, C, Maine (4th round); and Julian Cayer, C, Clarkson (5th round). Red Wings Central is updating with quick mini-analyses on each prospect as the draft unfolds, and Dave at Gorilla Crouch is also providing coverage.

But what boggles my noggin a bit is the Wings' first round pick, Thomas McCollum, who Central Scouting had as the number 1 North American Goaltender, ISS had as the Number 2 overall goaltender, and TSN had as the Number 3 overall goaltender. Now, it's true that the Wings are shallower at goal than any other position, but I'm just wondering where they're going to put McCollum. Daniel Larsson is slated to start in GR this year and Jimmy Howard should be joining the Wings in the NHL. McCollum has one year of junior eligibility left, but after that then what? Will he and Larsson split time in Grand Rapids? If they're eating into each others' IT, that can only hamper their development. You would think the Wings would have gone for a college or European goaltender who the Wings could keep out of the AHL for longer. That being said you can't argue with just going for the best player available at the position of greatest need.

As for McCollum, the kid has got to be breathing a sigh of relief right now. I'm sure he thought he was a pretty good goaltender, and it must have been reassuring to hear ISS, CSB, and the various media telling him he was very good as well. But he couldn't have really know that he was actually a very good player until he got the Jim Nill seal of approval. That must have been nice to hear. I heard that Jim Nill doesn't discover which players are good - he decides, and God then makes it true.

Anyway, ultimately the Wings only need one of these guys to develop into a number 1 NHL netminder, something I was confident would happen just going with Howard and Larsson. McCollum gives the Wings an even stronger possibility of that. Down the line the Wings could very well be able to trade one of these guys if the Wings get themselves into a Giguere-Bryzgalov or Nabokov-Toskala situation. And let's face it, the Wings could have drafted Pierre McGuire with their pick and would still be set to maintain the Dynasty for a long time to come.

Montreal!? Wha!?

2008-06-20T12:30:00.000-07:00

Come on Mats. If you are going to leave the Leafs after refusing to do so a couple of months ago, to their great detriment, you're not really going to go to Montreal are you? You'd just have to play your old team over and over again, and do you really want that? And some 20 year old kid in net?

Everyone with a brain knows Detroit is your ideal landing spot, should you leave the Leafs. Different conference from your Leafs, but not geographically far. Novi of course, would be your home. And a shot at the Cup? Pshh. If the Wings grab Sundin forget about it. Number 12, locked up, bam. The Wings' offense would be ridiculous. It would be ridonkulous. I'm willing to say, in fact, that it would be ricountchoculous. What I'm trying to say is, it would be good.

As has been said, a lot, the Wings have a one-year window to take on a big FA before Z and Franzen's contracts are up and the Wings' cap number will rise dramatically. Again, Sundin is the ideal. If the cap really is going to hit 56M, the Wings could throw 6M at Sundin easily. I'll have charts later. They're around here somewhere.

Don't do it Mats. I've been resisting speculating about you because you in the Winged Wheel would be just waay too frigging cool and I've been sure you'd either return to TO or retire. But now this... this day may hold drama for the Wings yet. Or heartbreak. Or both.

Judgment Day!

2008-06-20T08:27:00.000-07:00

...for teams that actually, you know, have work to do. Ahaha. Anyway, the Central is abuzz. The Preds dealt Mason to the Blues for a 4th-rounder. Strong move by the Preds, as it clears room for them to re-sign Dan Ellis, who stood on his head against Detroit in round 1. If Mason continues to be a bust for the Blues, however, I can't say how much sense it makes to pay $3M for a backup to Manny Legace. If he returns to the form that earned him that contract, however, the Blues could sport a pretty decent 1-2 goaltending punch. Risky move though.

As for the BJs? Rumors have them eyeing Ryan Malone, as well as a trade for Patrick Marleau. If they get both? A Nash-Marleau-Malone line? Yikes. That line would be... what's the word I'm looking for... legitimate. Throw in that Leclaire kid and we could be talking a strong bid for the 8th seed. Yowza.

The only prospect whose name I know is Stamkos but Bruce MacLeod has the nitty gritty on who should be available come pick #30. Bruce's hunch is the Wings trade down, however, much as they did a couple years ago when they moved their first round pick for two 2nds - they grabbed Cory Emmerton (RWC's #8 prospect) and the much-lamented Shawn Matthias. I'm trusting MacLeod on this one.

Really, the Wings having a first-round pick is just a sin. It's like the Penguins getting another hot-shot 18 year old skilled center. It's like the 2002 Red Wings getting another Hall of Famer. It's like Iwo getting another reason to bag on the Dive. What I'm trying to say here is we don't need it. Whoever we get is gravy. This team is already stocked to make a run next year and well after that. Let's just sit back, relax, and enjoy this.

Edit: Whoa! Should have finished perusing the blagotron before spouting my mouth off. Looks like Dave at GC's got all the information you could ever want, ever, about the draft today. Check it out.

Unwise

2008-06-19T13:40:00.001-07:00

Okay, so my well-laid plans of keeping the posting up through my hellish finals week and then through my excitingly painful wisdom tooth extraction recovery may have been... dumb. But I'm rounding back into shape! I'll be wrapping up those awardy things I was talking about before and then maybe chat a bit about the cap and some intriguing fellows around the league.

In the meantime, I've been watching, you know, other sports, which I'm told do exist. For some reason I haven't been able to catch a single Tigers game all week, particularly disappointing since they apparently have finally located their asses vis-a-vis holes in the ground. So with no baseball I've been subsisting off of UEFA championship soccer.

Now I like the idea of soccer as much as anyone but I don't really follow the sport. There are a few things I do know: I'm pretty sure they play soccer year round and I think hockey needs that. They have hilariously delightful Scottish and/or Irish commentators (we're talking Lucky Charms level of accent here) and we need that kind of accent in hockey. Speaking of which, it tickles me when those silly Brits say things like "And Germany win!" instead of "And Germany wins!" you know? How great would it be, Ken Kal's hoarse voice shouting "And Detroit have won their 11th Stanley Cup Championship!"

Naah that would be dumb. This is America. Anyway, back to hockey. I can't stop reading PensBlog. At first I just read it when I couldn't find any more Detroit-angle articles or blog posts on the Wings' championship so I'd go to PensBlog to delight in their misery. But now I'm just hooked because they run a damn good blog. It's magically delicious. Possibly the best on the net, but I wouldn't know because I otherwise don't read non-Wings blogs (more of a time thing than anything else). I think they employ 10 or 20 bloggers because every other day they're bring aboard somebody new, and after all how the hell else could they put up those massive posts, rife with brilliant photoshoppery. Man, if only their team hadn't heartbreakingly lost the Stanley Cup. Hahaha. Ahhh. Man, that's going to be funny all summer.

Anyway, back to daily posting soon. Ish. Or something. No promises.

Blackest Ace Award

2008-06-10T15:16:00.001-07:00

I made up the Blackest Ace Award last year because I thought Jiri Hudler should have played and might have made the difference in the Anaheim series. This year, it doesn't make nearly as much sense. But nonetheless, I will present it to...

Jonathon Ericsson

He's number 52 there. Good number.

Few can argue with the benching of Aaron Downey or Justin Abdelkader; given how well the fourth line performed throughout the playoffs, Darren Helm in particular, it's hard to see how either could possibly have done better. Jonathon Ericsson probably was best left on the bench too - having only played 17 NHL games, all earlier in the year, Ericsson was about as green as you get (well, actually, not as green as Kyle Quincey or Darren Helm....) Even so, there were two points when I was extremely nervous, and in my panicky rage, I told myself that Ericsson ought to be sent in, namely after Game 4, Round 1, and after Game 5, Round 3.

I'm not a huge Brett Lebda fan, not because he's incompetent but just because he doesn't bring a lot to the table. He is solid defensively and only getting better in that respect as he matures and gains experience. He isn't overly physical, however, and he has little offense to contribute. So when things got rough and Lilja was already out of the lineup, I thought Babcock had little choice but to shake things up by inserting Ericsson. Babcock himself had said in a presser that he couldn't believe Ericsson wasn't playing, and had earlier in the year called him "an NHL defenseman".

He's a big fella. Skates, scores, fights. I'm pumped.

Now, the playoffs being now over and the Cup being won, I was obviously on crack. But Ericsson still merits discussion. Particularly, the question is, does he make the team next year? Babcock's clearly in love with him, and so am I. And let's face it, those are the two most important voices in the Red Wings organization. But Ericsson's got a few folks ahead of him. As of today (ie, prior to free agency) here's the Wings defensive depth chart:

Lidstrom-Rafalski
Kronner-Stuart
Chelios-Lebda
Lilja-Meech
Quincey-Ericsson

Given the Wings organizational stance against having kids on the roster who aren't getting significant playing time, Ericsson will have to secure a Top 6 job to make the squad. Assuming Lilja doesn't come back, Ericsson is still number 9, stuck behind Derek Meech and Kyle Quincey because they can't be sent down to the AHL without clearing waivers. Mathematics tells me that means he has to move up three spots. Here's what Ken Holland has to say on the issue, courtesy of Bruce MacLeod:

General manager Ken Holland said this morning that the Red Wings will carry eight defensemen again next season. Holland said that if unrestricted free agents Brad Stuart and Andreas Lilja both sign with Detroit, the Red Wings will have "10 NHL defensemen." That figure includes the eight that Detroit had on its roster through this season -- Nicklas Lidstrom, Brian Rafalski, Niklas Kronwall, Stuart, Lilja, Brett Lebda, Chris Chelios and Derek Meech. Holland also labeled prospects Kyle Quincey and Jonathan Ericsson as NHL defensemen...

Well that makes things pretty darn interesting. MacLeod goes on to guess that the Wings' outstanding depth and the Wings' tight budget means Stuart won't be back. And as much as I would be content to see Stuie return as the number 4 D-man, I wouldn't cry if he got replaced by Ericsson either. You see, to me Brad Stuart is a rich man's Andreas Lilja. Yes he has offense and moves the puck better than Lilja. Otherwise they're the same. Stuart gets caught out of position alot going for hits. He makes bonehead mistakes (the Crosby goal in game 3) and he wanders out of position in the offensive zone. I would always see him in Holmstrom territory and wonder who that forward was, then I realized it was Brad Stuart. The Wings like D to jump up, but only in an opportunistic sense - jump up when there's something "up". Otherwise hold the frigging line. Stuart didn't really ever catch on to that.

What the fuck are you DOING!? Blue LINE not blue ICE!

Now, with a team defense as good as the Wings' and a partner like Nik Kronwall, Stuart's errors likely will not be very noticeable, but his physicality and offensive contributions will be. But that being said, I would not put Stuart's value at more than 2M. I'm not saying that he needs to take a pay-cut to 2M to stay here, I'm saying he's not worth more than 2M in the first place. In March I wrote that I thought Stuart would leave in FA and that Ericsson would take the number 4 spot next to Kronner. I'm sticking with that. I thought Lebda would get traded because I didn't think the Wings would go with 8 defensemen, but apparently they are. So here's my guess for next year's D:

Lidstrom-Rafalski
Kronwall-Ericsson
Lebda-Chelios
Meech-Quincey

Chelios and Ericsson will likely rotate out with Meech and Quince. It's certainly a very green blueline but hey, that's what trade deadlines are for. If the Wings go into the season with this lineup, they're sure to pull the trigger on a Stuart-like deal in February. So all this having been said, yeah I see Ericsson in the lineup. 6-5, 220, scores, skates, hits, even fights. Oh, and one more note about Ericsson: I consider myself a number afficionado, and I have to say: 52? Gorgeous. Looks great on a big guy. Couldn't say why. It just does.

Tomorrow: WTF!? Award
Nominees: Jiri Hudler, Dallas Drake, Val Filppula

Děkuji, Dominik

2008-06-09T19:57:00.000-07:00

As expected, Hasek called it quits Monday. As I talked about earlier, this paves the way for Jimmy Howard, and Kenny Holland sure makes it sound like that's what he's thinking. HockeyTown Todd has a pretty reasonable solution if the Wings decided to go for a one-year stopgap, though. Oh, or how about Curtis Joseph!?

And this guy has his own fashion line?

Drew Sharp suggests Dom's number be retired. It's not a... crazy thought - Hasek is undoubtedly a first-ballot Hall of Famer, and was a Stanley Cup champ for this team. He had a falling out with Buffalo, where he did most of his best work - six Vezinas and two (consecutive) Harts - so his number will not likely hang there. His stays with Chicago and Ottawa were far too brief and inglorious to merit anything from either of them. And it would be just all too sad if the iconic 39 didn't hang somewhere.

Ah, we got used to this kind of shit. Almost.

But this is Detroit. We have enough tradition and mystique for three or four teams (nine or ten Colorado Avalanches) and retired numbers aren't cheap. Just ask Larry Aurie, Red Kelly or Norm Ullman. Marcel Dionne played four seasons for the Wings, same as Hasek (way more games than Dom), and is one of the greatest ever at his position, too. He set the rookie record for point with the Wings, but his number isn't anywhere close to the rafters. And such current greats as Sergei Fedorov, Brendan Shanahan, and Chris Chelios are unlikely to have their numbers retired as well. Nick Lidstrom is likely the only player of this generation to already have that honor secured. Having been the starter for just one championship, I don't think that cuts it. Ask Mike Vernon.

But I will always look back on Dom fondly, for all his... quirks. He was exciting, and pretty damn good when healthy. He won two cups and that's more than can be said for a lot of folks. He inspired and excited us. And you have to wonder, will any goaltender ever do this again?

Thanks, Dom.

Best n00b Award

2008-06-09T18:56:00.000-07:00

Yeah, it's pretty much Darren Helm.

I had to look him up - I didn't know what he looked like.

Last year Best n00b went to Kyle Quincey. Quincey was thrust into action by injuries, and had one job: don't screw up while playing 8 minutes a night on the third pair. Helm was in a similar position, playing on the fourth line with the hope that he would solidly eat minutes while giving the others rest, allowing Mike Babcock to keep rolling four lines. Helm took the job and ran with it, literally; his speed gave the fourth line a boost, and teamed mostly with Darren McCarty and Jiri Hudler, Helm's line gave the Wings energy, occasionally offense, and tireless puck pursuit. Helm was a demon on the forecheck and was all over the puck at all times. The ability of Babcock to role four lines was crucial throughout the playoffs and was a major reason the Wings went all the way. Helm may not have put in a lot of offense or killed many crucial penalties, but helped round out the team and keep the big guns fresh. Strong work, Helmer.

Helm roofs it on Turco for his first NHL goal.

Now the question becomes, does he make the team next year? If not for his playoff performance, the answer would almost certainly be no. The Wings strategy with kids is to keep them in the juniors, minors, college, or Europe until they are way past ready. The other half of that is that the Wings keep their veterans around, never releasing them to make room for kids. The Wings maintain the status quo until they are forced to give a kid a spot. That's how Val Filppula got on the roster.

And Helm may very well Filppula his way onto the roster as well. After this performance it's hard to see him getting cut come training camp - hard to see him not deserving it, and hard to imagine how he'd take it. Quincey had high hopes of parlaying his strong playoffs into a regular season job, and whether that was realistic of him or not it led to disappointment when he got sent back to Grand Rapids this past fall. That in turn led to a poor season which now sees Quincey behind Derek Meech and Jonathon Ericsson on the depth chart.

On the other hand, there are 13-14 forward spots as opposed to 7-8 defense spots. Assuming Val Filppula returns, here are the Wings commitments:

Datsyuk-Zetterberg-Holmstrom
Filppula-Franzen-Sammuelsson
Cleary-Draper-Kopecky
Hudler-_____-Maltby

Looks like a good spot for Helm. McCarty will likely be re-signed as a depth forward. Downey could also be back as the 14th forward if the Wings elect to keep only 7 defensemen. The one possible sticking point is Ville Leino. The Wings signed him from Finland during the playoffs on a one year deal with the expectation that Leino would return to Finland if he didn't make the team. Leino is no prospect, really - the Wings are hoping he'll make the club because otherwise they'll lose him. So I think for Helm it comes down to a one-on-one battle between him and the Finn.

He's under there. Trust me.

And what if Helm and Leino both perform well? I suppose the Wings could trade somebody. Somebody who doesn't pitch in enough offense, but had a strong Finals, dramatically inflating his value? Hmmm....

Tomorrow: Blackest Ace Award
Nominees: Justin Abdelkader, Jonathon Ericsson, Aaron Downey.

Road to Repeat: The Unrestricted Warriors

2008-06-07T20:43:00.000-07:00

Chelios. Drake. Downey. McCarty.

Three of the four are ancient, three of the four are known fighters, all of them bring physicality and leadership to this team, and each played a significant role in the long haul. All four are unrestricted free agents. Will they be back, and should they? First I'll say I'd love any and all of them to return - I don't know if you're all familiar with this axiom, but when you win the Cup basically you want everyone to come back. I know, it's unintuitive, but true. The real question though, is, can they?

I'll start with McCarty. His resurrection was a phenomenal story and I can still hardly believe it. He showed himself to be a valuable contributor even during the postseason when fighting, his milieu, is not a treasured commodity. Mac could easily come back to the team and, besides being a huge draw, contribute on the fourth line the way he did in the playoffs - fists, stare-downs, hits, and the occasional offense. If Mac returns he's likely to play a role similar to Dallas Drake's this past season - every-other-day player who will see more ice time in the case of injuries and will be especially valuable come playoff time. And, to my great joy, it seems Mac will indeed be back - Holland says he'll offer #25 a contract (at the very end of Khan's article). Fuck yeah bitches.

On to Drake. A contract is his if he wants it. His performance in the playoffs was unreal, and he was a solid contributor in the regular season especially as injuries mounted. That being said he played out of his mind in the playoffs, and having finally achieved his life-long goal of the Stanley Cup it's hard to imagine him having that same kind of special season that he did this past year. And late in the season and in the postseason he sure sounded like this was it. It would be all too story-bookish for Drake to go out on top now, having returned to his original team to finally win the Cup. And it's not to say he'll be unmotivated or complacent if he returns, but he probably won't be as good as he was without the possibility of never winning a cup driving him. I think he retires, but like I said, it's up to Drake, and if he wants back Holland brings him back.

Downey's future rests on Drake, I think. If Drake comes back, then the Wings will be almost sure to return every one of their Top 14 forwards (includes Helm). It's not even clear the Wings will carry 14 forwards since they're loaded at defense right now and could very well carry 8 blueliners. In that case it's obviously against Downey returning, especially with Mac around. In the case of injuries the Wings would more likely turn to Abdelkader or Ritola than the one-dimensional Downey. But that being said I think the Wings will give him a two-way contract and see what he can make out of training camp - he's earned that much. If he gets waived I think he's certain to get nabbed by someone else after his strong season - 5-0-5 and some impressive beat-downs of Ian Laperierre and George "Porn 'Stache" Parros. I'm not very optimistic, but I sure hope he returns. I love you Deputy Downer.

Chelios is going to get his knee scoped apparently, and frankly, I mean, come on, that was obvious. Lilja? Really? Cheli was hurt, and if he had been in perfect health you have to think he'd be in there. Anyway, he's a lock to return. Holland's policy with veterans is generally "bring them back until they die." If you bring back a vet, you can always bench them if a kid outplays them. If you deign not to re-sign a vet so as to give a kid a spot you're risking a lot on that kid. With Chelios there's no risk. The Wings are vastly deep at D: if Stuart returns they'll have five D, plus Meech and Quincey who can't be sent down, add Chelios that's eight, and that's without re-signing Lilja, and that also means sending Jonathon Ericsson to Grand Rapids again which is so fucking ridiculous I can' t believe I just typed it, but keeping kids in GR way longer than necessary has always been the Wings' strategy. Chelios is just too good at killing penalties, too cheap,and too good a leader and a mentor not to bring back. I think he returns.

---

This upcoming week's going to be hell for me school-wise, so I've planned out my posts ahead of time. I'll be spending this week handing out playoffs awards (I know, a little out of order since I've already started talking about next season) as I did last year. The week will proceed like so:

Monday: Best n00b Award
Goes to the best rookie in the playoffs.
Nominees: Darren Helm. Yeah, it's pretty obvious.

Tuesday: Blackest Ace Award
Goes to the best player who I can't believe didn't play. This was more appropriate when we didn't win last year and it was cool to second-guess the coach's decisions.
Nominees: Justin Abdelkader, Jonathon Ericsson, Aaron Downey.

Wednesday: WTF!? Award
Goes to the player who most improved his performance from the regular season to the playoffs.
Nominees: Dallas Drake, Jiri Hudler, Val Filppula.

Thursday: Best Beard Award
Goes to the most pirate beard adorned in the playoffs.
Nominees: Dan Cleary, Kris Draper, Henrik Zetterberg.

Friday: Manliest Motherfucker Award
Goes to the player who manned up the most during the playoffs.
Nominees: Dallas Drake, Val Filppula, Pavel Datsyuk.

Holy SHIT.

2008-06-07T20:14:00.000-07:00

So, uh, subdural hematoma, eh? Yeah that's a pretty good reason to keep a guy out of the lineup.

I just spoke to Johan Franzen, and he told me the reason he missed six games during the playoffs was because he of a bruise inside his head.
"I had a collection of blood, it was not in the brain, but between the skull and the brain," Franzen said.
The team said Franzen was suffering from headaches, saying the symptoms were concussion-like, but an MRI revealed the blood.

"It self-absorbed between two and three weeks," Franzen said. "It was a little bit scary. I couldn't do anything because that would have been dangerous."

I'll say.

Road to Repeat: Goaltending

2008-06-07T14:36:00.000-07:00

Maybe the most solid and intrigue-less position for the Red Wings is goaltending. Osgood is entrenched as the starter, obviously, and will be back for the next three years at a meager 1.4M cap hit. Osgood will likely transition to backup over the life of his contract, depending mostly on how Jimmy Howard performs.

And it will be Howard as the #2, no doubt about that. Kenny Holland is saying nice things, that if Dom wants to come back they'll sit down and talk, but KH isn't planning on it and if there is a talk it will amount to "thanks for your service." I've read some national pundits say Howard needs another year. Are you kidding? Three in college and three in the AHL? He's ready. Need further proof? Take a look at his performance this season against Dallas, a 1-0 loss in a critical game. He's ready.

Hasek is one of the greatest goalies of all time, and I don't believe his skills or his passion deteriorated this season. As has been noted, the four straight against Nashville was the first time Hasek played four straight all season. His body is just no longer willing. The Wings can maybe count him for short bursts (which I suppose is what you want in a backup) but they need to get Howard NHL experience so they aren't caught with their pants down when Osgood retires.

Ansar Khan at MLive says much the same, that Hasek's time is past and the Wings need to get a good look at Howard. However, he suggests that if Howard doesn't cut it this year the Wings should jettison him and go for Ryan Miller, as has been speculated all year. Earlier this year I posted about how ludicrous it is for the Wings to target Miller. A lot has been said about the Wings' enormous cap space and it's true the Wings are in great shape for next year. But that's because Z and Franzen will still be on very cheap deals (2.45M and 0.9M respectively). In 09-10 those numbers will go up dramatically and the Wings will be counting on that when they make their moves this offseason and next. Miller will be the premiere goaltender on the market when he hits and will command 6M at least. The Wings will not be able to afford this, and as Holland has said, the Wings don't spend money on goaltending - they spend it on defense.

To quote myself:

-the only reasonable move would be to trade Rafalski, which might happen only if the Wings are very happy with Ericsson and the other young D's development, and very unhappy with Osgood/Howard
-but if Osgood stays steady and Howard develops well, why would you even entertain the notion?
-boldface allows you to highlight key ideas and is fun to use!
-avs suck

If Howard struggles next year the Wings will stick with him and be patient, as they always have (unless Osgood falls off dramatically). If Howard still doesn't develop the Wings will move to the next guy - Daniel Larsson. Larsson was compared to Henrik Lundqvist two years ago when he was drafted. This past year Larsson won the Honken Award (best goalie) and the Swedish Elite League Rookie of the Year while playing for Djurgarden. Having done all he can do in the SEL, Larsson will be the Griffins' horse next year and the year after. If he follows the Jimmy Howard route for goaltending development, he'll be ready for the NHL just as Chris Osgood's contract is expiring. The Wings will then have the option of going with the two youngsters or re-upping Osgood and dealing one of the kids (or keeping Larsson stashed in GR.)

Summary
-Osgood is like... what's the adjective I'm looking for... competent? effective? great? something like that. If only his name contained such a word, I could make a clever pun!
-Hasek is an all-time great, but he's done.
-Much like Whitney Houston, I believe that children are our future, and Jimmy Howard is one such child.
-Miller is unrealistic. Get over it. (Unless things change dramatically, mind you. The Wings could always make space or the cap could go up wildly or something.)
-Larsson ensures the Wings have a Plan B when it comes to developing the next Wings franchise goaltender.
-new banner! yes!

Aftermath

2008-06-05T11:51:00.000-07:00

Well, with the exception of learning all the injuries (if we ever do), it's done. But I'm not. I'll spend the next week or so going nuts finishing papers and the like (finals week is next week, damn you quarter system!) and then it's on to Wings' offseason analysis. I'll look at each player's season and postseason performance, give my take on which players should be brought back (hint: most if not all) and what the future holds for the Wings. I've already come up with a name for my summer analysis series: The Road to Repeat. Alliteration for the win, as always.

Topics on the agenda:
-player reviews
-the UFAs: Chelios, Drake, Hasek, McCarty, Downey, Stuart (who's done? who's gone? who's back?)
-the RFA: Val Filppula (I predict re-signing him may be tougher than people think...)
-the Extensions: Zetterberg and Franzen (both are eligible for contract extensions July 1, and their respective break-out performances could put a strain the Wings' Cap...)
-the kids: Howard, Ericsson, Meech, Quincey, Helm, Abdelkader, Leino (who's ready for the NHL? Is there even room for any of them?)
-the draft (hint: the Wings will pick good players)
-the trade/FA market (hint: Wings do little, if anything...)

All along the way I'll be dragging along my handy spreadsheets and crunching cap numbers for every scenario, as well as taking looks at what the other Wings bloggers in the community are saying. Should be a fun summer!

PS. WHOOOO! WE WON!

Exuberance!

2008-06-04T20:09:00.000-07:00

I am abundantly overjoyed, as are my compatriots! Cheers, friends!

In other words:

FUCK YEAH!!!

Hung over

2008-06-03T06:23:00.000-07:00

Can I be real with you guys?

That sucked.

Zetterberg Drinks Crosby's Milkshake

2008-06-01T18:26:00.000-07:00

Hank is the Conn Smythe, there's no doubt really. Ozzie could give him a run for his money, except that Ozzie and Hank are on opposite ends of the hype spectrum. While Z has been fabled all year long as the Wings' best player (which I've found to be silly, given Dats and Lids) and has always been in the spotlight (especially compared to Dats), Osgood still has detractors who say his team is more the reason for the Wings' defensive dominance than he is. And I do agree that Hank is more deserving than Ozzie, although I'm not sure he is more so than Lidstrom. I have to re-iterate that really, I mean, really when you think about it, Lidstrom is the most valuable player on this team and has been for a while and will continue to be, and it's not really close. Compare how the Wings have done without Z (like the 19 game stretch at the end of last year) with how the Wings have done without Lids (like the games he missed this year).

That being said, Lids has always gotten the shaft for not being a more spectacular player (probably costing him a few Norrises and a lot of Hart votes) and so I suppose I'm pretty used to it. I'll cheer when Z lifts that leaf-house thing, especially in light of his dominant performance last night. As many have said, Z ensconced himself as the best player in the league with that game. Crosby may be the best... something in the league, but offense is only half the game. It's Z, duh. (or Pavel. I imagine if Pavs were out there for that kill we'd be talking about him in the same terms.)

Homer likely in, Mac probably out. I feel bad about Chelios not playing. I know him and Mac and Downey will probably get their gear on and join the team during the celebration, but it sucks especially for Cheli to not play in the Cup-winning game (or series for that matter). Up until now it was basically assured he'd be back at the same old one year cheap-o deal to patrol the blueline on the third pair, kill penalties, and teach the young Wings' D how to play the game. Now I'm not so sure. I'm scared.

I'm also scared about Johan Franzen and Henrik Zetterberg, both of whom are entering their contract years. Hank winning the Conn will likely add a penny or two to his value. The Wings will do whatever it takes to keep Hank, and furthermore Hank has stated he doesn't care about his salary and wants to stay a Wing for life. But it's possible we're talking about a two or three million dollar spread between the open market and what the Wings will top out at. And assuming we do sign Hank, it makes Mule all the harder. I don't want to think about the Cap right now. As soon as we win I'll bust out the spreadsheets and start looking at what the Wings can potentially offer these guys. But for now let's just think about Stanley.

How about this kid? It takes balls, and dedication, to buy an extra Stanley Cup playoffs ticket and also get risk getting arrested just to toss the ol' octopus. I love it. Nice jersey choice too.

"Holy Shit."

2008-05-27T13:46:00.000-07:00

That's what I said to myself when Filppula put home the Orresque third goal last night.

"We're going to win the Stanley Cup."

I know it, on an intellectual level, but haven't really embraced that fact yet. Which is good, since I guess the series isn't over. And you never know what's going to happen at the Igloo. I'm hoping for a tighter affair, if for no other reason than the NHL's sake. But I'm not expecting it. Here's a fun game to play: who could the Wings lose and still beat Pittsburgh? Kronwall? Zetterberg? Datsyuk? Franzen? (Already answered: yes).

Osgood is catching a lot of flak for diving. I mean, yeah maybe he dived or embellished. Maybe he was to blame for the Malone penalty too. I get that, I'm willing to admit the possibility. But get off your fucking high horse, PensBlog. I understand you're frustrated but every team does little things that are illegal. Like your boy Roberts with the punch? That's better than diving? What about the attempted slew foot by whoever the hell? I don't know if there's a more gutless and dangerous play in hockey. Doesn't matter if it didn't work.

Every team bends the rules, but I'd rather be a team that dives than one that slew foots and sucker punches. And as if any diving the Wings may or may not have done even effected the fucking outcome. At worst the Wings are no worse than the Pens, and hell, we have to make up for Tomas Holmstrom having a target on his back. You got your milkshake drunk, and your fabled hero who was supposed to rescue you in Game 2 was ineffective, posting more PIM than TOI, and then got thrown down by our Lady Byng candidate. Let that last one sink in for a bit.

Okay, back to the game. Things to look out for for G3:

Pavel fucking Datsyuk. My favorite player has made me nearly tearful with pride over these playoffs, between his offensive mastery and his rampant physicality. It's a shame more people aren't noticing how physical he's been. If I weren't so worried about him breaking a hand I'd love to see him develop as a fighter. He clearly has the toughness for it.

Dats has been the Wings road-leader, posting all nine of his goals and most of his assists on the road. Sure enough he's been pointless at home, but if Pitt thinks they've got his number they are pretty spectacularly wrong. He is about to light them up.

Conn Watch. The aforementioned Russian genius gets my vote for Conn Smythe - not because I think he necessarily deserves it at this point, but just because I really hope he wins, because he's my favorite. Dats has been largely overshadowed by Zetterberg (as he has most of his career) so I'd love to see him go on a tear to finish off the Pens and garner the Conn votes.

Of course, in reality, Nick Lidstrom deserves it, pretty much no matter how many more points Mule or Zetterberg put up or how many more goose-eggs Ozzy does. I mean, can we all sit back and think about this for second? Remember how bad we were without Lidas in the regular season? Even up 2-0, who wouldn't shit their pants if he went out? I'm not saying those other guys aren't instrumental, but... seriously. It's Lidstrom. Every time. It's Lidstrom.

Who do I think will actually win? My money's on Z - he's gotten a lot of hype this postseason and of course leads in scoring, goals, and plus/minus. Ozzie, Lids, Mule, and Dats are all in it depending on how the following two games go. (Edit: Ahem. The following two-to-five games.) But right now it's Hank's.

Chris Osgood. Leads the league in playoffs save percentage. Which is funny because I thought he was an average goalie who benefited from having a great team D that kept his shot totals low.

Respect. Unsurprisingly, the Wings still don't get any. Between the NHL's fellatio of the Pens (and the corresponding focus on their failures rather than the Wings' successes) and the anti-Euro bias that still continues, the Wings' eventual Cup win will probably be shrugged off as a year in which reffing made physical play impossible, thus favoring the effeminate Europeans, but let's all wait until the Penguins skilled players develop, then it'll be different.

For example, see: Don Cherry's homophobic portrayal of Pavel Dastyuk, followed by Barry Melrose fellating him, followed by Steve Levy trying to get Cherry to admit that Detroit should be credited for their success.

Levy: Don, don't you think Detroit deserves some credit?
Cherry: I feel so bad for Sidney Crosby. Malkin hasn't shown up. Back to Crosby, blah, blah...

Then, there's this toolbox on the TSN.ca recap of the Wings' game. His racism is far subtler. When describing Roberts's hit on Franzen, "it was a love tap ... Franzen folded" but when Sykora hit Osgood, "Sykora, there was no reason for him to tag Osgood whatsoever."

Yeah.

Stuff that Matters. Man, I've spent a lot of time talking about shit that doesn't matter. Here's what does: the Wings are absolutely dominant, and they're Jiri Fischer away from the Cup.

Wings in 6

2008-05-23T21:05:00.000-07:00

A lot of people have been saying how Detroit has more experience than Pittsburgh and how valuable this is because experience is super important and therefore Detroit is going to win. Right. Not a lot of people have really been delving any deeper than that. I bet a lot of Pittsburgh fans are agreeing heartily with Jim Leyland's saying, "I'd rather have talent than experience." A lot of them are saying that Pittsburgh is more talented, and that's all you need to know, because experience is overrated.

To some extent, I agree with them, and Leyland, that experience is overrated. A big reason that Detroit is here is because they're really, really talented - from Dats to Z to Lids... I'm not gonna list all the guys. We all know the Wings are really talented. But I do think experience does have significant value, even if it's not the most important thing. And in this case, the experiential difference is vast. And not just in terms of the experience the players have gained on their various careers - the very immediate experience of the first three rounds as well.

Besides their many Stanley Cups and less successful playoff ventures, the Red Wings have dealt with Nashville tying it up, possibly the Wings' most terrifying scare, in the first round. Memories of first round exits come flooding back. The Wings overcame that shit and won in 6. Then Dallas roars back two straight and scares the living bejesus out of me, and the Wings just go into enemy territory, shitty ice and all, Dallas having all the momentum, and win the series.

Pittsburgh... has been up 3-0 in every series. Every goal they score, they celebrate like a series clinching win. They have enjoyed home ice in every series they've played. And those few, very few losses? Go back and watch Sid and Malkin meltdown, slash and whine, slue foot and cry and basically throw tantrums. Pittsburgh isn't just inexperienced. They bring inexperienced to a whole new level.

If the Pens lose their first game? Forget about going down 2-0, just going down 1-0 is whole new territory for them. Having to work at anything, climb out of any hole, overcome any adversity, it's totally foreign to them. On the other hand, if the Wings fall in game 1? Yeah it would suck, and would be the first to descend into the fetal position and weep openly. But the Wings themselves would stay cool, stay calm, come out and try to win Game 2. Pittsburgh hasn't played anyone nearly at the Wings' talent level. That alone isn't why the Wings are going to win - after all, the Wings haven't played anyone as good as Pittsburgh. But combine loss of home ice and the sudden increase in the opponents' skill with a total inability to control emotion?

That's why we're going to win.

Yeah, I Suck.

2008-05-23T13:45:00.000-07:00

What if the Red Wings blogging community were the Red Wings team? I know I'd start with the Chief at A2Y, he would undoubtedly wear the C. I can't compare him to The Captain, of course, that would be sacrilege (see blog title.) I would compare him most to Shanahan - productive as hell, a vocal leader, willing to mix it up with the opponent (perhaps on the current incarnation he compares best to Drake or Homer). I know I would not want to throw hands with the guy. Christy (A) at BTJ could be Datsyuk or Zetterberg - her work gets national attention, and is probably the star blogger of the Wings' community. Her prose is magnificent, and her fanship undoubtable. Matt Saler (A) over at On The Wings is clearly the Nick Lidstrom; more quiet, unassuming, but his body of work is unfathomably huge. He logs more words than anyone, and his game is an intelligent, analytical one. Doesn't take time off, and is brutally thorough. Dave at Gorilla Crouch? I'll go with Niklas Kronwall, he, like St. Nick, is intelligent, reads the game well, and provides analysis. Has more bite to his game though, and will crush you from time to time. And, much as Kronner has struggled with injuries, Dave has lost time to unfortunate afflictions like being a U of M and Lions fan. There are other bloggers and plenty of passionate commenters to round out the team who I don't have time to mention.

Me? I'm doing my best Robert Lang impresison. Productive at times, occasional hot streaks, but cold all too often, and a total disappearing act in the playoffs. Actually, even Bobbo had that critical goal in the SJ series that kept our ill-fated season alive. I'm like Don Cherry's racist stereotype of Europeans (God I can't wait until we win and rub it in every Canadian good ol' boy's face. Just getting to the SCF should be enough to debunk this ridiculous myth, but we know it won't be). I'm like the regular season Jiri Hudler, or maybe the current Mikael Samuelsson. Yeah that's it. Mikael Samuelsson.

I haven't said much. After the Colorado series I gloated a bit, taunted Turco with the pic of Datsyuk destroying him. But now we're in the finals. It's time for me to grind it out. I gotta lace 'em up and get out there. It's go time. I haven't been able to stomach too much conversation. Seems like I've either been busy with school, or busy in the fetal position on the Hasek Club Car of A2Y's famed Stress Train (explanation here - #23). Let me tell you, when Dallas won that second game, my world was utter darkness. I briefly considering becoming emo. Then, Kris Draper banked one in off his face and my world was joy again.

Partially, I've overwhelmed. Especially now in the finals, so much is being said about every little thing that it's hard to say something original. Well, I sure will try. My fanhood is on the line. What the hell kind of blogger doesn't talk about his own team when they're in the SCF!? A shitty one, that's what kind. So let's get to work. I'll have a post more about the Red Wings and less about me tonight, but I'll start with this:

-Franzen out for Game 1. Yes, this sucks, to have him out for this game. I'm more worried about how good he'll be when he gets back. The best thing about Franzen was how frigging hot he was. I guess we'll find out if he was actually that hot, or just that fucking good. The other thing I'm worried about is his long-term health. Much as I worry more about the future than the present every time Hank's back acts up, a long string of serious headaches with no reasonable explanation is just not good news. Color me concerned.

-Kris Draper's body is a wonderland. His face is the ugliest, most scarred, mashed, beaten face I have ever seen, and it is absolute beauty. After Game 2, in which he tangled with Ott and Ribeiro late in the game, CBC interviewed him. His normally messed up face was even worse, cut, bruised, red, and his right was bloody. Not his eyebrow, mind you, his actually eyeball was red with blood. To this, he adds losing three teeth and taken stitches on his chin when he HEADS a goal in. It is absolutely unsurprising that quite possibly the least offensively creative player on the team (in the league?) would score the ugliest goal in the playoffs. And by ugliest I mean most beautiful. Despite what I may say in later years, when the cap gets tight, I hope Kris Draper never leaves the Wings.

-Speaking of the cap - it's the silliest thing to talk about during the Cup finals, when no acquisitions can be made and there is in fact no Cap on player salaries. But it's definitely my favorite point of discussion; I started this blog the day after the Wings lost, mostly because I wanted to spend the summer chatting about the Wings' cap situation and its effect on their potential acquisitions. Even if the Wings were bound to lose every one of their star players, it wouldn't really diminish the joy of hoisting a Cup - one must live in the day, after all. But even so, it's there, in the back of my mind. I'll try to hold off talking about it until after the parade, but no promises.

More thoughts about the Pens and Wings tonight. In the meantime, the usual suspects mentioned above and on the blogroll are brimming with great reading.

Strong Work, San Jose

2008-05-02T22:00:00.000-07:00

Maybe I was a little hasty yesterday calling out Turco. Every time San Jose wins I get more excited. Every time the Sharks win, it's a more tired and less confident Dallas team in the WCF. And if the Sharks actually pull it off? Man, I'm salivating. Nothing could tire a team out more than charging back from a 3-0 deficit. The physical tiredness would be one thing, but the emotional drain that kind of thing would put on them would be enough. They would jump all over each other, party all night, then have to wake up the next day and move on and get back on the ice and realize they're going up against a well-rested, well-oiled, even-keeled scoring machine, the Red Wings. God. It would be a slaughter.

Anyway, enough dreaming. Good work San Jose. Tenderize 'em.

Hey,Turco

2008-05-01T22:20:00.001-07:00

That is all.

How About That Goaltending

2008-04-20T14:57:00.000-07:00

Goaltending is our weakness, eh? I'll admit it, the MSM was more or less right about Hasek. Well they get one every now and again. They were most definitely wrong, however, to suggest the Wings' goaltending was weak, as Chris Osgood has shown. I'm not entirely sure why Paul Woods on WXYT keeps saying Osgood had "back-to-back shutouts" in the series, but, hey, close enough. Here's Ozzie's series one stats:

2-0-0, 0.39 GAA, .993 SV%

That's pretty good. As for the O? I'm happy with the secondary scoring. I could use more primary scoring. Dats has been a force, especially with his physical play, and 5pts in 6G is good, but not great. Zetterberg has only 3pt in 6G and same for Homer. Maybe that's due to Ellis, but it seems to me that that best offensive team in the league ought to be scoring a few more goals.

Babcock on WXYT talking about how hot the building was and how bad the ice was. That's another pretty good reason for lower offensive totals.

Babcock, just now: "Dally likes to run defensemen, and I like to watch him run defensemen."

Hahaha. That's awesome.

How about next? I want Colorado. I'm scared of Calgary. I would love to see SJ and the ANH/DAL winner to beat the shit out of each other for a good seven games, couple OTs too. We've got momentum and feel good about our goaltender, I think we can take out the Avs quickly. That being said, I fear their offense - Forsberg, Sakic, Smyth, Statsny. That's pretty good. We will need Ozzie to be sharp, and we will need Dats and Co to put up bigger offensive numbers. We shall see.

The critical point from Babcock's presser: the Wings are better team now than at the start of the series. They took no injuries, found their goaltender, got Sammy, Flip, Stuart, and Draper games under their belt after long injuries. Now we've got some time to let whatever lingering injuries they may have get better. Oh, and as for Maltby? I don't know where you put him in the lineup. But if he's gonna play anything like any of the other guys in his age group, we need him.

Mmmm.

2008-04-16T17:31:00.001-07:00

Oh playoffs. You stress me out. So much so I have found myself unable to post anything. My strong suit is generally posting wild trade/FA speculation, crunching salary cap numbers, and vulgarity. Only the last of those three is applicable now.

Motherfuck.

I've been depending on NHL Center Ice Online for my hockey since I both live out of town and don't have cable. Oops. I've been scrambling to catch Wings games, mostly through possibly illicit means. Another reason for the posting dearth is that I was unable to watch Games 1 and 2 in their entirety. Found a good source for last game though! Saw it all on a crisp feed.

Of course they fucking lost.

So do I watch tonight's at my friend's place? Will I jinx them? I can't bear to stay away but you can be rest assured that if things start going badly I'll flee the scene. Here's some thoughts:

-As many have noticed, the fourth line is strong. Mark Hartigan has shocked me, but I'd still like to see Gator/Abbadabbadoo/The Abductor get some IT. Hartigan isn't as nasty as Abdelkader, who could make that line absolutely ferocious, and add some speed.

-With Kronwall and Stuart both showing propensity to jump up, I say split them up. Either put Lids and Kronner together and Raffy with Stuart, as Babcock did often on the road in the regular season, or maybe even swap Chelios and Stuart. Cheli is even keeled and can serve as a strong last line when Kronner jumps up for a hit or a rush. Of course, that leaves the question of who to put on the third pair. Yeah, forget about that.

-Sammy has shown himself to be a highly competent player, although still not really a highly competent offensive player. I'd like to see Hudler with Franzen and Fil, who both need an offensive boost. Huds is the guy to give it to them. Sammy-Drapes-Cleary would then make for an excellent checking line, with the possibility for offense. Drapes is, after all, the leading goal-scorer in the playoffs. Eerily similar to the beginning of the season...

-Hasek. I don't even know what the fuck to say. I'm just going to trust in the insanity.

Hockey All Night

2008-04-03T21:04:00.000-07:00

1200AM Central: YES! Luongo is out and the Preds are in! Strong work, Oil, strong work.

1:18 left: Penalty VAN! YES! Come on Oil... finish this...

1:42 left EDM-VAN: Luongo's complaining about Roloson. Dwayne looks like he's ready to charge and beat the shit out of Roberto.

Wow, two posts in one night. I've been watching hockey since 630 central. Started with the Wings coming back strong against the BJs. Speaking of BJs, it was a good night for names. A couple gems my brother texted me:

Regarding the dominant play of Henrik Zetterberg and Johan Franzen:
"dude, henhan zetterzen is the shit"
"zettertron for president"

Regarding a nickname for Justin Abdelkader:
"#8 - The Abductor"

I suggested "Abs" during my liveblog but I like the Abductor. Sparty is another possibility, one which highlights my own alma mater. Strong work MSU.

Then it was on to STL-NSH, where I caught the last period of Nashville's victory. Everyone and their mother wants Nashville to win the 8th spot, for travel and goaltending reasons. Nice to see that win but it felt dirty rooting for Preds. I tried to instead root against the Blues but I couldn't shake the nasty feeling of happiness when good things happened for Bubba.

When that one wrapped up I moved on to Oil-Canucks, where Edmonton is doing a marvelous job of knocking the 'Nucks out. A few more minutes.... ahhh, another Oil penalty. They sure are trying their darndest to blow this. Fuck! Canucks score! Review this, ref. Please.

Back to the Wings. They lost some serious sandpaper with Malts and Kopecky going down. Maltby will miss the first series according to Ken and Mick, Kopecky looks like a knee and sadly the end of his season. That's a guess by me, and a pessimistic one, but the way he was limping off the ice did not look good.

The Abductor should help repair some of that loss. Darren McCarty perhaps? Him getting the bench in favor of Derek Meech is not a good sign. But I like the idea of putting Meech in for his PP abilities. Better than Sammy or Stuart, both coming off of injuries. No need to actually play Meech on the 4th line. In the playoffs, it's time to start double-shifting your super stars. How's a fourth line of McCarty, Datsyuk, and Drake sound? I like it.

And how about Hudler? Dude can't buy a break. Do you sit him because of that, or keep on him in hopes his shots start going in? I don't know. Maybe for home games, and then put McCarty in on the road when you can't control matchups.

Whew, Vancouver is coming hard with 5 minutes left in their season. Roloson's pissed with the refs. He's about to take one out with his paddle. Take it easy Dwayne - finish your job knocking the Nucks out, then start hacking.

At this point, I'm rambling. It's late and I've been watching hockey for six hours. Did anyone see Ovechkin's goals tonight? After each one, dude flipped out and had a party on the ice. People go nuts for Crosby but no one is more charismatic and exciting than Ovechkin. A lot of people think Europeans can't be stars in America, but we all know that's bullshit. Americans love Europe. It's sexy. Those bitches at ESPN need to start pimping Ovechkin.

Last two minutes in Edmonton. Eeeeeee....

Live Blogging the BJs: Sparty On

2008-04-03T16:28:00.001-07:00

3-2 Wings: WAHOO! I just jumped off my chair and screamed like a monkey. Like Mick said, sorry end for Leclaire to take one off the back of the leg like that. But I can't pretend to be said after the Wings did everything they could and came up with nothing. Whoooo. We can take it easy on Sunday. Yes.

3:18 3rd: MULE! YES! That's the what the fuck I'm talking about!

7:30 3rd: Ken and Mick are on their game with the banter. They just agreed that Mick is living in the year 1975, which Mick followed up by saying he had an 8-track in his garage, if anyone wanted it. Genius. As for the game, the Wings are sorely missing Holmstrom right now. Franzen has come along greatly, but when it comes to the net-front, no one does it like Homer.

9:29 3rd: Come on! Leclaire! DAMN! Cleary continues to show he is ready for the playoffs. He tore up the side and powered to the net. I cannot believe we did not score. And I'm still upset about Kopecky. He was having one of his better games. And only getting better throughout the season.

12:25 3rd: Kopecky hurt. Motherfuck. Hello Mark Hartigan in the playoffs. Jesus Christ.

14:52 3rd: Leclaire's playing out of his mind. I forget that this guy was leading the NHL in goaltending stats early in the season. It's not fun watching the Wings lose this game with San Jose lurking, but it is fun watching Abdelkader win a spot on the playoff roster. Two straight huge scoring chances, first with Huds and Meech, then with Hartigan and Drake. Are they double shifting him? I like it.

2nd Intermission: Nice commercial for the playoffs, with Luongo. Moving stuff. Too bad he won't be in it. Yikes.

4:01 2nd: SPARTYWATCH: Strong work by Abdelkader on that bitch-ass Kenopka. Kenopka apparently was saying he was going to run Chelios tonight. Yeah I bet. Huds, Meech, and Abs(?) put together a good shift, which we needed. This game is like every horrible, stressful, gut wrenching, heart rending, artery aneurysmizing, playoff game, with a plucky young team and a hot goalie. Augh.

7:01 2nd: I like Chelios giving it to Nash for running over Hasek. There needs to be swift and violent retribution for touching our insane netminder, at all times.

8:10 2nd: New lines: Fil-Pavs-Cleary, Kopecky-Z-Mule. I likes. Didn't see who was on with Hartigan and Drake, I assume either Sparty or Huds.

10:36 2nd: Kopecky! What a hit on Boll! The more I watch this kid play, the more I wonder how, when every one is healthy, Hudler can be on the playoff roster and not Kope-

GOOAL! Hartigan! I don't like you but I like the fact that you scored.

9:00 1st: Holy smokes Pavs. What a fucking machine. Makes sense to me to put him and Z together - as I said before, if Mule, Flip, and Cleary can put together some offense, they give you a solid 2nd line and obviates the need for splitting up the twins. I'd like to see those three put together even before Homer gets back, to get them some momentum going in to the playoffs. It can potentially be a dominant line.

10:52 1st: INSANITYWATCH: Hasek looks sharp. I keep repeating the mantra that Hasek will be fine in the playoffs, he just needs the motivation of the postseason to get him going. Ken and Mick also discuss the possibility that Wings-Preds First Round may be set. Dear Sweet Jesus I hope so. Calgary and Vancouver make me sick. And Chicago getting in, against all odds? Gives me nightmares.

13:02 1st: SPARTYWATCH: Abdelkader looks good, nearly got his first point on Kopecky's shot. Surprising to see him getting 4-on-4 time. Wouldn't be surprised to see him get up to the third line with Kopy and Drake before the end of the game. Strong shot by Cleary as well, he's ready for the playoffs.

Pre-Game: Whoa. This was unexpected, by me anyway: Justin Abdelkader signed and in the lineup tonight. With Kirk Maltby out, the former Spartan has been signed to a try-out contract and will hopefully be signed to a real contract before the Saturday.

First of all, can I say I'm a little concernicus about Maltby. His stock with fans has gone pretty low lately and some people were unhappy with his extension. But in the new NHL you need 4th liners who play for peanuts, and to me I'd rather have Malts, who was killing penalties in Stanley Cup games when guys like Mark Hartigan were still playing on backyard ponds back home, than some training camp tryout scrub. And Malts is a guy whose intensity and performance go way up in the playoffs. Just from memory, I think he has scored more goals in the playoffs in the past couple years than the regular season. Okay, just checked, that's a lie, but you get my point. He's clutch. And his physicality is dearly needed.

That being said, it's exciting to get a look at Abdelkader. Funny how when Drapes first went down, his heir apparent, Darren Helm was recalled, and now with Malts down, the guy who is looked at as his replacement, gets a shot. Cool to see he'll be wearing 8, as well, it's a badass number.

But speaking of Helm it's weird the Wings didn't recall him, or Mattias Ritola, with their season winding down. Makes sense to get a look at JA and let the Griffs endure the humiliation of finishing out a non-playoff season. Builds character. There were rumblings that the Wings would be up against the 50-man roster limit, and that Abdelkader might get stashed at MSU another season, but I guess not, because Jim Nill seems to think the Wings will still manage to sign Pyett, Axelsson (2), and uber-goalie Daniel Larsson.

Game's on. Ken Daniels just said Malts is out 10 days, and probably all of the first round. Shiiit. Speaking of shit, doesn't say good things that McCarty is a healthy scratch to Derek Meech today. Might be because of Meech's PP QB skills, now that I watch him work the PP. But still. Makes me wonder.

Fitting Homer In

2008-03-31T21:54:00.000-07:00

No, it's not an April Fool's joke, I'm back from a hellish quarter (it's like a semester, but shorter and more pretentious) and the ensuing, highly relaxing, spring break. And I come to ask the question of what the hell to do with all these Top 6 forwards once they're all healthy and raring to go.

First of all, there's Homer. He has spent the last two years consistently playing wing to Dats, and, when Voltron is assembled, Hank. I think that when he gets back (expected to be Thursday against Columbus) Homer should return to the top line as well as the top power play unit. Why? Franzen is a more dynamic player and is more likely to thrive away from the Eurotwins. How's this for a lineup:

Hank-Dats-Homer
Flip-Mule-Cleary
Kopy-Draper-Sammy
Mac-Drake-Maltby

The FFC line gives Babcock his big, violent, shutdown line. This is the Anti-Thornton line. And, if Franzen can continue his monstrous streak into the playoffs, it gives the Wings two legit scoring lines. Granted he'll have Val Filppula for a setup man instead of Pavel Datsyuk, but I think Frankie can handle it. I also like that third line there. It's big, very stable defensively, and between Draper's speed, Sammy's shot, and Kopecky's growing ability to crash the net, you've got a formula for clutch garbage goals right there - much like the Grind Line of old. Then for a 4th you've got what I call the Grumpy Old Men line, which features cranky, violent, old-timers who know how to win and are safe in their own zone.

You'll notice a certain Czech midget missing, and that is precisely because he has been doing absolutely nothing for a very long time. He's a PP specialist, but with Homer back, you can basically use your top two lines as your PP units. Honestly, playing Hudler in the playoffs sounds good, but what are the odds he actually gets into a game? I say small. So you may as well put in Mac. Want your Oompa Loompa? Maybe for home games, when the Wings can control matchups, you can put him on the third line and go with this arrangement:

Hudler-Kopecky-Sammy
Drake-Draper-Maltby

Or possibly bump him up to the second line and have Fil center the third. But still I like my original arrangement better.

Kopecky Pulls a Datsyuk!

2008-03-19T16:52:00.000-07:00

How about that move by Kopecky against Columbus! Reminds me of someone...

Would be more impressive if the BJs didn't do this to themselves all the time.

School

2008-03-16T20:05:00.000-07:00

Be Back Soon.

Evaluating The D: 2008 Playoffs and Offseason

2008-03-10T21:01:00.000-07:00

Edit: Related: Meech deals with lack of PT, via Snapshots.

We begin with this gem from Bruce MacLeod:

Rookie defenseman Jonathan Ericsson was assigned to Grand Rapids after a seven-game stay in the NHL. Ericsson was moved so that he'd get ice time. With Brian Rafalski and Nicklas Lidstrom back, there was no spot for him in the lineup. Coach Mike Babcock said that he considers Ericsson an NHL player right now, one that he would put in the lineup without hesitation.

(Bold is mine.) Ericsson's re-assignment was no surprise since, even if he has out-played several of the Wings current D, he has no playoff experience and is unlikely to hurdle Brett Lebda and Andreas Lilja for the last D spot. However, Babcock's comment on Ericsson gives us plenty of fuel for speculation. First of all, is he ahead of Meech on the depth chart? Let's assume Nick, Raffy, Stuart, Kronner, Cheli, Lils, and Lebda are the top 7, regardless of who's #6. Ericsson got PT ahead of Meech a number of times during his call-up, despite Meech displaying a lot of game and surprising a lot of folks, most especially his game against Edmonton. It's no surprise Mike Babcock loves size, but not that much (remember Cory Cross vs Brett Lebda? I believe Brett won that particular competition.)

Ideally, we'll never find out who's #8 on the depth chart, because ideally we'll never get there. A much more interesting question is the #6 slot: will it be the physical, shot blocking, PKing but occasionally boneheaded Lilja? Or Lebda, who is much safer but brings pretty much nothing to the table (no offense, doesn't PK, not physical, doesn't drop the gloves, etc)? My guess? I'm going with Lilja, but methinks that come playoff time, the only minutes he'll get will be on the PK. Why?

There are two D-men on the ice at all times, and 60 minutes in a game. That means, 120 minutes of TOI between six defensemen. Lids will eat 30. Let's say 30 for Kronner. He PKs, he QBs the PP (albeit the second unit of both teams) and of course is a monster at even strength. The Wings will pair him with Lidstrom on the road in order to avoid having a non-physical/non-physical pair of Lids and Raffy. So between the Ni(c)ks, that's 60 minutes right there. Rafalski, Chelios, and Stuart are all obviously capable of big-time minutes as well, each in the 20s at least. I've argued that in the playoffs, Chelios is due for a bump-up in PT, after what he showed last year in the postseason after Schneids and Kronner went down.

Given their depth, the Wings probably will end up not playing Lids and Kronner 30 each just because they can afford not to. But my point is, their depth also affords them to not play their 6th D very much at all. So if you're not getting a lot of minutes, who do you go with, Lilja or Lebs? Well Lilja can pitch in on PK, whereas Lebda can't - Lilja can be physical, Lebda can't. Lilja blocks shots more than Lebda, and shot blocking in the playoffs is critical. My point is, Lilja makes for a better specialist than Lebda, even if Lebda is overall a safer D-man.

As for next season, Lilja's been offered a two-year deal, but that was ages ago and we haven't heard anything on that front in a while. Return to the quote from Babcock. He says Ericsson's NHL ready. Meech is under contract next year. Neither he nor Quincey can't be returned to the minors. Without Ericsson, and assuming Lilja and Stuart both jet in FA, you've already got a full boat with 7 defensemen. So my guess is Holland is backing off his plan of bringing back Lilja, for two reasons: Kronner's emergence as a star, and Ericsson's as an NHLer. I'm going to make a bold prediction right now, now that it's obvious: Ericsson is going to Filppula his way onto the roster. The question is, who else is on the blueline next year?

Nick-Rafalski
Kronner-_____
Chelios-_____

Lebda, Meech, Quincey, Ericsson

I've said it before, but for as solid and dependable as Brett Lebda is, he has little future with the Wings. This was the reasoning I used to say that they should trade the guy at the deadline, although I'm glad they didn't because I like having 7 playoff tested D going in to the postseason. But if Ericsson does force his way on to the roster, the Wings will have to move at least one D if they don't want to carry eight. And Lebda - he's got Ericsson, Meech, and Quincey on his back, to say nothing of the more distant Jakub Kindl and Brendan Smith. And Rafalski, Kronwall, and even Chelios and Lidstrom won't be making room on the roster any time soon. I don't see how he can possibly survive to get a contract extension.

I would've said dump Meech until I saw what the kid could do - I thought of him as a Lebda clone, but as demonstrated during the injury high-tide, dude's got skills. He worked the PP, jumped up in the rush, made solid passes, and altogether showed himself to be more offensively competent than Lebda. Don't let his speed fool you, Lebda is far from an offensive-defenseman. His goal against Minnesota to win it was a tantalizing taste of what that speed can do, but we've actually seen it pay off only a few times.

So here's my guess: Lebda gets dealt, Ericsson skips the Chris Chelios School For Defensemen and jumps right into the Top 4. It's a bit of a stretch, and if that indeed happens the Wings will be chomping at the bit to pick up a playoff tested D or two at the deadline. Then you've got Meech and Quincey platooning the #6 spot.

It's a very green defense, and another possibility might be to bring back Lilja or Stuart on a one-year deal, or sign a veteran FA in the offseason. Then you either give Ericsson another year in the AHL, or you put him at #6 and have Meech and Quincey ride the pines all season. But honestly I like my Ericsson-at-#4 scenario a lot better. Why? Because I fucking love Jonathon Ericsson guys. I can't wait until the Wings monopolize the Calder race next year, between him and Fabian Brunnstrom.

Anyway, enough dreaming. Hasek's looking sharp, the D is generating offense once again, and best yet, secondary scoring is picking up as Franzen and Hudler both showed last night. Chelios is ready to step in. The only question is: how quickly can Dan Cleary return to his epic-beard-growing, penalty-shot-scoring, Dion-Phaneuf-crushing, balls-to-the-wall, playoff-fucking-animal form? My hope: soon.

Summary
-Given that top lines/pairs play disproportionately more in the playoffs, whoever does win the #6 D spot won't be playing that much anyway
-I like Lilja to win it, not because he's a genius or anything, but because he's better at hurting people and killing penalties
-Look out for Jonathon Ericsson. I think he'll Filppula his way on to the roster ahead of Meech and Quincey, and be the #4 D next year
-That means at least one of Lebda, Meech, or Quincey will be traded or cut (my guess: Lebda)

Ryan Miller in 09-10?

2008-03-03T16:42:00.000-08:00

(Another long post, another concise summary at the end! Scroll down to skip the argumentation.)

Didn't see the game, but it's of course good to get winning again - a look at the stat sheet is enough to tell you how desperate the Wings were to score - goals from Drake and Maltby? Damn. Also, Kronwall, 2A and first star? Yeah, he's ready for the playoffs. I'm pumped guys.

What I will talk about, however, is the rampant rumors about Ryan Miller, who will be a FA in 2009, bolting Buffalo for Detroit. I would like to take a moment to address how ridiculous this is. Don't get me wrong, I love absurd trade/signing dream scenarios, as evidenced by my posts leading up to the deadline - Forsberg, Selanne, Markov; Sundin, Blake, Antropov, I was all about the Wings signing or trading for everyone and his mother. Except, you will recall, Olli Jokinen, because of his cap number. And the cap is precisely why Ryan Miller is extremely unlikely to sign with the Wings. If there's one kind of ridiculous acquisition scenario I dislike, it's the mathematically impossible kind.

Numbers are scary, I know, but let's look at the Wings cap situation from now until the 09-10 season when Miller's hypothetical contract would start, in easy-to-read spreadsheet format (all real contract values from nhlnumbers.com).

You'll notice that I'm projecting Zetterberg gets 8M, something he could easily demand, Cleary and Filppula get news deals, and that the Wings will have 6.65M in room in 09-10. Now, a lot of this is very nebulous, so it's hard to see how Miller would fit in - the 09-10 cap figure isn't known, nor is the value of nearly half the contracts the Wings would have at that point. So let's imagine a few scenarios in which the Wings sign Miller prior to 09-10. In the "L. Bound" scenario, I imagine the cheapest possible deals for all the Wings who will need new contracts between now and then - 7M for Zetterberg (he has suggested he'll take a hometown discount, after all), just 2.5M for Cleary (their current offer, which he hasn't accepted - Patrick Sharp has comparable stats and got 3.9M), just 2M for Filppula, 1.5M for Franzen. I also imagine neither Lilja nor Stuart is re-signed past 08-09, and that Ericsson is on the team on a cheap contract. Finally, let's imagine Miller gets 6M, which is significantly below his market value.

In this situation, as you can see, the Wings have 2.85M in cap room, but only if they spend the bare minimum on the last five forward spots, and don't carry an extra forward. Hudler, Sammuelsson, Kopecky, none of them will go for deals that cheap. This all also assumes the cap rises 6M from now until then. The cap, currently 50.3M, has been rumored to be heading to 53M, a raise of 3M, next season. So assuming it does the same the season after, we have a 56M cap. However, it's far from assured the cap will rise that much. Much of the NHL's salary inflation is due to the comparative strengths of the Canadian and American dollars. I'm no economist, but if the USD gains any ground on loony, the cap's growth will be stunted.

To summarize, yes the Wings can afford Miller in 09-10 if: The cap, Zetterberg, Cleary, Filppula, Franzen, and Miller himself all cooperate, and the Wings roll three lines because they have a bunch of scrubs rounding out their roster. Look back up at the chart and take a gander at the "U. Bound" scenario, in which I give each player the maximum value I think they could sign for. Zetterberg for 8.5 (he could get even more on the open market), Cleary for 3.9, Fil for 2.6, Mule for 2, and Miller for 8, which, again, I think he would get on the open market. That last value is maybe a little high (Luongo didn't even break 7), but the point is clear: in this scenario the Wings would be 3.15M over the cap. And still with a 4th line of 4th-graders.

I'm not saying Miller won't ever come here. I am saying it will require the Wings to trade some cap space to do so. I can envision a scenario ("Trade" column in the chart above) in which the Wings falter down the stretch next year, with Howard not yet ready to lead the team in the playoffs, and Osgood hurt or ineffective. Maybe Kronwall continues to develop, stays healthy, and shows himself to be a legit #1 defender (he pretty much already is), and Ericsson has a Calder-type season and earns a spot in the top 4. In this scenario I could see the Wings, at the '09 deadline, dealing Rafalski and Howard for Miller and maybe some picks. If Miller agreed to a hometown-type extension at around 6.5M, and Zetterberg gets ~7.8M, Cleary goes a little low for 3.2M, the Wings would be able to fit under the cap and actually ice a real 4th line. Suppose Kopecky rounds out the 3rd line for about 1M, and Helm and Abdelkader each debut at .85M, with the other two forward spots going to Drake/Downey-type veterans. The Wings would be a pretty green team, but with a stalwart in goal, in the big characters still around (ZDH, Cleary Mule Fil, Lids Cheli Kronner, Drapes). They would be a more defense-oriented team without Rafalski and with only one top flight scoring line and one middling one, but reasonably could do damage in the playoffs.

All this having been said, it's not going to happen, unless a goaltending catastrophe of the type described above strikes. And even if it did, even that might not encourage Holland to give up on Howard and slash salary to fit Miller in the cap. It wouldn't be a bad move because goaltending is the most important position and I don't mind spending big bucks there and re-arranging your roster to do so. But the Wings are ideally situated in net already - Howard showed during Hasek's injury that he's ready to be an NHL goalie next year, and Osgood is the perfect mentor. I see Osgood as starting the majority of the regular season and in the playoffs next year, a battle the year after, and the Howard Supremacy starting 2010-11. And with Howard in his RFA years, and Osgood on a discount/veteran deal, the Wings will continue to get great value at the goaltending position, which will allow them to spend so much on skaters (~28M for the top four skaters depending on Zetterberg). So why mess with a good thing?

Summary
-a lot of people seem to think the Wings should go after Ryan Miller in 09-10
-that's fucking ridiculous
-because of Zetterberg's looming extension in '09, and extensions for Cleary, Filppula, and Franzen on the horizon, the Wings would need to shed considerable salary to fit Miller, who will command 6M at the very, very least
-the only reasonable move would be to trade Rafalski, which might happen only if the Wings are very happy with Ericsson and the other young D's development, and very unhappy with Osgood/Howard
-but if Osgood stays steady and Howard develops well, why would you even entertain the notion?
-boldface allows you to highlight key ideas and is fun to use!
-avs suck

Stuart and Kronner

2008-02-28T14:02:00.000-08:00

(My posts have been getting lengthy lately, so for the reading impaired, I've decided to start putting concise summaries at the end. Scroll down for the goods.)

First things first, I love the Stuart trade, and I also predicted it, give or take a fourth round pick. He's by far the best value on the market. The guy has first round skill but hasn't found the handle. If the Wings can do to Stuart what they did to Cleary, he'll turn into a dominant defenseman. If he does reach his potential, the Wings won't be able to afford him in 09-10, but at the least they could bring him back next year, in lieu of Lilja.

Basically the Wings kept 1) their roster intact 2) all their prospects and 3) their first rounder in a very deep draft. The only criticism I could make is not snagging at least Mark Recchi, who Atlanta had no reason to hold onto. Huds for Recchi straight up? I don't know. Doesn't matter. I like this team, once it gets healthy.

Bruce MacLeod reports that Stuart will be paired with Kronwall, a wise move. As good as Meech has played of late, Kronner is second only to Lidstrom on this team (that's right, ahead of Rafalski) and a Meech-Kronner pair would be a little undersized and not great defensively. So you put Nik with Lilja or Stuart, but it makes sense to keep Lilja and Meech together as they have been for a while. Thus, Kronner-Stuart. The only problem is you've got a guy coming off a long injury break and a guy new to the team - if San Jose takes advantage of that Babcock would be wise to split them up (or just move the Meech-Lilja pair to #1).

Or, how about Kronner-Ericsson, Stuart-Meech, Lilja-Lebda? I dream of a Kronner-Ericsson pair, some day, maybe next year. Jumping up in the rush, drilling in goals from the blueline, brutalizing opponents along the boards and in open ice, Ericsson throwing hands with Pronger and widening that gap in his ugly goddam grin....

Ahem. Where was I? I drifted off for a moment. It was wonderful...

Back to Meech. The consensus is he fucking rocks. And I must say, I'm glad we didn't trade him, as I had suggested before the injuries happened. His problems are the same that we always knew: he is undersized. And I can't say it enough, it doesn't matter how talented you are, you can't teach physical, and the Wings need physical. So my original point stands that on an already small, relatively nonviolent team, Meech is playing from behind. But he's definitely in the game, as opposed to when we weren't seeing anything of him, and I assumed it was because he wasn't very good.

And he has, for the moment, jumped over Brett Lebda, who is relatively well established on the team. For the first time in a while Lebda's going to be playing for his place in the rotation, as will Andreas Lilja, who has a step up in that he does bring the hits. Lilja also leads the team in blocked shots (last I checked), something which is absolutely critical playoffs. Basically I think Lilja understands that he is not talented, and makes up for it by doing painful things.

As Iwo points out, despite all this talk of a four-horse race for the last two spots, Chelios is a fucking lock and don't even start the discussion. The only question about Chelios is whether when the playoffs start he moves up to the second pair or not. And I think he will, as I argued before, leaving the following playoff blueline arrangement:

Lidstrom-Rafalski/Kronwall
Kronwall/Rafalski-Chelios
Stuart-Lilja/Lebda/Meech

Kronner and Raffy will swap between home and away as they have all year (when healthy). From this vantage point, Meech is the number 6, as he's outplayed Lebda, and Lilja for all his size has been a bonehead lately as well (6 PIM Tuesday, including the fatal delay of game with under 2 to go). But I think (and hope) Lilja can turn it around and whip himself into playoff shape (and we all know the playoffs puts guys on a different level.) But on the other hand, we know from '06 that Babcock will put a kid in in April. So. Who knows.

Summary
-The Stuart trade was good
-Nik Kronwall is back, and that's very good
-Derek Meech is surprisingly good
-Andreas Lilja is unsurprisingly bad
-Chris Chelios will never die
-Chris Pronger is a motherfucker, and I hope he dies soon. In a fire.

Sweet Jesus.

2008-02-26T11:48:00.000-08:00

Kenny, I'm sweating over here. Stuart, Antropov? Both still available. Fletcher's gotta be sweating - if he doesn't make a deal the media will eat him alive.

Come ooooon. Dan Cleary was the Wings' most intense player in the playoffs last year. You can't know how he's going to recover from the jaw. The Wings need a Top 6 guy to offset that - not someone of a Cleary mold necessarily, but a physical guy who can score. Prospal only went for that? I would have taken Prospal.

I don't know how LA and TO could not make a move. They have to be sitting on the trigger, making everyone sweat. Including me. I am sweating folks. Dallas, SanJose, Anaheim with their late-comers, they've all put themselves in the Wings' league. None is clearly better, and my money's on Hasek, the Twins, and Babcock in a head to head matchup.

But I'd so much rather not go head-to-head. I'd love to go foot to head and curbstomp the competition the way we did mid-season. Because you never know when a dependable Swede's gonna fail to clear and a fluke goal decides it all.

I still don't want Hossa though. Recchi, Antropov, Stuart, hell, I'll take Satan. Hossa would just make things too easy guys.

Deadline Vigil

2008-02-25T20:36:00.000-08:00

-Mac is back. Holy shit. Yes! Guys, I'm pumped. If he sees the ice this season, wherever I am when he first gets out there in the Winged Wheel, I will stand up and clap. I hope I'm not at a funeral.

-Prospal to Philly, there goes one depth forward possibility. And Philly doesn't seem to have given up a lot for him although I don't know about the prospect. Hmmm.

-Boyle is also off the market as Tampa Bay locks him up. I'm not too concerned - he would have cost way too much to acquire and the Wings wouldn't have extended him.

-Speaking of extensions, there is no fucking way we get Hossa and extend him. It's just not going to happen. Unless we trade Zetterberg, or Lidstrom, or Datsyuk, or Rafalski. You just can't have five guys making 6M+. Take your pick. I'll go with the four we got. Same argument goes for why we can't trade for Jokinen.

-Forsberg to Colorado. Gee, they might even make the playoffs.

-Seriously, Hossa isn't going to happen. The Wings won't give up Filppula and more for a rental. Honest to God I don't know what I'll do if Holland does this deal. Unless we manage to rip off Atlanta. Which I don't see happening. One Thrasher I would like to see is Mark Recchi, as I said yesterday.

-Speaking of yesterday, damn that post was long. Thanks to Matt for the shoutout. But shit, that was long, longer than I ever envisioned it. Swear to God, that's the last time I blog on amphetamines.

If you're not interested in slogging through all 3500 words of it, my basic points were these:

-as it turns out, puck-moving defensemen are pretty important to the Wings' offense
-all our puck-moving D are injured, which sucks right now
-we have some pretty good puck-moving kids, Meech and Ericsson, so a puck-moving D isn't a deadline priority
-my deadline priorities are a physical D and forward scoring depth, ideally also physical
-I would like Brad Stuart or Hal Gill (or Rob Blake but I thought he said he wasn't going to waive his NTC), and up front I like Recchi, Nik Antropov, or maybe Feds if he's cheap. I saw somewhere that somebody was predicting it would take a major prospect and a first rounder to get Feds, or something like that. I mean I'm nostalgic for the guy but that's freaking ridiculous. He's worth a second rounder, at absolute best.

What's my guess for the deadline? I have no flipping clue. As Bill at A2Y often points out, guessing Ken Holland's mind is impossible. I think Recchi and Gill are pretty reasonable possibilities.

-By this time last year, the Wings had already dealt Jason Williams for Kyle Calder. I jumped up and screamed for joy when I saw that we had dumped Williams. As much as Calder did nothing, getting rid of Williams was still a good call.

-I would like to point out once again that Darren McCarty is friggin' back. Check this out:

The Wings just announced they have signed Darren McCarty and assigned him to Grand Rapids for a two-week conditioning stint. He'll return to Detroit around March 10. It's a one-year deal for slightly more than the league minimum at $535,000 (worth slightly more than $100,000 prorated) plus incentives.

Look closer:

He'll return to Detroit around March 10.

Closer yet:

[wi]ll return to Detroit

He will return. Not 'he may', but rather, 'he will'. I'm not a linguist or anything, but that means he fucking coming back! Actually, I am a linguist. Shit.

Edit: The important thing to know about linguists is, being a linguist doesn't make you a good writer, or a good proofreader, as highlighted by "he fucking coming back". (There's no "is" if you haven't caught it.) I'll leave it uncorrected, for irony's sake.

Deadline Manifesto

2008-02-23T21:47:00.001-08:00

Well the Wings' last game before the deadline ended with a loss, and Kenny Holland and the Braintrust turn their full, undivided attention to the market. This team (as it stands) has made its case, and now Holland must decided whether it's acceptable as is or not.

1 As For Standing Pat...

The obvious answer is of course not, and I'm not talking about the injury situation. There have been a lot of calls lately for Holland to stand pat, but I'm assuming by "stand pat" people mean "relatively speaking, stand pat". It would be silly for Holland not to pick up a veteran d and/or a veteran forward. Philadelphia got Modry from the Kings for a third-rounder, and I would be disappointed if Holland didn't at least make a small scale more or two on that level. Even if it turns out to be a Cory Cross-type acquisition, a third-round pick is, relative to what the Wings are accustomed to giving up, flippin' nothing.

Now abstracting away from minor deals, the bigger question is whether a bigger deal is what's needed. First of all, let's address the Wings current situation, especially the defense. We've been losing like it's our job lately. But my outlook on the Wings' playoff chances hasn't changed any since before the injuries struck - in fact, it's improved. Lidstrom was my biggest fear but by the sounds of it he's (to no one's great surprise) progressing quickly and will be back before the 3-week mark that the Wings gave after his MRI. (Actually, that's not true - he'll be healthy before the 3-week mark, but he'll probably be back well after it. If you think the Wings are taking it cautiously with the likes of Kronwall and Zetterberg, they're going to sit the Regular Heartbeat for as long as they can stand to.)

This situation has in fact improved the Wings' odds, and the only player whose injury I feel may affect the Wings in the playoffs is Dan Cleary - dude was maybe the Wings' best player in the Calgary series and will have a hard time reaching his normal playoff intensity after a long layoff and without being able to eat solid foods for so long. Motherfucker got 14 screws in his jaw just so he could stop eating through a straw as quickly as possible, and get his strength back for the playoffs. But who knows how he's going to look.

2 Why the Blueline Really Matters

As for the D, the picture has only gotten brighter because we've actually gotten a good look at Derek Meech (a damn good look, in fact.) It definitely shows that he's a rookie but he's shown a lot of poise, and to me the big things are that he solid defensively, if small, and that he can jump up in the play and move the puck. The latter is maybe the most important. Because if there's one thing the absence of Lids, Raf, and Kronner has shown, it's that the Wings forward corps just can't manufacture points without a gunner on the blueline. Far and away the Wings have suffered more offensively in the Top 3's absence than defensively. Tonight was shitty for our goals-against, and not having Chris "Highlander" Chelios did hurt us. But Osgood has been excellent when not left out to dry, and while he may be hurt, Hasek has done nothing to show me he still isn't an elite goaltender, when motivated. Furthermore, the Wings have one of the best defensive forward corps in the league, with dual-Selke candidates Hank and Pavs (what don't they do together?), as well as Draper, Maltby, Franzen, Filppula, a solid Samuelsson, and the recovering Cleary.

So really the big point here is points. Hank and Pavs tried their damnedest tonight to generate O but without trusting their blueline, the Canucks collapsed on them (going up against Luongo, and Kipper last night, doesn't help). How does this effect the Wings deadline strategy? To me this shows that adding a physical or defensive defenseman isn't as much of a priority. I still think the Wings are small on the back-end and that Anaheim (and others) will try to take advantage of that. But if the Wings want to insure against injury, they'd be better getting a guy who can move the puck if Kronner or Raffy or Lids misses any time in the playoffs - because it's going to hurt the Wings' GF more than their GA.

3 Where to Find Depth

The first answer is at home. Meech has shown he's not bad in that regard and he may be the depth the Wings are looking for. But Holland ought to take a good long look at the likes of Dan Boyle or Brian Campbell. Brad Stuart might be a good happy medium, size and offense. He also fits the Kyle Calder mold - a talented guy having a shitty season, thus potentially offering the best value. If the Wings could swing him for maybe a third or second-rounder, possibly even Hudler (eeh, no that's too much), I think it would be a strong move. If he impresses, you can definitely re-sign him to replace a possibly leaving Lilja. Nothing like the Red Wings pedigree to bring out the best in folks (regarding this point, let's focus more on Dan Cleary and Mat Schneider than Calder and Todd Bertuzzi).

Ericsson, to a lesser extent, has also shown he has the goods and I think he, not Kyle Quincey, is the Wings #8 man right now. Quincey showed phenomenal poise in last year's playoffs and I think with his size he's a valuable commodity for the Wings, but he's regressed in Grand Rapids and Ericsson is just simply a more dynamic player - frigging huge, great wheels, booming shot, offensive instincts, etc, etc. He's shown a delightful propensity for violence in GR as well. If the Wings find themselves getting roughed up by Anaheim on the back-end, maybe you swap in Ericsson for Lebda (possibly screwing GR over in their playoff hunt, but man, you gotta do what you gotta do). Consider that Lidstrom will be logging ~30, Rafalski and Chelios 20-25 each, and maybe for the first time in his career, Kronner will be approaching 30 as well. That only leaves 10-20 minutes of IT for the other two guys, and you know Lilja's going to get plenty of PK time. So while Lebda's got miles of experience on Ericsson, your risk is minimal because if everyone's healthy the #6 guy is going to get minimal IT, and JMFE can potentially send a message with a nice elbow to Chris Pronger's ugly goddamn face.

Back to Kronwall for a minute. I think that from his (expected) return on Tuesday until the end of the regular season you work him slowly back up to 25 minutes. He's probably not a guy you want to rest just before the playoffs (unlike Zetterberg, Datsyuk, Holmstrom, Franzen, Draper, and Lilja) because of all the rest he's getting now. But when the playoffs start I think you jack him up to 30/game, or close. Consider that in the five games before Kronner went down, the Wings were averaging 3.5 goals/game. Since Kronwall's injury, they've scored just under 2. In the seven games after Kronwall went down but before Rafalski or Lidstrom did, the Wings went 3-4, averaged 2.5 goals, lost to Toronto and Los Angeles, and barely beat Minnesota in OT on a miracle come-back. If you examine the Wings last four games, excluding the one against Colorado because we can assume the emotion of Lidstrom's injury and Downey's beatdown qualify it as exceptional, you'll notice we have scored two goals in those four games. Remember when we had that really long streak of not getting shut-out? If it wasn't already, it's definitely over, like, super-over.

What I'm trying to say here is, the Wings offensive D are vastly more important to the Wings overall offense than I think any of us could have imagined, and Kronwall represents an enormous part of that. I never really realized it until he got hurt, but Kronwall was having that break-out season we had all been waiting for. So anyway, 30 minutes a night in the playoffs for Kronner, you heard me. As a rule, the Red Wings should always have a Ni(c)k on the ice starting April 7th.

4 The Deadline Plan

So as for the blueline, I think the Wings' top target ought to be Brad Stuart, because I think he addresses the (in my opinion, pressing) need for size and physicality in the back court, but also because can move the puck and will soften the blow if any of the Top 3 misses any time in the playoffs (and more immediately, he could help turn around the losing streak and get Dallas the fuck off our backs.) I'm not totally clear on who's selling so I don't know who else is out there, but I would be most happy with someone of the same mold, big, decent offensive skill, relatively cheap. As I've pointed out before, the Wings have huge salary cap space next year (but definitely not the year after) so acquiring a guy with a year left on his deal might be a good way of getting someone relatively cheap. Most teams are looking strictly for soon-to-be FAs, so a GM is more likely to dump a guy with a year left for less since there won't be as much bidding.

Bigger name candidates would be Campbell and Boyle, and Blake if he were on the market. (Man. He would be perfect. It's a shame he won't waive.) They will cost a pretty penny though and as a lot of people have pointed out, other GMs are probably looking to fleece Holland right now so I'd rather not go after one of them if it will cost us an arm and a leg. The reason I'd like Blake so much more than Campbell or Boyle is that as an older guy who's expected to either retire or return to the Kings, he's sure to cost way less. Whoever gets Campbell or Boyle will probably factor into the cost the fact that they're going to try hard to sign them long-term, something the Wings absolutely cannot do, for any player on the market. Even if they traded Dan Cleary (*shudder*) and/or Valtteri Filppula (*shudder*), the Wings wouldn't come close to clearing the necessary salary from 09-10 onward. With Kronwall, Datsyuk, Zetterberg, Rafalski, and Lidstrom, the Wings have five legit superstars, and in the cap world, you just straight up can't get more than that. As it is, Hasek, Osgood, Holmstrom, Chelios, Lidstrom, Datsyuk, Kronwall, Cleary, Zetterberg, Filppula and Franzen are underpaid (to varying degrees.) If everyone on this team was getting market value regardless of age our cap number would be at least 70 million. Anyone who suggests the Wings ought to get a big name UFA at the deadline and sign them long-term is just plain-old smoking crack. It can't happen, and it doesn't need to either.

So given that costs of younger players like Campbell or Marian Hossa are much greater because they can potentially be not just rentals but major, franchise building blocks, that probably puts the Red Wings out of contention for those guys. I think Holland will investigate all of them thoroughly and I'm hoping that last year's general trend of deadline acquisitions not doing shit for anyone will bring prices down into Holland's range, but I'm pessimistic. Let the first-round picks fly over Campbell and Boyle - give me Brad Stuart.

5 Up Front

As for forwards, the Wings already have one depth, physical guy on the backburner in Darren McCarty. Guys, I'm trying really, really hard not to get my hopes up about seeing #25 in the old rouge et blanc again. Let's be realistic - he's the second most popular player of the Ilitch Era, but he's got a long way to go and to imagine him getting to a place where he can help the Red Wings, in the playoffs, is a far leap indeed. Much like with the d situation, I would consider the minimal here to be an acquisition of a lesser known guy, a physical, veteran guy. Maybe Mark Recchi, but I don't know if Atlanta's selling (besides Hossa).

As for some younger, more exciting prospects? Nik Antropov has been thrown out there and this dude has me foaming at the mouth. If Fletcher can't deal Sundin (and it looks like he won't be able to - more below) then the pressure to deal other guys will increase. Antropov is huge (6-6) and has twenty goals on the season already. The problem with him is similar to that of Hossa and Campbell - he's young and potential suitors will be thinking of him as a building block. I'm a little more hopeful that the Wings could squeeze him into the cap and extend him if he performs, especially if they offset it by shedding some salary up front, ie, Hudler (he only makes 1M, but if he ever turns it up, he'll be wanting a lot more when he hits FA in 09-10).

Vaclav Prospal has been mentioned and he lands somewhere between the veteran rental and young superstar investment. He's on pace for nearly 40 goals this season but is 33. Some team is going to give this dude cash and it's sure to not be the Red Wings. The only question is whether anybody dealing for him at the deadline will factor in a possible re-signing and drive up the price.

I like Antropov. Nagy doesn't excite me. Prospal would be cool if we didn't give up too much for him, oh and that Fedorov guy - maybe he could help, but I'm not sure of it. Maybe all the Wings' talent, being centered by a countryman, the emotion of the positive reception he receives at JLA, the standing ovation he by all accounts deserves, especially after years of absurdly stupid heckling.... Yeah, maybe he could bolster our ranks. However, I don't relish the thought of giving up anything serious for him, especially not to a division rival. But he is a grade-A example of a guy who's at the end of his career and could for a variety of reasons, re-sign for relatively cheap. Unlike Antropov, who realistically the Wings wouldn't be able to bring back, Fedorov maybe could.

6 My Final Picks

Barring any sudden, catastrophic changes of heart, which I don't expect because the Wings don't play again until after the deadline, below are some moves I'd like to see happen. Meech and Lebda were once expendable in my mind, and I still think that they won't survive the advent of Ericsson and Kindl. But they have shown themselves to be pretty capable, and it's certainly true that given the Wings' current d situation, it would be silly to give either up. With Kyle Quincey out of options, the Wings have to make a decision next year - if Lilja and Chelios re-sign, the Wings will have 8 NHL-only d-men. A decision will have to get made but I'll leave that for later discussion. Given how he has regressed a bit, Quincey is maybe available, but I can't imagine he'll swing much value, not more value than he potentially has to the Wings as a rare commodity: a pretty big, physical player.

The untouchables are Jimmy Howard, Ericsson, Jakub Kindl, Justin Abdelkader, Darren Helm, and Mattias Ritola. On the borderline for me are Quincey, Brendan Smith, Corey Emmerton, and Daniel Larsson. With all the talk about the depth of this year's draft, I used to include the Wings' first round pick in that group, and I'd still like to hang on to it. But you know what, fuck it, we're picking last after all. Anyway, here are some deals I'd make:

My Favorite
Hudler, and a 2nd for Antropov
-honestly, I have no idea what Hudler or Antropov's market value is. This is a guess, but I really think Antropov would be an awesome addition.

While We're Still In Toronto
Hudler for Alexei Ponikarovsky
-6-4, 20-goal guy

Czech For Czech
Hudler for Prospal straight up
-it's not that I have anything against the Oompa Loompa. I'm just saying, he's easy to trade.

The Minor, Veteran Grab
Lebda or a 2nd for Recchi
-the Lebda version of this trade seems kind of antithetical, but if Atlanta thinks they're in playoff position they surely will not be inclined to move a veteran for a pick. My understanding is that defense is their shortcoming, so a guy who can shore up their blueline immediately and also be an investment might be pretty appealing to Don Waddell. In fact, Lebda might be overpaying for Recchi. Dealing Lebda would of course only make sense if the Wings got at least one Top 6 D in another trade.

The Ideal Defenseman
Hudler, a 2nd, or Quincey and a 3rd for Stuart
-this might be the perfect complementary deal to the above, replacing Lebda and making room for Recchi. If the Wings don't acquire a forward it doesn't make sense to deal Hudler.

Back to TO
3rd for Hal Gill
-dude is 6-7. I didn't know they went that big.

I Don't Know Why I'm Writing This, It's Not Going To Happen
Hudler, Lebda, a 1st and a 3rd for Brian Campbell
-giving up Lebda doesn't hurt so much because you imagine Meech and Quincey will replace him next year, and Ericsson down the line. But all those picks for a guy who is sure to not come back, and who neither addresses physicality on the blue-line or secondary forward scoring - this is a bad trade. Why I am talking about it.

Yeah, This Would Be Pretty Darn Cool
3rd for Fedorov
-I would name a prospect of equivalent value, but I really don't want to give a player up to Columbus. At least this way we give them the opportunity to blow the pick. Didn't work out for Mike Green and Washington though.

Hey, Speaking of BJs
3rd for Michael Peca
-here's another character veteran who can dish the puck and maybe get those kids going. Again, the perils of dealing within the division. I wonder if Ken Hitchcock would tell Holland to go to hell. I know John Davidson would.

Here's Something To Make You Vomit
Cleary and Filppula for Olli Jokinen
-it's the only way to make cap space for him. I want Jokinen bad, but then again, I want Luongo bad too. Some things just won't happen, ever. Hey, by the way, remember all those Datsyuk-for-Luongo rumors like three years ago? Knowing what we do now, would you make that trade? .... Damn, I think you - no, you couldn't. Or would you... man that's a brain-buster.

Odds For Tonight's Game

2008-02-23T19:26:00.000-08:00

10:1 Andreas Lilja logs 30 minutes, 6 of which are manning the point on the power play (nope. a mere 20 for 'Dre.)
5:1 Jimmy Howard puts in a stellar performance (check)
4:1 The offense puts up a goose egg (almost check)
2:1 New number one defenseman Derek Meech goes down with an injury (check for a minute there)
1:1 Deputy Downey beats someone up (unfortunately, pre-game doesn't count)

Edit: Aaaaand Meech is already hurt. I would be in disbelief if I hadn't used it all up last night when Chelios got hurt. You've gotta be fucking kidding me.

Edit 2: Okay, Meech is fine. I never thought I'd say this, but thank God Meech is available to man the blue line. The thought of Garrett flipping Stafford quarterbacking the power play is enough to make me throw up.

Edit 3: I revisited the odds in technicolor above.

Sweet Fancy Moses.

2008-02-18T18:08:00.000-08:00

All that shit I said yesterday is out the window. We're fucked. Someone hold me.

How About That Adversity

2008-02-17T20:43:00.001-08:00

Adversity is a good thing, right? Actually I'm not being sarcastic. I still buy Babcock's line, you know, the one he broke out when Zetterberg went down for a few days and the Wings were forced to struggle on with two healthy, hot goalies, a deep defense, and a bunch of kids who looked like they were finally developing into offensive threats. Oh and that Datsyuk guy.

Well now we're in the shit, and it's safe to say we didn't know what adversity looked like until this stretch. No Kronner, no Raffy, no Clears? Hasek out, a defensive corp with Andreas Lilja, Brett Lebda, Derek Meech, and Kyle Quincey? Hudler and Filppula doing nothing? Now this is some adversity.

Maybe it's just my perspective or something, but I'm not really concerned. Maybe it's the soul crushing, heart rending, mind blowing colossus of grad school bearing down on me day in and day out that makes me think six losses in the middle of the regular season, with a perfectly good excuse is not such a big deal. Which isn't to say this shit needs to get fixed quick, and it of course isn't to say I'm not still stoked about the trade deadline, and all the more convinced the Wings need to add depth.

But folks, we're gonna get through this. Lebda and Lilja and the kids up front are gonna be better for it come April. Dats and Z? They don't need much adversity, and while Dan Cleary may face an uphill battle to get back up to speed by the playoffs, he won't need any encouragement. Last spring these guys showed they come to play when it's on the line, and a six-game slump in February is no indication to the contrary.

So I'll reiterate, this is nothing to worry about. This team is still the same team it was at the beginning of the year. And how about that Howard kid? You don't think his performance against Dallas is gonna propel him straight to the Wings' roster in September? The future is bright.

Assuming he doesn't get traded for Mats Sundin. Sweet Jesus Kenny, don't do it.

Replacing Dan Cleary in 3 Easy Steps

2008-02-10T16:45:00.000-08:00

In Dan Cleary, the Wings lost easily their most Babcockian player. Cleary has the skill to play with the Zetterbergs and Datsyuks, the defense Babcock demands and the grit he loves. Most of all, Cleary's game goes through the roof when the stakes do. Last year in the playoffs he was a monster, and if you require more recent proof, take a look at the fact that in the opening period of the Wings' game against the Ducks in January, that crazy motherfucker threw hands with Sasquatch. How do you replace him? I mean, you don't. But how do you try?

I've got a plan. Is it insane? Yes. Likely? No. Wild, wanton speculation? Absolutely.

Move #1: Sign Danny Markov. You may be curious as to why I would suggest signing a grumpy defensive D who's sitting out the NHL season, playing in Russia, in order to replace Dan Cleary. It's part of the plan, chill. Markov comes for free, which means you add size and muscle to the back-end and keep all your chips for a trade to replace Buckets. You might even sweeten the deal by offering him a two year contract. Next year Markov could replace a possibly departing Andreas Lilja, bridging the gap until the likes of Jonathon Ericsson and Jakub Kindl are ready to help the big club. Dave at Gorilla Crouch is back and agrees that defense is the Wings' biggest need. Matt at On the Wings continues to defend the status quo and Brett Lebda. I still like Lebda and he showed what his speed can do with the game-winner in Minnesota. But just look at the Anaheim series. The one place the Wings were lacking was their ability to clear the crease and prevent Anaheim from crashing Hasek. So again while I really like Lebda, I still believe Markov is an upgrade. I liked Brandon Inge too, but an upgrade is an upgrade (not that Danny Markov is Miguel Cabrera or anything.)

Markov will bring much needed physicality, and has good speed for a big man, enough to be the Wings "offensive" defenseman on the third pair. Why the third pair and not the second? For one, as Matt at OTW has said a couple of times, a Lilja-Chelios pair would be pretty slow, potentially vulnerable. And also Markov has been playing in Russia all season and his game might take time to find form. And there's nothing wrong with having a couple guys who could easily be Top 4 defensemen elsewhere as your third pair.

Move #2: Trade for Mats Sundin. I didn't realize how big and strong Sundin was until I saw the Toronto game. And until Cleary's jaw was fractured in two places and wired shut, I laughed at the thought of the Wings needing to give up what would surely be a high price for Sundin. Now? I agree with Bill at A2Y, the Wings need to think again about getting Sundin or someone of his ilk. I would love Jokinen, as Bill suggests, but it ain't in the cards: Jokinen's deal runs through 09-10, at a cap hit of 5.25M. Next year, even with new contracts for Cleary and Val Filppula, the Wings might be able to squeeze him in. But the year after? Zetterberg's extension, Franzen, Hudler, Sammuelsson, Kopecky all needing new contracts? There's just no way to get Jokinen's existing deal into the cap.

As for Sundin, what do you give up? Start with a first rounder. Yeah, it's a deep draft, whatever. We're picking last so it doesn't matter. Then you add Lebda and Meech. I know I just said I like Lebda, and I still like Meech. But by picking up Markov you make both irrelevant, and the simple fact is, as I've said before, neither has a future with the Wings. Next year, Kyle Quincey must clear waivers, meaning he'll be Hudlered onto the roster. Unless the Wings carry eight defensemen, Meech is a goner. As for Lebda? He'd likely make the team next year, but he won't survive the advent of Ericsson and Kindl, to say nothing of Brendan Smith further down the pipeline. Again I like Lebda and would rather have him for depth than not, but to get something you have to give up something, and if the Wings do acquire a big top-6 D, dealing Lebda makes the most sense, certainly more than giving up a prospect who has a bigger future with the team.

The cherry on top to sway Cliff Fletcher? The Oompa Loompa. I like the guy, and he's won me over. He's slumping now but if the last big injury is any indication he'll step up and deliver. He is bound to be a big-time producer at the NHL level, and I wouldn't mind seeing him in a Winged Wheel for a while (if may alliterate). But like I said you have to give up stuff to get stuff. Hudler, Lebda, Meech and a first for Sundin. You avoid dealing any of the untouchable prospects (who are, IMHO: Howard, Kindl, Ericsson, Abdelkader, Helm), but Fletcher may prefer more experienced guys anyway. He's likely looking for as short a rebuilding process as possible, so young, relatively experienced NHLers may be what he's looking for. Add in the Red Wings pedigree and these guys might be more valuable than you think. Take a look at Chicago. A huge part of their rebuilding process apparently was to poach the Wings and it worked. Lang, Williams, even Sopel, have all been good for the Hawks, better than they were for the Wings.

But with the loss of Cleary and the proposed swap of Hudler for Sundin, the Wings are short on forwards. Since Cleary should be back for the playoffs, you could alternate Ellis and Downey for the home stretch, and likely the Wings' grip on home ice won't be affected. But since you've basically got another spot, why not make use of it? That's why I suggest the last and most radical part of my plan.

Move #3: Recall Darren Helm. Helm is one of the Wings' top forward prospects, and looks like the next Kris Draper. He has experience at the championship level and has played very well in his first pro season with the Griffins (compare with Jakub Kindl, the Wings top skater prospect, who is currently attempting to shoot the moon with a +/- of -22). Helm is supposedly going to make the team no later than 09-10, and is expected to challenge for a job next year. Can he help the Wings now? Who knows. Can he help them in the playoffs? Probably not. Let's find out. If he's in over his head, send him down. He'll be pumped up by the experience and will come to camp next year ready to roll. Check out these lines, assuming all three of my proposed moves:

Hank/Fil - Datsyuk - Holmstrom
Hank/Fil - Sundin - Samuelsson
Draper - Franzen - Kopecky
Drake - Helm - Maltby
(Ellis, Downey)

Lidstrom - Rafalski
Kronwall - Lilja
Markov - Chelios
(Quincey)

For the playoffs you put Cleary on the second or third line, bumping down Sammy or Kopy. You bump Chelios up to the second pair, and make for a Lilja-Markov third pair (a damn good third pair, IMO.)

Oh, and that other Darren? Yeah, he might not be bad call up either. If he earns it.

Chris Chelios is Highlander

2008-02-03T14:35:00.000-08:00

Another good win last night by the Wings, with the Big Five coming through on the offensive side, and solid goaltending from Osgood. Datsyuk and Zetterberg controlled the game, although I am a little concerned that the Franzen and Filppula lines didn't do much. My biggest impression from the game, though, was the 5-on-3 kill in the second period, the entirety of which was anchored by the Ancient Greek himself, Chris Chelios. Lidstrom and Lilja, two critical pieces of the Wings PK, were in the box, so the task fell to Chelios and Rafalski. According to the NHL's TOI stats for the Boston game, Chelios had a shift of 2 minutes 52 seconds, and 2:39 of that was consecutive with no whistles. Chelios helped kill all 1:47 of the 5-on-3, in which the Wings gave up only one shot, 0:13 of 5-on-4 with no shots allowed, and a frantic 0:39 of 5-on-5 in which the Wings were trapped with four D on the ice (the PKers Chelios and Rafalski, and Lidstrom and Lilja out of the box.) And all this on the second of consecutive game nights, which Chelios likely wouldn't have played if Nik Kronwall was healthy.

So what does this say? I don't disagree with Babcock's caution with regard to Chelios. He is older, and at his age injuries are much harder to recover from. For the regular season, the third pair, limited minutes, and mentorship/locker room leader role is perfect for Cheli. But in the playoffs? All that caution is useless if you don't unleash one of the best defenseman ever to play the game, especially after he just showed he is still an elite defender capable of logging big minutes. Chelios stepped up to the #4 spot last season when Kronwall went down, and was the Wings #2 man when Schneider got hurt. He averaged around 25 minutes and anchored the Wings D. I think that, unless the Wings acquire a Top 4 D, Chelios should be Kronwall's partner when the playoffs start, regardless of the injury situation. That leaves a solid Lilja-Lebda pair for the third pair, unless the Wings acquire a #5/6 D.

And the Wings should indeed still go for a D at the deadline. And the better the guy they acquire, the better the team, so if they can get a Top 4 guy, great. If there was one thing Anaheim beat the Wings at soundly in the WCF it was taking care of the crease. The Wings got pushed around up front and the Ducks continually crashed the net. And by replacing Markov and Schneider with Lilja and Rafalski, the Wings only got smaller. So a big man is definitely a priority, and I'd still love to get Blake - he would bring physicality and as a bonus, shore up the 2nd PP unit. But Chelios showed last night that the Wings don't really need a Top 4 guy, because the Wings already have 4 elite defensemen - one of them is just masquerading as a #6.

Colorado Post-Game Thoughts

2008-02-01T19:02:00.000-08:00

- Great win. Colorado tried the same route as Anaheim used in their last game for beating the Wings, but Quenneville seemed to have missed two critical parts: Anaheim didn't beat the Wings, and Colorado doesn't really have the skill to make it work. They did a good job getting in Wings' faces, but 12 shots on goal speaks for itself. The Wings did a good job battle two enemies: Colorado, and what was either the choppiest ice or the worst luck the Wings have seen all season. They didn't get frustrated and kept to their game. As Babcock would say, "adversity is a good thing".

-I like the Hudler-Fil-Kopecky line. Kopecky had probably his best game of the year against Anaheim, after Drake and Zetterberg were already injured and Cleary got hurt in the Pronger fight (a great fight by the way - Cleary is possibly the manliest dude on the team, and held in there against Sasquatch way better than anyone who gave up 6 inches should have. He's a motherfucking cowboy, and I eagerly anticipate his splendorous playoff beard.) Anyway, back to Koko. He's been giving the team energy all year, has been eager to throw his body around, and has shown occasional signs of creativity on offense. I'm not looking for him to develop into a goalscorer, but it's clear he's got hands and Fil and Huds can make use of them. He went to the net against Anaheim and knew no pain. He brings a physical element to that line, and if he can be more consistent he'll help the Wings roll three very good two-way lines. With Hudler, Filppula, and Kopecky, are we looking at Datsyuk Jr, Zetterberg Jr, and Holmstrom Jr, respectively? Well they're all European, that's a start.

-I like the Cleary-Franzen-Samuelsson line as well, of course. Size, physicality, and shut-down defense, they've got. They make for a superior Grind Line. The only question is whether they can put together any offense, and be the Wings #2 line straight up. All three have shown offensive abilities, especially when put with one or more Eurotwins. But does any of them have the offensive creativity to feed the other two? Hard to say. Time will tell. If they can't generate offense you have to think about replacing Sammy with Fil or Huds to try and get something going. (As much as do like the HFK line, I like them a lot better as a #3 than a #2.) Or maybe the scoring winger Franzen and Cleary need is... MARIAN HOSSA!

-Hossa, Sundin... blech. They would put the Wings over the top for the Cup, no doubt. But the cost... euch. I can't even think about giving up Kindl or Ericsson or Howard. Those three are in my mind untouchable (as are Abdelkader and Helm.) But man... either of those guys would do wonders for the Wings. More likely the Wings will pick up a smaller name. Recchi, Holik, Lapointe? All solid choices. As for defense, I still like Blake but not if he's going to cost a Sundin-like amount. Scott Burnside mentions Joni Pitkanen and Dan Boyle, but again I'm concerned about the cost. Whatever the name-level, we do need to pick up a d-man. The only question is how big a name. A forward is gravy, but still welcome.

Kronwall... Noooo....

2008-01-30T18:44:00.001-08:00

Dammit.

Blake and Forsberg(!) in Light of the Cap

2008-01-14T17:23:00.000-08:00

0 Reviewing the Discussion

Yesterday I suggested the Wings go for Rob Blake and talked about who the Wings might give up for him, specifically Brett Lebda or Derek Meech (both of whom I judge to have little future with the Wings given current d-men under contract and a near-logjam of prospects). Today there's been some awesome discussion around the blagoblag about Blake. Ansar Khan struck first, noting Blake is much more likely available, and is far more in line with the Wings' needs. Al at TWFE joins in with an epic post spanning the entire Detroit/MSU sports scene, including a section on the Wings. And Matt at On The Wings provides his thoughts, suggesting the Wings shouldn't give up Lebda if they do go after Blake, as he thinks a Lebda/Chelios pair is superior to a Lilja/Cheli pair. In the comments on Matt's post, HockeytownTodd weighs in, suggesting the Wings should stand pat, noting the failure of deadline moves across the league in the recent past. He also notes the Wings might be better suited going for a cheaper d like Keith Carney.

1 Lebs or Lils?

First of all, although Blake is my favorite target, the Wings primary goal is to get more physical and not sacrifice defense, so I certainly would be cool with a range of other d-men. Cost, however (as I'll show below when I break out the spreadsheets) is much less of an issue because at the deadline, all salaries are 1/4 their July 1-amount, and the Wings have plenty of cap room.

When I suggest Lils be the 6th d, I'm thinking mostly of the PK minutes he logs, which presumably neither Blake nor Lebda would be able to replace. And while Matt thinks Lilja and Chelios would be a perfect storm of slowness, those two are also among the Wings' best d-men positionally. Lilja makes lots of mistakes with the puck but less so with his positioning. Lebda's speed on the other hand can get him in trouble when he jumps up. It is true that a Lils/Cheli pair would lack an offensive d-man, but with Cheli being the stay-at-homer, Lilja's turnovers potentially have less impact than they do now, when he's the last man back and Kronner is up on the rush. One thing Matt and I can both certainly agree on, however, is that the Wings would be better suited giving up Meech and not Lebda, and that seven playoff experienced D is certainly better than six.

Oh, and to counter my rampant daydreaming and wild speculation, Matt also brings a healthy dose of skepticism:

Who knows, though, whether the Wings will actually look to Blake to fill out their defense? It stands to reason that they’d want to shore up against injuries this time around, as losing Mathieu Schneider while already down Niklas Kronwall was probably the single biggest reason they were eliminated, but Blake may not be their man. Holland likes to go for guys few people were expecting and the more I hear the Blake rumor, the less I’ll believe it.

He's probably right on the money with that last line.

Here's a somewhat crazy idea: if the Wings held on to their current top six, and added Blake (or any other Top 4 caliber blueliner) why not dress all seven d? Scratch, say, Kopecky as your 12th guy. Double-shift Hank and Pavs (I guess it would be 1.5-shifting if they were alternating) to make up for the last forward (you could also give extra minutes to Cleary or Filppula). Then you can use Lebs at even strength, and Lilja on PK. And if the Eurotwins get gassed or the game is in the bag, move Lebda up to fourth-line winger and use Lilja on the 3rd pair. Lils can also be sent out when someone needs to taught a lesson, and he can have much more freedom during the course of the game to drop the gloves, because he knows he won't shorthand his team's blueline. Actually, the more I think about it, I really like this idea.

2 Getting Realistic With the Cap

All this speculation is of course well and good, but these days of course you need to think about the cap. Recent extension for Lidstrom and Osgood have clarified the Wings' salary situation for the next two years. The situation is this: in the summer of 2009, the Hank Zetterberg's new, undoubtedly mammoth contract will kick in, and the Wings will be faced with re-signing the likes of Franzen, Samuelsson, and Hudler, and probably three other forwards as Kopecky, Drake, and Downey's contracts will have expired. Depending on how much the cap rises, this could leave the Wings in a pretty tight spot. Potentially a very tight spot, in fact. The flip side, however, is that next season, Zetterberg will still be on his cheap-o deal, and pay cuts by Draper and Lidstrom, Osgood's hometown deal, and the expected(???) retirement of Dominik Hasek will leave the Wings with a pretty big cushion. Granted the Wings still have yet to re-sign Filppula and Cleary, but even with those deals the Wings will have a lot of room to maneuver. Below you can see all this for yourself on the cap chart I've drawn up.

All speculative salaries are in bold. I've made a few assumptions: Hasek's retirement and Howard's assent, and also relatively low-ball salaries for Cleary and Filppula, as well as the returns of Chelios, Lilja, Drake, and Downey at identical prices.

So what does all this speculation about 08/09 and 09/10 have to do with Blake? Well, nothing, at the moment. As you can see the Wings can handle his contract easily, since it would be prorated to 1.5M at the deadline. Notice under "Current Bonuses" I've put 2.3M, ie, all of Chelios and Hasek's bonuses. By paying those bonuses this year the Wings avoid hamstringing themselves next year (which in turn will make it easier to fit next year's bonuses under next year's cap, thus keeping 09/10, the critical season, free of the burden of past years.) So if the Wings go for Blake they'll have no problem handling this year's bonuses. Same for any other d, assuming the Wings don't have their sights set on anyone with a July 1 salary higher than 6M. Danny Markov is a possibility here too, and is maybe the second best option out there after Blake, in my opinion (given that he comes for nothing, anyway).

3 Rampant, Insane Speculation

Bringing the speculative madness to a fever pitch, George Malik at Snapshots points out an intriguing article which says Peter Forsberg may play hockey this year after all, and goes on to say he is not limiting himself to his former teams. And while the Wings don't need scoring enough to give up primo prospects for Mats Sundin, they'll of course take Forsberg for free, just as they would gladly take Teemu Selanne (at the right price).

The most interesting part of the article is where Forsberg mentions that he wants a multi-year deal, and furthermore that Philly is willing to give it to him. Now the Wings were loathe to give Todd Bertuzzi the extra year, and Forsberg falls into exactly the same category of talented, but old and injury-tastic. Even so, just look at the cap room they have in 08/09 on the chart above. Nearly eight million. Granted Filppula and Cleary may very well cost more than the 2M apiece I estimate but even so the Wings are amazing shape for next year. Suppose the Wings give Forsberg exactly what Bertuzzi got from Anaheim, 4M/yr over two. The first year of the deal (this year) would of course be prorated (1M if Forsberg joins on deadline day). Check out where possible deals for Forsberg and Blake leave the Wings:

(I show Meech and Ellis being taken off the roster on deadline-day as well, although this doesn't mean to suggest I think they will or should. Lebda could be dealt instead of Meech, and Downey could be waived instead of Ellis. But Meech and Ellis make the least of any Wings, so if the team elects to move anyone else, they would have even more room.) Notice the Wings are left with 870K in slush for the rest of the year, which should certainly be enough to cover injury call-ups (notice they spent 120K on that in the first half; having fourteen forwards certainly helps avoid call-ups). And even if disaster strikes and they Wings are forced to call up multiple players for long stretches, worst-case scenario is the Wings defer Chelios and/or Hasek's bonuses to next year.

And take a look at 08/09 in this scenario. With Forsberg on the roster, the Wings still have a whopping five million, and only one roster vacancy, the sixth/seventh defenseman (my guess is it'll be one of the Grand Rapids kids, ie, less than a million). Even if Forsberg falters, the Wings have ample money to replace him. Oh right, and this all assumes that the cap stays at 50.3M, and I think we can probably count on it rising at least a little. The Wings would be comfortable if it stood pat next year, however. But for the Wings to realistically hope to keep the likes of Franzen, Hudler, and Samuelsson, they have to hope it goes up significantly before the 09/10 season.

4 To Conclude...

It's clear that the Wings' primary aim should be a physical d-man at the end of his contract, the best case scenario being Rob Blake. And it's clear that they have the cap room to get pretty much anyone and still cover this year's bonuses. What's less clear is whether they might take advantage of great salary position next year to target a player whose deal extends to 08/09, whether it's a defenseman or one of the free agent forwards like Selanne or Forsberg. In any case, this year and next the Wings' budget is in great shape and the team has a lot of flexibility, both in terms of the length of the contract(s) they acquire and the dollar amounts. However, Zetterberg looms and the Wings need to keep a very careful eye on the 09/10 season.

Wow, that post got so long I had to break out numbered sections with titles and everything. Gimme a break, okay? I'm an academic.

Deadline Needs Clearer?

2008-01-13T19:26:00.000-08:00

Back when the Wings biggest hole looked to be secondary scoring, we thought about Mats Sundin and Teemu Selanne. Sundin was probably never in the picture due to the king's ransom he would require in exchange (just look what the Blues got for Keith Tkachuk last year). And he certainly isn't on the radar now that the Wings have bigger needs. Selanne? He comes for free, pick/prospect-wise so the Wings will continue to be interested but conventional wisdom is that it's pretty unlikely to happen. Forsberg, if he became viable (ie, demonstrably healthy), would be another option the Wings would be stupid not to at least investigate.

But it's obvious what the Wings need now. I mentioned a while back that the need had shifted from scoring to the blue-line, but in the last few games that's become far more apparent. The Wings defense was nonexistent against Minnesota, and they got shoved around against Ottawa. The folks at the HNIC Hotstove brought it up, and I agree wholeheartedly that Rob Blake should be the Wings' target. He would bring physicality and defense and would make for a stellar Top 4 D. Imagine what he would do for the second PP unit, which at times looks completely inept.

Now, if we get Blake (or any big, physical D-man for that matter; an offensive touch is a bonus) the question becomes who goes? Lilja is probably the easiest answer and it's true that the guy makes more mistakes than any other Detroit blueliner but, what would the point be of swapping one physical d-man for another? Blake would be an upgrade over Lilja but overall wouldn't make the Wings much better physically. To me Lebda is the weak link.

I like Lebda and the Wings have invested a lot in his development. He's become a solid defenseman. But he doesn't bring any size to the table and he doesn't bring any points. He hasn't gotten a lot of PP time, but on the other hand he hasn't shown at all that he can handle the puck or make breakout passes. His speed makes you think of him as an offensive guy, and his ability to jump up on the rush can help generate offense, at even strength. But I would rather have a third pair of Lilja/Chelios than Lebda/Chelios. Besides physicality and the occasional fisticuffs, Lilja logs huge PK minutes and consistently leads the team in blocked shots. The Wings absolutely need him in the playoffs (just hopefully not in the Top 4).

Which means Lebda becomes expendable. Granted I'd rather have Lebda than Meech for playoff insurance (and playoff insurance is a very good thing, as Lilja and to a lesser extent Quincey showed last year). And it's tough to give up Lebs. But look who's behind him. Quincey, Kindl, Ericsson. All big, physical d-men, the latter two having tremendous offensive upside. You really think Lebda's going to survive those three guys making the NHL roster? It might not be next year but you have to imagine he's going to get squeezed out eventually.

Same goes for Meech. Granted Meech is an actual offensive D-man, QBing the power play for Grand Rapids last year. But he's only on the team because he's out of options and the Wings need a seventh d-man. And he hasn't shown anything in limited time with Wings. And since he has no experience to offer the team during the playoffs (I'd rather call up Quincey than play Meech), to me he's the first chip the Wings put on the table when trying to get Blake (or any other defenseman).

To me Howard, Helm, Abdelkader, Kindl, and Ericsson are the untouchables. Howard's the goaltender of the future and no position is more important than goaltender. He's a no-brainer. Helm and Abdelkader are top-notch physical forwards, a rarity in the Wings' system, and both have extensive championship-level experience. Kindl and Ericsson are goliaths and are easily the two prospects I am most excited about. I only leave off Quincey because of the Wings outstanding depth on the blueline.

If we go for Blake or another potential PP-QB, Samuelsson is another possibility for trade fodder since the Wings would have their 4th point-man for the PP, although I'd rather not deal him. Kopecky is another possibility, but I'm afraid the guy might turn into a first-class grinder with a knack for the net (a la Dan Cleary). And of course there's draft picks.

So maybe Lebda, Kopecky, a first, and a third for Blake? Perhaps Sammy, Meech, a 1 and a 3? I'm honestly not sure what the market value is for any of these guys. Just stabbing wildly at this point. Oh yeah, and if the cost makes you squeamish... there's always Danny Markov. No doubt that guy would bring an edge to our second pairing.

Another Hometown Deal

2008-01-09T18:25:00.000-08:00

Part of the Wings success is undoubtedly the value they get on some of their contracts. Hank Zetterberg for 2.65M? That's gotta be one of the bigger steals in the league. Other guys are cheap because they're young (Filppula for 733K) or they're just much, much better than when they signed the contract in the first place (Cleary, 663K). But a lot of Wings deals come at hometown discounts which dramatically help the Wings squeeze all the talent they can out of the same budget as everyone else in the league.

Holmstrom for 2.25M, which he signed at the tail end of his best offensive season ever. Chelios, still one of the best defensive d-men in the league (as he showed when called upon in last year's playoffs) for 1.15M (includes bonuses). Lidstrom's old deal of 7.6M was considered a slight discount, when his value was being estimated at 8M. His new deal, a very slight cut to 7.45M, is a much bigger bargain, where he could have reasonably hit the market and asked for the league max, ~10M.

And now another, Osgood for 1.5M/yr for 3 years. First, Big Al sums up why bringing Osgood back for three years is a smart move for the Wings, over at The Wayne Fontes Experience.

...keeping Osgood gives long time prospect Jimmy Howard a safety net, and the ability to ease his way into the lineup over the next 2-3 years as the full-time net minder. (If he's capable, that question is still not answered) It's also good for the Wings' locker room, as Osgood is thrilled to stay in the D, doesn't matter if it's as a starter or backup. I'm sure he'll retire a Red Wing.

Right on the nose. But as good as this is for the Wings in terms of Osgood's ability to play and mentor Howard, it's even better because of the value they get on his deal. Currently Osgood is, in both GAA and SV%, the best goalie in the league. I'm no mathematician, but 1.5M is a bit less than he could have gotten. He wouldn't command 6M or anything, but I think the guy could have gotten 3 or 4 over the same length from a couple of teams this summer.

This is huge not because of next year, when the Wings will enjoy pretty considerable salary room, especially if the cap continues to rise (I have no idea whether that's likely or not). The critical year will be the season after next, 09-10. That will be the first year of presumably a pretty big contract for Hank Zetterberg. Datsyuk, Lidstrom, Rafalski, Kronwall, will all still be under contract as well. Could be a tight situation. But we can now be sure that the Wings will at leasts be keeping goalie expenses low that year - Howard will presumably still be on a sub-1M rookie deal, and Osgood for just 1.5M, without a sacrificing talent (assuming Howard progresses and Osgood doesn't precipitously decline...).

To me that's the best and most critical part of Osgood's deal - we probably could have fished around for a goalie of his caliber and gotten one if we needed to do so this offseason. But he offers what a run of the mill UFA can't (or rather, won't): huge value that will help the team compete in the long run.

Edit: Matt over at OTW basically already said all of this. Nice work Matt!

4th Liners and MVPs

2008-01-06T15:41:00.000-08:00

First things first: the Wings play Colorado tonight and Homer and Malts return. The unsurprising thing is that Holmstrom will return to Datsyuk's line, which should make for a pretty dynamite top unit. The surprises are these: Drake will stay on the Grind Line, despite Babcock's promises earlier this year that he would have a reduced role in the first half. I guess it's the second half now, but I figured that since Drake had to step up in Maltby's absence Babcock might give him a breather.

The other surprise is that Samuelsson, who has stepped it up lately, got dropped to the fourth line with Franzen and Kopecky. Granted, another way to interpret this might be that Babcock means for the fourth line to be something more like the 3.5th line, given it's got two top-six forwards on it. Kopecky worries me, but one thing Babcock might start doing as we approach the home stretch is to double-shift Datsyuk and Zetterberg, to give the Wings three legit scoring lines. Franzen has also been scoring lately, so a Hank/Dats-Mule-Sammy line could actually do pretty well for itself, in both ends of the ice, methinks.

Say the Mule line pulls ~12 minutes a night. Divvy up the third forward's IT between Dats, Hank, and Kopy. All three would play wing for two reasons - less skating for the Eurotwins and more IT at center for Mule, who clearly excels there. If you're worried about Dats and Hank's minutes, I think you can take them off PK duty. The Wings have six solid PK forwards besides them: Draper, Franzen, Maltby, Cleary, Filppula, and Drake. Kopy and Sammy can also kill if needed. Obviously you can use the twins there in a pinch (big face off, late-game, 5-on-3, etc) but I think, as good defensively as they both are, I don't really want either blocking shots at this point, not if we've got the talent to not really need them.

On to far more trivial matters, namely the huge glut of mid-season grades, awards, and predictions. I could really care less about all of these; all I do is scan the article for Wings' names, feel good when I see them and feel outraged when I don't. Then I remember what a pointless fucking exercise they are and get on with my life.

I will say a few things though, out of boredom mostly. First of all, Hank Zetterberg is better than every one of the other EC forwards getting tossed out there, and I will not even mention his Selke-caliber defense. I will say exactly one thing: despite some injury time, he is in the ballpark for top goals and points. Unlike Lecavalier, Kovalchuk, Crosby, Alfredsson, Heatley, Ovechkin, Spezza, St. Louis, and Sundin, Hank plays in the Western Conference, which is a) arguably the superior conference, b) inarguably the vastly more defensive conference, c) inarguably the more physical conference, d) inarguably the conference with better goaltending, etc. The guy is going to score 50 and 100 in the West, which I think blows 60 and 120 in the East out of the water. I don't understand how the guy doesn't more credit for doing what he does IN THE WEST.

All this having been said, Jarome Iginla is far and away the most valuable of the forwards being talked about, including Zetterberg. Luongo could beat him, but of forwards Iginla takes the cake. He's on pace for 60 and 120, not just in the West but in the Northwest, home to Luongo and Lemaire. The guy isn't just his team's leading goalscorer, like Zetterberg, he is also their captain, like Lidstrom, and their heart and soul, like Draper (to say nothing of their sheriff, like Downey).

But back to the Wings. As much as Hank is much better and more valuable than the Eastern high-fliers, he is nowhere near being the Wings' or the league's MVP. It's not even close. We went 4-1 without him. You might argue Datsyuk is more valuable, you might not. For the record, I would, but it's not the point. Nick Lidstrom is so far and away the MVP of the Wings it's not even funny. Hank can't be the league's MVP if he's not even his team's MVP. Can you imagine five games in the middle of the season without Lids. I can't. It's not just that I don't want to, I literally can't. It's beyond human reckoning. The guy is the fucking most important player on the team. A defenseman is in general more valuable than a forward to start with. We're talking about 30 minutes a night against the league's top talent. Don't even start the conversation. Don't even try to talk about Hank being the MVP. It's not even fucking close.

Should be between Luongo, Iginla, and Lidstrom. Then again I'm WC-biased. But my point is you'd think that a guy who is undisputably the best player at his position, who is the captain of far and away the best team in the league, would get at least some consideration. Whatever. When he lifts the cup in June, Crosby and Lecavalier can go... well I'll let you finish that.

Sorry Sammy

2008-01-01T21:48:00.000-08:00

Okay, so, I was wrong when I suggested the Wings' biggest need at the deadline was secondary scoring. Well I wasn't wrong, secondary scoring was the biggest problem, then. It's just that all the kids needed was an infusion of pressure and IT, not veteran talent. Valtteri Filppula has gotten the most spotlight, with Hudler, Sammuelsson, Kronwall, Cleary, and Franzen all stepping up.

I stand by what I said, that acquiring Selanne would be a great move - it would bolster a potent offense, and with a proven winner. The addition of Selanne would make for one of the best offenses ever, and would come at the cost of no prospects, picks, or players. That being said, my guess is for Selanne it's Ducks or retirement. And it's clear now the Wings don't really need a scorer, at least not of his caliber.

So the big question, really, is can the Wings' kids maintain their scoring prowess when Hank returns tomorrow, and Homer does later in January. Let's take a look at their performances during Hank's four-game absence.

@Minnesota, W, 4-1
Every one of the top six (Fil, Dats, Cleary; Mule, Sammy, Huds) collected a point. Nick, Lebs, Lilja, and Rafalski got assists. Kopecky scored late.

@St. Louis, W, 5-0
Fil (2 G) and Huds (1 G, 1 A) blow up and grab most of the spotlight. But take a look at the veterans: Datsyuk 3 A; Lidstrom 1 G, 1 A; Rafalski 1 G, 2 A. Sammy also picks up 2 A.

@Colorado, W, 4-2
Fil pots 2 again. Hudler scores. Sammy grabs an A and an empty-netter. 2 A for Kronner.

@Phoenix, W, 4-2
Sammy scores, Hudler, Kronner, and Fil get assists. It's all about Datsyuk though: GWG, assists on the tying goal and the empty netter.

St. Louis, L, 2-0
I didn't see this game so I'll assume it didn't actually happen.

So one question is, did the kids, Filppula and Hudler especially, step up because of the increase in responsibility? Or can we attribute their success to veterans like Datsyuk and Lidstrom cowboying up in Z and Homer's absence and improving the players around them? Little bit of both I think. Datsyuk was unquestionably the MVP of the road trip, stellar* in both ends, with Val being the prime beneficiary. He and Hudler were beauties both, engineering the efforts of the secondary scorers, dominant with the puck in the offensive zone. To me Hudler was the best kid on the trip; he was Datsyukian at times.

Which is why I think Babcock's doing the right thing putting Z on the second line tomorrow. I think Datsyuk has shown, in this mini-absence as well as at the end of last season, that he needs Hank less than Hank needs him. Z's more the goalscorer, Dats more the playmaker. Put any guy with some goal-scoring sense on the line and Pavs'll make him look good. But while Hank can be the more dynamic and prolific of the two, he needs a playmaker of his caliber to really make use of his talent. Huds isn't quite there but he's close at the moment. As good as Jiri has been lately, he'll be all the better with Z taking all of the opposing D's attention. I would expect Hank won't score much in the first few games back, but that Huds will have a lot more space and will find a currently hot Sammuelsson a lot. And that's especially good because we can expect Z to be a little rusty, so look for Huds and Sammy to pick up the slack.

(We need a nickname for Huds, a la Mule or the Perfect Human. I've been going with "The Littlest Red Wing" or "The Little Red Wing That Could" but the guy needs something a little more complimentary. How about "The Subtle Knife." Nerdy, yes. But appropriate: Huds is small, doesn't look like much, but he'll fucking kill you. Also he can cut windows into parallel universes. Actually, that name is so cool I think I'll have to give it to Dats. Hmm. I'll think of something for you Huds.)

So with Fil still on Pavs's line, and Huds and Sammy benefiting from Zetterberg's return, hopefully the Wings are appropriately set up to keep their young talent contributing. However there is one issue: as I mentioned, with Hank centering his own line he'll get a lot of attention. Including physical attention. Which makes me a little concernicus. If he were on Dats's wing he could elude attention as The Subtle Knife is currently the league's best player. Then you could put Filppula and Hudler together, keeping the appropriate goal-scorer/playmaker dynamic. But you risk screwing up Fil's mojo which the Wings likely don't want to do.

One good question: Do you put the Eurotwins together for the PP? At the moment I'd say no. Use your two lines as they are (adding Franzen up front to the second unit). The other good question: where does the Wings attention turn for the deadline? Clearly it must be defense. I'll talk about the Wings deadline strategy and cap situation in the next few days.

*- language nerd moment: I think the word stellar has become unfortunately watered down. It once meant star-like, celestial, godly, angelic. All more fitting descriptions of Datsyuk's performance lately.

Lidstrom Re-Signs

2007-12-26T09:57:00.000-08:00

Well count on the Wings dynasty lasting at least another two years... no word on the finances though. My score-at-home Wings cap spreadsheet eagerly awaits word on how much. Here's hoping for a discount, less than 7M. Wouldn't blame anybody if Nick got his value though.

Also, looks like Hartigan's been recalled, meaning Homer, Z and Malts are all still out. Not concerned about tonight's game. It's a good night to change the Wings' luck against the Central. Of course, we'll still lose, but I'm optimistic anyway. I like this Fil-Dats-Cleary line.

Christmas + Hockey = Ahhhhh.

2007-12-22T16:29:00.000-08:00

Over at A2Y, I believe the stress train may be boarding, thanks to Hank Zetterberg's back issues. For me the concern isn't losing Zetterberg for this game, but rather, the lingering question of whether Hank can stay healthy.

As for tonight... no Hank, no Homer. Worried? Naah. Datsyuk cowboyed up last year without Hank and carried the Wings to the playoffs. He can do it again. Bruce MacLeod reports Val and Buckets are his wingers, which I like very much. Fil's on a roll and Pavs will get him the puck. Clears meanwhile will get physical. He's no Homer, he definitely lacks that particular net-front berserk attitude, but he doesn't lack for sac. Haha, did you like that rhyme. Anyway Cleary is without a doubt Homer's only equal when it comes to balls. His performance against Calgary in the playoffs was a work of art. (So was his beard.)

Anyhoo, is anyone else watching the FSN pregame? Gotta love Huds reading the Grinch. Oh here's Filppula. Nice. Also good was the Wings Weekly segment that aired just before, with Murph showing ten year olds how to body check.

"Has anyone here body checked before?"
"No...."
"Ah, well, today you're gonna learn."

Oh here's Kopecky. Nice leather jacket dude. Okay, enough of the running commentary. Heading over to A2Y for the liveblog now.

Prediction: Wings 3, Wild 1 (Datsyuk 2, Gaborik 0)

ESPN Sucks

2007-12-20T22:38:00.000-08:00

Homer hurt... again? Auuugh. Oh God. Pleeeease tell me it's not serious. Euuugh. I'm gonna be sick.

Making me feel slightly better is watching Melrose on ESPN just now. I know, usually ESPN has shit hockey coverage. But between Gaborik tearing it up with five goals (first since Fedorov in '96) and Sid the Kid getting the Gordie Howe hat trick(!), not even Crapcenter (haha... see what I did there?) could ignore hockey tonight. Oh, despite the loss, a nod to the Wings from Melrose:

"...best line, best defensemen, and the two best goalies in the NHL."

Nice. We'll see how that best-line is doing when the word on Homer drops.

So-So Secondary Scoring? Sammy Sucks? Some Say Swedes Seek Sundin, I Say Sign Selanne

2007-12-19T17:24:00.000-08:00

Glee! Wings game!
Sadness. It's on NHL Network, so no Center Ice Online.
Glee! There's a Yahoo feed!
Sadness. It doesn't work.
Slightly less sadness. WXYT.

Well in lieu of watching the Wings, how about some wild speculation. The other day I suggested Sammy has not been pulling his weight, and whether you buy that or not there's no doubt the Wings need some scoring help for the playoffs. The Wings are well-suited to load up for the postseason, with ~5M in cap-room or so. At the deadline, that's 20M in July 1 salaries. Wow! The Wings could add a top scorer, a physical d-man, and a goalie if Hasek suffers a groin-catastrophe before then.

(Bah! 2-2.)

But the problem here is that, the Wings don't just need space for these guys, they need to trade for them as well. As amazing as Sundin would be, what do we trade for him? I mean a first, sure, and then... what? Kindl? Would that be enough? A couple more picks and minor prospects? The Wings' cupboard isn't bare when it comes to prospects but we don't have enough to acquire 20M worth of talent.

(Yes! Homer!)

So how do you stock up without blowing the future? How about Teemu Selanne? With the return of Niedermayer, the Ducks have just 1.9M left, my guess is not enough for a guy who scored a ridiculous 48 goals last year, to say nothing of the fact that they traded his former linemate. Wikipedia reports he was waiting for the birth of his fourth kid to announce whether he'd come back, but the same article reports the kid was born on December 7th.

So here's what you do, Kenny: contact Selanne, offer him more than the Ducks can: 2.5M for a half-season, a spot with the Cup favorites, a young Finnish protege for a linemate, and did I mention the best opportunity to win another cup. You let him think it over until after the Christmas-roster freeze. Then of course he says yes to a 5M deal, which is pro-rated to a 2.5M cap hit since he's coming in at the halfway point. By making an acquisition at the halfway point instead of the deadline you eat a lot more salary, but you still leave yourself nearly 3M, and avoid dishing out any prospects, picks, or young players , all the while getting the most potent scorer available on the market, free agent or trade or otherwise.

(Yes! Cleary! And how about Kronwall getting going here. I like it.)

Sure enough as I'm talking about how much the secondary scoring needs a boost, Cleary scores from Kronwall and Sammy. Hudler's got a goal too. Well, the point remains that Selanne would make a badass acquisition. Check out these lines:

Hank-Pavs-Homer
Hudler-Fil-Selanne
Cleary-Franzen-Sammy/Kopecky
Drake/Kopecky-Draper-Malts

Tell me that's not an imposing lineup. And still enough to make one more move... hey, Danny Markov would be another great, for-free acquisition, huh? How about two acquisitions to put us over the top without giving up a thing?

Welcome Back Homer

2007-12-18T02:30:00.000-08:00

Please, never leave us again.

All three goals from the Flying Circus + Lidstrom. Hmm, secondary scoring strikes (out) again. HockeyTownTodd makes some good points in defense of Sammy in the comments on my last post. Hmm indeed. Tomorrow (today) I'll have something more on the Wings second-line issues. Stay tuned...

Well, Somebody's Gotta Suck

2007-12-16T21:10:00.000-08:00

It can be kind of hard, being a fan of an amazingly awesome team. As dominant as the Wings are, and as much joy as that may bring me, as a blogger my number one priority is to gripe about shit. Well that's hard with the Wings. They're too good. They have no glaring holes. But I have to do what I have to do. Somebody's gotta suck. It's with a heavy heart that I declare Mikael Sammuelsson to suck.

Last couple years, the Wings have found themselves in similar situations. Team just too damn good, no holes, who can we rail on? Well last year we were fortunate enough to find a couple of weak links, namely Jason Williams and Robert Lang. I was never a Williams fan, even during his 20-goal season in 05-06. And when he stopped producing last year my face lit up with glee. The team was doing well and I had someone to rag on.

Well he got traded and I was ecstatic. And I didn't have to look far for my next target, Bobbo Lang, who I hated right up until he joined up with R-Dub in Chicago. Actually I still hate him, but more to the point I can't wish for Ken Holland to trade him anymore. This year there's nobody standing out like Williams or Lang. Hudler started slow but since has become the Wings top scoring threat outside of the Flying Circus. Filppula likewise has been less than stellar offensively but is a long-term project and will undoubtedly get there. Sammuelsson though?

His MO is he's a streaky scorer. Well, he's on a streak alright. After potting 11 points in his first 13 games, Sammy's had 3 since. I know Babcock likes him, because he's a big dude, but it's time to give the guy a little tough love. Not even Hank and Huds as linemates have been able to coax points out of the guy. I'm not calling for the Sammy's trade or anything, but he needs some 4th line time. Worried about who will play the point on the PP? No worries, he can keep that job. Babcock gave Hudler PP time when he was pulling 4th line duty, a good call. But in the meantime, when Homer returns to the Flying Circus on Monday, how about putting Cleary on the second unit with Fil and Huds. Gives you a Grind Line of Draper, Drake, and Franzen, and a fourth unit of Kopecky, Sammy, and Downey/Ellis. When Malts gets back you bump Drake to the fourth line, or you can put Franzen there, and call it the third line.

HockeyTownTodd says the Wings suck right now, despite not having lost in regulation in... a long time. Despite two fluke goals accounting for all of Florida's offense, I have to agree they weren't great last night. The Wings need to shake things up (very slightly) and one move is knocking Sammy down a peg. Combine that with getting Homer and Drapes, leaders each, back on Monday and you have yourself a recipe for a change of momentum. If Sammy starts potting goals on the PP you can reward him with second-line time. But until then, a message to Babcock: size ain't everything, bud. Sammy needs a sit-down.

Blues, Ducks Make Move... Ish

2007-12-14T18:02:00.000-08:00

Edit: More thoughts from Nathan over at HockeyTownTodd's (who I've added to the blogroll!)

Andy McDonald, MacDonald's, Golden Arches, St. Louis, that big Arch thing... there's a joke in here somewhere but it probably sucks. So I'll avoid it.

The standings tell me the Blues are 13 points back, but they also tell me the Blues are in second place. And that means I'm keeping an eye out for them. And the Ducks are reigning champs, are getting Niedermayer back, and also their GM is a world-class douchebag. So I'm keeping an eye out for them too.

Blues get McDonald, who is having a shitty season. Ducks get Doug Weight, who is having a shitty season. A couple of crappy players get swapped. (Question though? Ducks take on salary in the Weight (3.5M) for MacDonald (3.33M) deal. I thought the point was to make room for Niedermayer...) But I could see either, or both, being rejuvenated by new surroundings. This move can only lead to bad things. Good to see the Ducks give up young player though. Niedermayer's great and everything, but my only memory of him in the semis last playoffs was him getting burned over and over again by Val Filppula. I look forward to that again.

The Blues have no goaltending so I'm not concerned about them, at least not in the playoffs. The Ducks though? They have all the pieces. And despite a bad season so far, they're just 4 points out of the #2 seed. They're not catching us if Doug Weight lights spontaneously on fire and scores 50 goals, but they will still be scary in the playoffs.

Priorities

2007-12-13T12:58:00.000-08:00

[Note: Thanks for the comments on the last post. GMail saw fit to send the email notifications I got to the spam filter so I never saw them until now.]

There are important things, and then there are unimportant things. At least, where I'm sitting. Some things are debating and discussing, but not by me. These include:

-Attendance
-Who should get the "Hockeytown" moniker

Yes "hockeytown" is in the name of my blog. But it's just a name. It's just a really stupid name. It was a PR stunt. When did they debut that? As I recall, although I was in grade school at the time, it was debuted before we even won our first Yzerman Era cup. I mean, it certainly didn't belong to us then. Is Detroit the hockey capital of the US these days? Arguably, yes. Which of course implies, arguably no. It's arguable. Personally, I won't argue though. To me it's just a fucking name. (Which isn't to say there aren't good Wings bloggers out there making a commendable defense of the title.)

As for attendance... ahh... I really don't care. I can't even summon the first word. I just don't care.

Now! Here's some things I do care about:

-Tomas Holmstrom's knee
-Kris Draper's knee
-Kirk Maltby's shoulder/back/hindregion

Aha! Now we're talking about players, of the game of hockey, and their ability to play said game. Now I'm excited. And by excited I mean utterly terrified. The standings tell me the Oil are dead last in their division, but the standings also tell me they have as many points as Nashville, who nearly beat us. Also, Edmonton is 6-3-1 in their last ten. And we will be without our top two defensive specialists, and our top offensive specialist.

Which of course may mean nothing if the Eurotwins go out and do their thing, prolly with Sammuelsson on the wing. As Matt at On the Wings suggests, playing with Pavs and Hank should be a great opportunity for Sammy to get going. I'm not too concerned about Homer missing a game. More? I don't want to think about it. I also don't want to think about Draper and Maltby simultaneously going down with injuries, both of which are lasting longer than originally forcasted, both having just signed contract extensions, both being old and causing me to wonder when they'd finally slow down.

The plus side is that the current Grind Line of Cleary, Franzen, and Drake is doing quite well. Reminds me of the Wings' fourth (and best) line during the Punch in the Face: Cleary-Franzen-Maltby. They brought energy and hustle, and outside of Hank and the Captain, were the only guys bringing it.

Tonight? A win of course, even if only provided by outstanding individual efforts from Hasek and Datsyuk. Interested as well to see what Kopecky can do on the second line (if he indeed plays there as Bruce MacLeod reported). He and Fil are both coming off goals, and Hudler is still playing very well. Could be a good night for the second unit.

Return of the Crazy

2007-12-09T16:34:00.000-08:00

I like ambiguous titles - see, I could be talking about Dominik Hasek's return to starterdom (or rather, 1A-dom) or I could be talking about my own return, as if a phoenix from the ashes, only instead of a phoenix I'm a geeky Wings fan, and instead of ashes, the first semester of grad school. No promises starting January 7th, when I go back - but at least for the next month, I should be on top of every little scrap of Wings news. Starting with the games against Carolina and Minnesota.

I only saw bits of each game, but of course, when you don't have access to the actual product, any blogger worth his salt can bullshit some analysis based on statistics! So here we go:

Dominik Hasek
Last 3 games: 1.00 GAA, .942 SV%, 100 IR

"IR" is a statistic I made up called "Insanity Rating". It's a scale from 0-100 and the most desirable for a goalie is 100. Patrick Roy is known to have a lifetime average of 97, Hasek's average is 99, which explains why those two are hall-of-famers. (Ed Belfour, however, had a 137 lifetime. ) Anyway, Hasek's game is on: he's healthy, confident, and willing as ever to throw himself out of the crease at lightning pace.

By the way, re: Wild fans' uproar over Hasek's move on Gaborik, the save was legal. Gaborik shouldn't have his head down. Hasek has done that a million times, and 999,999 of those times the forward has gone flying over top, albeit not in such dramatic fashion. Could Gaborik have gotten hurt? Yeah he could have. So could Jiri Hudler have gotten hurt when Phaneuf laid him out. Who's to blame? Hudler and Gaborik. Both of them need to have their heads up. Phaneuf and Hasek are playing by the rules, and doing what they should do to help their team.

Also by the way, I love this video of the save, which I assume is Czech in origin, which has the captions: "Hasek trammels like young. DOMINATOR flying instructor." Anyway, moving on.

Andreas Lilja
This Season: 100% GWGTGR

Another made-up statistical category: Game-Winning-Goal to Total Goals Ratio. As Ken Daniels said during the game, Lilja has scored twice, both game winners. Statisticians may argue about the sample size, but a 100% GWGTGR is a clutch goal-scorer in my book.

Jiri Hudler
Last 16 Games: 1.06 PPG

Another stat pointed out by Ken Daniels, this one actually meaningful. Thanks to Pavel Datsyuk's recent tear, Hudler hasn't even been the Wings' best forward of late. But his contribution is as important - with Datsyuk and Hank rolling the Wings are among the best in the league. Throw in secondary scoring, ie, Hudler? The Wings are unstoppable. That's what distinguishes them now from the earlier streak - both had dominant goaltending, both had suffocating team defense, both had a Eurotwin on fire. The difference now is Hudler.

By the way, here's a real stat: Hudler leads the team in points by a player not on a line with a Eurotwin. When you consider Sammy, Franzen, and Flip have underperformed thus far, Hudler picking up his game is huge.

Johan Franzen
3 PTs last 2 GMs

Franzen looks like he is starting to go the way of Hudler. If this isn't just a blip (given the way he was going in the preseason, I don't think it is) he's going to give the team a huge boost. I'd love to see a Cleary-Franzen-Hudler line, a Draper-Maltby-Drake line, and a Sammy-Fil-Kopecky line, once everyone's healthy. To me Cleary, Mule, and Huds are the top 4 5 and 6 scorers on this team, as far as what they've shown. But just as easily Sammy and Val could turn it up and replace the more grinderly Cleary and Franzen. How that fivesome progresses over the course of the year is going to affect the team more than anything, methinks. As long as three of them are going at any one time, the Wings have will have all the secondary scoring they need to win the Cup. If all five of them get going? Throw in a deadline acquisition forward, and you have three potent scoring lines, and assuming the two-headed goaltending monster is still in form, you have one of the best teams ever assembled, and a lock to win the Stanley Cup. Mind you that's a lot ifs, but none of them is unreasonable.

The European Union
Six-foot twenty, fuckin' killing for fun

Even though both goals were gravy, you knew the Flying Circus wasn't going to get left off the scoresheet. Holmstrom (6:03) had more PPTOI than Nick Lidstrom (6:01). But he's no PP specialist - notice he only scored his goal against the Canes because he was on for a clutch defensive situation. As for Datsyuk, his dominance is hardly quantifiable. You could start with his goals, assists, takeaways, and +/-, but none of that fully demonstrates how much he absolutely owns the ice. Zetterberg, with an assist Sunday, the hat trick against Minnesota; he's continuing a monster season. But I'll go out on a limb: not that it matters because they're always together, but Dastyuk is the better Eurotwin. It occurs to me that I haven't seen anyone ask that question. Well there's my answer, at least for now.

Hank Zetterberg Can Do Anything He Puts His Mind To

2007-11-09T18:57:00.000-08:00

Truly beautiful: watching the Wings' PP unit stay on the ice for what seemed like forever, refusing to relent (even after the power play expired) to make damn sure Hank extended his point streak. Despite Ken and Mick's adamant insistence upon jinxing the shit out of Z, he, Pavs, Homer, Nick, Rafalski, and a rather out of place Kirk Maltby got the job done in phenomenal fashion. I don't know what says more about Hank and this team - that he's registered a point in 16 straight, or that he and the rest of the guys on the ice basically just willed him to get a goal. Successfully.

What's that BJs? You want the puck back? Yeah, sure, just one sec, I gotta take care of this point-streak thing. Hey, hold still... there we go. Okay, all yours.

Although the scope of importance was much, much less, that last push for Z's goal reminded me of the last game against the Ducks last year. Further proof that the Eurotwins' individual ability and drive is such that they can simply will goals. They have the capacity to throw this team on their collective backs and drag them. The difference, of course, between the Wings and the Canucks is that Luongo had to throw the Nucks on his back for the entirety of the playoffs - Hank and Pavs should only be called upon from time to time.

Anyway, the game was altogether great. I missed the first, but Hasek looked solid. And the goal spread was exactly what you want it to be: a couple goals from your high end guys, and a couple goals from your role players. Oh, and again I missed the first so maybe Wings fans just got tired, but I didn't notice any Fedorov booing. Progress? Question mark?

Edit: In fact, NHL.com says that for the Z goal, the unit was on the ice for 1:37. Just sick. And for the Homer goal, he and Dats were out for about the same amount of time.

Bah!

2007-11-07T17:10:00.000-08:00

So I'm finally getting around to seeing games, getting a feel for the team again, enjoying the hell out of watching Z, Dats, and Homer make the rest of the league look stupid, to say nothing of Chris Osgood. And then what? A week off. The fuck? What kind of scheduling is that? Six days between games? Does that normally happen or am I overreacting?

And then of course on that long awaited day, Center Ice decides to black me out. I live in Chicago, not Nashville, you dorks. Word is Kopecky got bumped from the lineup though? Interesting. And ESPN tells me Cleary scored from Filppula and Hudler. Does that mean he's pulling 2nd line duty? And Hudler too?

Not seeing games sucks.

Things I've Learned Lately

2007-10-29T22:15:00.000-07:00

1. Grad school is, like, hard.
2. NHL Center Ice Online hates me.
3. Zetterberg is god.

Having finally watched my first Wings game of the season yesterday, I'll hopefully resume more regular posting soon, once I have more time and am able to make intelligent commentary. Sorry about the complete disappearance!

Timing = Everything

2007-09-17T11:48:00.001-07:00

I liked Mathieu Schneider when he was here; good guy, played hard, scored a lot of points, and put in, not great, but solid defense. I thought Holland was a bit loony to invest 3.3M of our tiny cap to the aging Schneids after the lockout, but it turned out Ken Holland knows what the fuck he's doing and I don't, generally.

Turns out that's still true. My opinion, and a lot of others' I've seen, has been that the Rafalski signing was a good deal, but that if the Wings were willing to spend that much (6M) on him, why not give Schneider less (~5.6M) on a shorter deal, get arguably more production, and have more flexibility for the future when the Kindls and the Ericssons and the Pyetts show up. Well, here's why.

Now first of all allow me to lawl a little. Not at Schneids, who is a class act, and upon whom I wish nothing bad. But rather at Brian Burke, who is a toolbox, and the decision he made. Okay, lawl over. When Schneids went down this past season for 10 games in February with a knee issue, I remember a quote of his that was something to the effect of "I've never had a knee problem". I also remember him saying he'd had a relatively injury-free career. So these things were good signs to Wings fans who could look upon the knee issue as an freak issue to be disregarded.

But when Schneids hurt his arm on a harmless looking play in the playoffs, Ken Holland, if no one else, probably started considering that while Schneids took great care of himself, and much like Chris Chelios had the ability and the work ethic to keep playing at a high level for a long time, injuries are a whole 'nother ball game. As Steve Yzerman showed, while pure talent and desire to play and win may remain as high as ever as age progresses, the ability of the body to stay injury free and recover from injuries is what deteriorates rapidly with age.

What Holland probably thought after that freak arm injury of Schneider's, was that while Schneids's determination, work ethic, and ability remained high, it might be about to time to sell off in case two health-anomalies in one season for a relatively injury free, but old player meant the beginning of the end. And with another injury, while I'm not saying Schneider's career or production are anywhere near the end of the tunnel, I'm thinking, today Holland deserves credit for another very savvy move.

Catching Up

2007-09-17T09:46:00.000-07:00

So I'm in Chicago now, but still don't have internets or TV, so my ability to follow the various news events or update here is still spotty. Which really sucks because apparently I missed an amazing weekend in sports.

The Tigers swept and are just 4.5 back of the Twins. I will reiterate:

Oh yeah, and I've got the Tigers winning the AL Central.

Jair fucking Jurrjens! Give Jurrjens the 5th spot in the rotation next year. Let Miller develop some more pitches in AAA in '08.

The Lions won! Wow. Who could have predicted that? Me:

I also like the Lions to go 8-8 after a 2-0 start. Yeah, I went there.

Oh yeah and all this Red Wings business. Grigorenko sucks, Downey has steel balls, Koko's a killing machine, Jimmy Howard is Skeletor, etc., etc. Draper is on the wing now. Holland says he scored 24 goals that way and putting him with Fil and Cleary will re-ignite his offensive ways. Hmm, you know, Holland is correct here, Draper did put up some sick numbers as a winger. But, based on these last few years, I wonder how. The guy has the offensive creativity of Andreas Lilja. How many times have you seen this wicked maneuver: Draper streaks up the wing. Draper gets to the circle. Draper fires a slapshot directly into the waiting goaltender's pads. If this is what he does, put him back on the grind line. But for now I'll trust Babcock.

Más luego.

Observation

2007-09-12T18:32:00.000-07:00

Watching the Tigers tonight, with men on 1st and 3rd, I wondered "Why is it called 'runners on the corners'?" I mean when you think about it it's pretty stupid. It's a diamond. They're ALL corners.

ERICSSONWATCH (and also GRIGORENKOWATCH)

2007-09-11T10:05:00.000-07:00

These days, my day pretty much consists of waking up at 1pm and hanging out all day with a toddler. In between watching endless Baby Einstein DVDs, Curious George episodes, coloring, and playing with objects that light up and make noise, sometimes we have to do things the two-year old wants to do. And lately my nephew has taken an interest Jonathan Ericsson, standout converted defenseman, slated to play in Grand Rapids this year.

There appears to be some disagreement about how Ericsson did last night in the Wings' prospects' loss against the Rangers'. Bruce MacLeod calls Ericsson's performance "subpar", but Sarah Lindenau, who has been doing some great work at Red Wings Central, says,

once again impressed with his physical presence and sound defensive game.

Hm. Well regardless of Ericsson's performance last night, few prospects excite me more. And Ericsson's team leading 3 goals (as a d-man!) has Lindenau suggesting he could beat out the likes of Derek Meech and Brent Sopel for the final spot on the D. First of all, that's extremely unlikely since conventional wisdom is that you only let a young prospect on the team if they're playing every day - the exceptions being guys who can no longer be sent down and are on their last chances with the organization, like Meech, Hudler, or Kopecky. Ericsson certainly doesn't qualify.

Now, the question is, if Ericsson really knocks our socks off, does he take the a starting role? Maybe #4 alongside Nik Kronwall? Or perhaps #5, bumping out Brett Lebda? I could imagine Ericsson playing that well; he's clearly very talented and bound to be a top flight d-man for the Wings some day. But I would suggest that the Wings send Ericsson to GR no matter what, given the wall he hit last year. He had 22 points in his first 36 games, but just 7 in his last 31. Ericsson is still getting used to the length and the grind of the North American game, and we can't count on him to go a whole season this year. He needs another year in GR no matter what. Jakub Kindl though? I could see him winning a spot.

And as for Igor Grigor? MacLeod:

Igor Grigorenko needs to do a lot more to make this team. He had a sub-par game against the Rangers. He was above average in a tournament against 18-22 year-olds, a tournament that he could have dominated. He came to camp out of shape. There's still time for Grigorenko, but at the moment, the Red Wings' brass is not impressed.

But Jim Nill, via Lindenau:

The Red Wings are happy with the play of Russian rookie Igor Grigorenko through three games of the prospects tournament.

The 5-foot-10, 209 pound winger has four assists and is a plus-1.

“He’s played pretty well,” Nill said. “He’s really got the head (for the game). He makes plays that guys aren’t ready for, but this has been good just to get him ready for main camp.”

I'm not ready to panic, given Nill's statements. My guess? Grigorenko spends October in Grand Rapids, getting in shape and getting adjusted, then comes up to the big team when his out-clause kicks in on Nov 1. If he's ready at that point he jumps to the second line with Dats, if not he splits time with Hudler or Drake, a la the Hudler/Kopecky arrangement early last season.
If the Wings ate a roster spot and put up with Hudler before he proved himself, they'll do so for Grigorenko.

Sopel, and Reinventing the Power Play

2007-09-10T13:49:00.000-07:00

Word on the street is, the Wings want Brent Sopel to come in for a try-out. Dave at Gorilla Crouch suggests he, Lilja, and Kindl will be duking it out for the 4th D position. Over at A2Y the Chief questions why this guy is still available if he's so good, and why he'll settle for a try-out and not a contract. And, as I write, I see Bruce MacLeod confirms Sopel will be in camp. Whatever the circumstances, I don't see why the Wings should sign this guy, at least to the big club.

He doesn't put up lots of offense. The guy had ten more points than Brett Lebda last season, for a total of 28. TSN's player profile says:

Owns a booming point shot and solid offensive potential. Is a great student of the game and willing to play any style necessary.

Must make better use of his 6-1, 205-pound frame. Can at times make a mental blunder in the defensive zone.

He has offensive potential? At least Kronwall and Lebda are young for all we hear that phrase. And he doesn't look like a defensive stud either. You replace him with Lilja and what do you get? No better on defense, less physicality, oh yeah, and the almighty slapper. Let's talk about that.

The slapshot has been a highly prized tool for the Wings, driving their power play all through the Mathieu Schneider era. When Schneider was hurt, the Wings' PP suffered terribly. The Wings' whole strategy involved getting Schneids the puck, him drilling it at Homer, and the Wings forwards cleaning up down low.

Unfortunately, this strategy does not work in the playoffs. In the playoffs, guys are suddenly willing to sacrifice their body time and time again to block shots, even from the fearsome Schneider. While the slapper is a valuable commodity in the regular season, in the playoffs it becomes dramatically less valuable. The Wings must develop a powerplay that focuses on cycling down low, using the creativity of Datsyuk, Zetterberg, Hudler, and Fil, and crashing the net hard with Homer, Cleary, Franzen, and Grigorenko. As for blueliners, we need guys who can make good passes, move quickly along the line, and can release an accurate shot. The only times Detroit successfully got pucks through was when they had a lot of movement at the blueline. So, Lidstrom, Kronwall, Rafalski, maybe Lebda (given his speed) ... oh yeah, and Meech. Red Wings Central:

Smooth, fluid skater ... great poise with puck ... carries puck up the ice efficiently ... crisp breakout passer ... excellent vision ... good point shot including strong one-timer ... intelligent on power play ...

Sounds like an ideal candidate when it comes to getting quick shots on the move from the blueline. I'm not saying he'll get lots of time, but if the Wings' PP is struggling Babcock would be crazy not to insert this guy, even if as basically a PP specialist. Sopel? HockeyinHD comments on the A2Y post that the Wings might carry him, keep everyone else, and end up with 8 d-men, possible since I don't believe the Wings are carrying a 3rd goalie this year. I could get behind that, especially when you consider this quote via MacLeod:

"We've got six NHL defensemen under contract now," said Holland. "We want to carry seven."

Given that Meech is under contract, that tells me Holland is not counting him when he tallies the seven NHL D-men. Which means, he may be simply getting a roster spot by default, and will be the Wings' eighth D. I'm fine with Sopel or Cullimore filling bench space. But making Sopel the 4th D? He doesn't make sense, and neither does centering your whole PP strategy on a big shot from the point, even if it does bring success in the regular season.

Wings Promo Contest: Fire In... Places

2007-09-10T09:15:00.000-07:00

So I said I would post my second (and very late) entry to A2Y's Fake Promo Contest (you know, the one to replace the Wings' shitty "Fire on Ice" campaign), and that was supposed to happen yesterday. I got a couple of images together, started my photoshop magicks, came up with a few designs, and picked my favorite. Then I realized the picture it was based on is (barely) NSFW.

Well, A2Y is a family site, commonly read by churchgoing schoolchildren, old ladies, and infants. Ergo I don't know whether the Chief will allow it into the contest. But I couldn't let it go to waste so I'll post it anyway (linked of course). Again, all due warning: NSFW (barely).

Fire on Ice! Fire in... Places

GRIGORENKOWATCH: Prospects Tourney

2007-09-09T12:20:00.000-07:00

Introducing a new feature here at YIG, GRIGORENKOWATCH. It's basically where I talk about Igor Grigorenko. I don't know if that qualifies as a feature, so much as something I'm gonna talk about a lot over the course of the upcoming year, but you know. Shutup.

I'll start by doing what any good blogger does, quoting theirself. Here I talked about Igor in what might be considered the first installment of GRIGORENKOWATCH:

There are a lot of open questions about the guy, though. How healed is that leg? How will he transition to the North American game? What will his nickname be? What number will he wear? To me the latter two are the most important.

Hmm, indeed. The number? Looks like it's 21, something I boldly and clearly predicted:

[He] seems to have worn 21 for the WJC U20 team in 2002, and that number has been available for a while now.

Hah, well played, Pete. You left nothing to doubt with that ballsy assertion. As for the nickname? Here's what I had to say back then:

[There are] the following possibilities for Igor: Iggy, Griggy, Grigs, Iggs, Grigger, Igg, and, uh... Gregory. Grigs seems the most likely, but my vote is Gregory. That's just amusing. And let's stay away from Grigger, please.

Hahaha. Who the hell would call him Grigger. Iggy or Grigs are so obvious, I mean... what's that, Bruce MacLeod of Red Wings Corner?

After one power play, Coach Mike Stothers hollered on the bench "Not one f-ing shot on the power play. Grigger, shoot the puck."

Aww, sonuvabitch. Grigger? Seriously? Let's hope this is an invention of Stothers's and won't be adopted by Babcock and the Wings lockerroom.

So where is all this information on Gregory coming from? Well that's the Traverse City Prospect Tournament, currently underway. For the best coverage, go check out one of the RWCs: Red Wings Central or Red Wings Corner. Both sources are covering the crap out of the tourney and it's great. Both sources are also reporting that Grigs has looked strong, with MacLeod calling him "the best offensive forward in the game".

Dallas Drake looks like the 12th forward at this point, and Matt Ellis is as of now probably the 13th. So as of now, Grigorenko is going to have to upend some people to make it, as discussed by the Chief. Later today I'll post my last-minute, second entry to the A2Y Promo Contest.

Glee!

2007-09-08T17:44:00.000-07:00

It may be bad sportsmanship (or, as Neil Patrick Harris says, a dick move) to delight in another team's misery; perhaps the true fan should only revel in his team's success and commend the other side for a game well played. Well, fuck that shit. UM's latest loss has me giddy with... giddiness, I guess. I'm not even that into MSU Football, I mean I follow it but it doesn't really get me going as much as Detroit pro hockey, baseball, or football. I don't really have any analysis (you can read all about it at Gorilla Crouch or TWFE edit: or Quo Vadimus) to offer,but it seems to me that every last Wings blogger is a UM fan, and as such I need to, as the French say, "represent". (To be truly fair, I should also mention my delight in Notre Dame's shitty season thus far... "Charlie Weis" rhymes with "douchebag".)

In other news, I'm, uh, coming around to this Timo Pérez character. Left-handed bat, solid at the plate, solid on defense (although I've noticed he can be slow getting to balls that get past him), with two diving grabs made today (so far...). He and Ryan Raburn might be able to hold down the LF spot pretty well the rest of the year. Plus Inge (HOMERUN!) and Pudge turning it on? Oh yeah, and I've got the Tigers winning the AL Central. CAN YOU HANDLE MY OPTIMISM!? I also like the Lions to go 8-8 after a 2-0 start. Yeah, I went there.

Tomorrow I'll get back on the Red Wings beat with some discussion of the prospects tournament and various other bits.

Breaking News!!!

2007-09-04T17:55:00.000-07:00

What could rouse me from my vacation? With a dearth of hockey and me being in moving-limbo until I settle in my new place in Chicago on the 14th, I've taken some time off from the ol' blagoblag.

Could it be U of M's delightfully soul crushing defeat at the hands of the mighty Appalachians? Would I come back just to frolic and dance in the misery of the Wolverines? Would I come back to ask whether Lloyd Carr will be fired at the end of the season or at the end of the week? Would I come back to expound upon the fact that MSU easily handled their powderpuff? Nah, I wouldn't do any of those things.

No, I came back to discuss, with great excitement, the huge news out of the bay area, of the SJ Sharks' signing of none other than Jeremy Roenick! After questions about the Sharks' post-season production and lack of leadership that led to their ouster in the second round, how about this deft move, bringing in a 28-point scorer and lockerroom distraction! I, for one, am excited about the increased challenge the Sharks will pose to the Red Wings this upcoming year with JR in the lineup.

Back mid-month. In the meantime, looking forward to the Central Division preview, and glad to see Gloveside back in action with a nifty new layout.

The Blueline, the Banner, and the Babe

2007-08-02T20:54:00.000-07:00

Good discussion going on over in the comments of the Chief's latest, on the Wings' D, specifically in regard to the unlikelihood of Danny Markov's return and the value of Brett Lebda. I argue over there that Lebda is a solid 3rd-pair guy but not to get hopes up much higher than that. If the Wings give him a lot of PP time I think he could get 2nd-pair offensive numbers, but with the Wings being as stacked as they are I don't see it really happening. Also at some point the Wings are going to have to choose between Lebda and Meech - they are the same player, and the Wings can't afford to have both these guys on an already very small backcourt.

So with Holland basically saying Meech has the 7th D spot wrapped up, here's my guess for the Wings' D pairings:

Lids - Kronner
Rafalski - Lilja
Lebs - Cheli
Meech

To me Kronner with Nick makes sense because a) Nik Jr. needs to show he's a top d-man, and b) who better to teach him to temper his physical ways. Rafalski/Lilja then is a pretty obvious second pair - one offensive guy, one stay at homer. This makes for a dramatically improved second-unit, defensively speaking, over last year's Schneids/Nik combo. And finally, Lebs goes with the immortal Chris Chelios, and anytime Meech plays, he'd go with the Highlander as well.

Really, Lids, Rafalski, Lebs, and Cheli are all locks to be where they are - Kronner and Lilja are the only question marks. Lils needs to build off of a good postseason, Kronner needs to stay fucking healthy.

In other news I updated my banner. Spiffy, no? Emma Andersson was this close to getting into the banner, right where Dom is currently sprawling. Hey, this gives me a reason to post a picture (specifically, the one I was going to use in the banner:)

Unfortunately her pink bikini and sunny seaside scenery (if I may alliterate) sort of broke up the color scheme with banner so it didn't work out. Damn.